On 13th September 2016, BASIC, British Pugwash and the University of Leicester hosted The impact of Emerging Technologies on the Future of SSBNs in Whitehall, London. The conference welcomed contributions from 15 scientific experts and strategic thinkers on the implications of major advances in sonar, non-acoustic detection, new forms of undersea communications and autonomous maritime drones for sea-based deterrence.
Dreadnought to carry Trident, an ominous legacy
The infamous maiden voyage of the Titanic in April 1915 forms a totemic story of…
Disarmament is more about international security than morality
The debate within expert communities over nuclear deterrence and disarmament can be infuriatingly complex and unrelated to the decisions taken in a political context. Disarmament is often dismissed by commentators in both arenas as naive and dangerous, yet it is at root about a cooperative search for security.
Trident Wrapped Up?
It is a mystery why Cameron and then May took Trident to a vote yesterday. OK, so it’s nice to start off with a good strong issue that delivers a comfortable government majority, unites the Party and splits the opposition. But it risks slaughtering the goose that had just kept laying those golden eggs.
The outcome of the Trident vote will not be the last word
Parliament has today voted in favour of the government’s plans to replace the four Vanguard class submarines with Successor submarines, based upon continuous submarine patrolling. This vote may have provided the country’s new Prime Minister Theresa May a quick and immediate opportunity to demonstrate business as usual, a new government keen to get things done post Brexit.
CASD: Options for Trident Patrolling
The third of BASIC's 2016 Parliamentary Briefing series relating to the Trident debate focuses on the issue of continuous-at-sea-deterrence (CASD).
David Cameron announced at the NATO summit in Warsaw on Saturday, “a parliamentary vote [to be held] on July 18 to confirm MP's support for the renewal of four nuclear submarines capable of providing around the clock cover”. Theresa May is expected to follow through with this decision.
Brexit: Impact on Trident
The potential fall-out from the UK vote to leave the EU cannot be over-estimated. The political, economic and constitutional implications are deeply uncertain. The market turmoil and the plunge in the value of the pound will translate into massive financial pressures on government spending. The pressures for constitutional referenda in Scotland and Northern Ireland have just strengthened dramatically.
The role of the nuclear test ban as a non-proliferation and arms control instrument
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) was agreed in 1996 after more than 2000 nuclear tests had left a lasting, poisonous legacy. The treaty’s negotiations had already contributed to the indefinite extension of the NPT the year before (having contributed to the failures of the 1980 and 1990 NPT Review Conferences). Confidence in arms control and disarmament was high, and nuclear arsenals were falling dramatically. Strategic relations were good. But things look very different today, with high levels of distrust and low confidence in achieving further disarmament progress.