The third of BASIC's 2016 Parliamentary Briefing series relating to the Trident debate focuses on the issue of continuous-at-sea-deterrence (CASD).
David Cameron announced at the NATO summit in Warsaw on Saturday, “a parliamentary vote [to be held] on July 18 to confirm MP's support for the renewal of four nuclear submarines capable of providing around the clock cover”. Theresa May is expected to follow through with this decision.
The second of BASIC’s 2016 Parliamentary Briefing series relating to the Trident debate is a primer on Trident’s cyber vulnerabilities. Cyber threats impact both critical civilian infrastructure and all military systems dependent upon digital control and communications.
In the wake of the parliamentary vote over a potential Trident successor, Former Assistant Chief of Defence Staff in the Ministry of Defence, John Gower, cited BASIC's three year independent cross-party enquiry on the issue. Gower acknowledged the balanced and inclusive approach BASIC adopted when undertaking the research.
The potential fall-out from the UK vote to leave the EU cannot be over-estimated. The political, economic and constitutional implications are deeply uncertain. The market turmoil and the plunge in the value of the pound will translate into massive financial pressures on government spending. The pressures for constitutional referenda in Scotland and Northern Ireland have just strengthened dramatically.
Whilst the UK media is relishing the drama over Britain’s leaving the EU, speculation this week suggests the Conservative government may rush a Trident vote through the Commons in July. It would do this to move on from a damaged referendum debate, and divert attention to a deeply divided Labour Party. This is clearly a temptation, but if they do go down this route it would represent an infantile inability to delay gratification for much greater political return later. Trident is a goose that just keeps laying the golden eggs for the Conservatives. An early slaughter would be the height of madness. The clever money is on a vote rather closer to or after the end of the year.
Two BASIC papers published in recent months (The Inescapable Net: Unmanned Systems in Anti-Submarine Warfare and A Primer on Trident's Cyber Vulnerabilities), have asserted the UK’s strategic nuclear deterrent is in danger of becoming vulnerable in such a way that it can no longer be relied upon to fulfil its primary role.
Richard Norton-Taylor has written an article for the Guardian on April 26th about the rising costs of Trident and has cited BASIC’s input into the ongoing financial debate.
Andrew Learmonth from the National wrote an article outlining the criticisms of SNP MP, Kirsten Oswald, regarding a recently published factsheet by the UK Government on Trident. The article goes on to cite BASIC in outlining the projected costs of Trident renewal, and pulls quotes directly from a recent publication written by Dr. Nick Ritchie.