Lord Salisbury said once that if generals were left to their own devices, they might well decide to put garrisons on the Moon to defend us from Mars. Envisioning worst-case scenarios and drawing up contingency plans for them is part of what the military does to get its job right. The problem with this professional reflex is that it often fails to assess comparative risk effectively, and in particular fully account for the risks of unintended consequences or the impacts on others. When it comes to nuclear policy and procurement decisions, the temptation for overkill is high.
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Will Trident Still Work in the Future?
Developments in anti-submarine warfare could be decisive. Emerging developments in technology that are transforming our lives and already revolutionising the battle-space in air and on land could ensure that submarines will no longer be stealthy in the foreseeable future, however silent they are. This is undeniable, and claims that these risks are minimal to Trident’s future are patently false. The judgement comes in assessing this risk and when it becomes operational, based upon the speed of technology development today, and what countermeasures that could be developed. This briefing outlines the risk and its consequences to the programme.
Reframing the Narrative on Nuclear Weapons
Innovative thinking is needed to overcome deeply entrenched attitudes and slow progress in the shared responsibility to strengthen nuclear non-proliferation measures and achieve global security through nuclear disarmament. This publication represents 14 months of investigation into how future nuclear weapons policy can become more relevant to the concerns and the security of the next generation.
Trident Commission: Evidence, Events and Publicity
Evidence Submissions
During the course of its work, the Commission will seek submissions of evidence from interested parties. Written submissions, with the permission of those submitting evidence, will be published here and organised by theme.These are the initial questions that we are seeking submissions on, and we will be adding more as the commission’s work progresses:
Trident: the need for a comprehensive risk assessment
The Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR), planned for publication on 23 November 2015, is expected to include an update on the Trident renewal project and financial estimates. Main Gate decision is likely to be put to Parliament early 2016. Like every major government project, MoD procurement officials will have conducted a detailed confidential risk analysis for the construction, but this project requires a far broader, comprehensive risk analysis over a set of areas, as listed in this briefing.
Trident Cost-Saving Options
Trident's costs could be spiralling, as reported this week, though it may be too early to tell. Either way, the government is protecting this huge and most controversial military procurement project whilst deeply controversial welfare cuts are being debated. It is not considering cheaper alternatives even as the MoD itself suffers.
Labour and Trident Now
This week's non-debate of Trident at the Labour Party conference is now an opportunity to reframe the issue and set the UK on a more stable path towards a non-nuclear future. But it will take collaboration between people on different sides of the current divide.
Where is the UK government’s nuclear weapons policy heading?
Whichever way you look at it, it seems that the fiscal hawks and disarmament doves have been blown out of the sky and have sunk into a deep blue ocean where the Trident Successor programme stares them head-on.