Lord Salisbury said once that if generals were left to their own devices, they might well decide to put garrisons on the Moon to defend us from Mars. Envisioning worst-case scenarios and drawing up contingency plans for them is part of what the military does to get its job right. The problem with this professional reflex is that it often fails to assess comparative risk effectively, and in particular fully account for the risks of unintended consequences or the impacts on others. When it comes to nuclear policy and procurement decisions, the temptation for overkill is high.
Blog
North Korea’s Hydrogen Bomb Test and the Questions It Raises
North Korea announces that it has tested a hydrogen bomb. This raises three questions: Is it true? Should we be worried about it? What can we do about it?
Nuclear-free Mongolia: A Model for Northeast Asia?
For some countries, the response to grave feelings of national vulnerability has been the acquisition of nuclear weapons. Yet the global disarmament movement, and, specifically, advocates for denuclearisation in Northeast Asia have an unlikely yet powerful model of hope – Mongolia.
The impact of cyber vulnerability
On 23 November, the day the Strategic Defence and Security Report (SDSR) was released, former Defence Secretary Lord Browne warned of the possibility that the UK’s nuclear deterrent, Trident, will likely be rendered ‘o
Trident Cost-Saving Options
Trident's costs could be spiralling, as reported this week, though it may be too early to tell. Either way, the government is protecting this huge and most controversial military procurement project whilst deeply controversial welfare cuts are being debated. It is not considering cheaper alternatives even as the MoD itself suffers.
Preventing an Iranian bomb: the case against threatening military action
As the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear program moves into its implementation phase, many are watching with a careful eye to see if and how it will succeed. Western skeptics are undoubtedly waiting to say, “I told you so” if Iran gets caught red handed developing a nuclear weapon capability. Others may be worried about the future, ten years from now when some of the constraints imposed by the deal expire, and how we will contain Iranian ambitions at that point.
Labour and Trident Now
This week's non-debate of Trident at the Labour Party conference is now an opportunity to reframe the issue and set the UK on a more stable path towards a non-nuclear future. But it will take collaboration between people on different sides of the current divide.
Iran, the JCPoA and the Future of the Non-Proliferation Regime
The non-proliferation regime appears to have stagnated since the previous Review Conference in 2010. It involves deep complexity and relies upon shared norms, but these alone are insufficient for states to have the necessary confidence essential to its success.