This is a hard question to answer because of the complexity in trying to predict the future. We have some idea of what international security challenges we may face in one, five, and even ten years time, but further than that our predictions become educated guesses.
Strategic Stability
The Nuclear Weapon as a Symbol
Being the most powerful and destructive weapon ever conceived by human beings, able to annihilate entire populations, the nuclear weapon is a powerful symbol with multiple dimensions.
The case for complexity
Football, the modern-day opiate of the masses, is a simple passionate game of two teams and one simple, generally zero-sum result. We have a winner and loser; even drawn matches contribute to victory and defeat in the tournament. In attempting to make meaning out of the complexity of regional and sub-regional conflict by reducing it to the binaries of the football pitch, we often make monumental errors.
NATO: Slipping Into Confrontation
NATO defense ministers met in Brussels to discuss the Afghanistan withdrawal and Russia’s actions in Crimea and Ukraine. There are calls for stronger security assurances within the alliance, especially from countries near Russia. President Obama has pledged increased US military presence in Europe. However, NATO’s role remains focused on military rather than cooperative security strategies, which heightens tensions with Russia. This approach risks moving towards a competitive relationship rather than fostering mutual security.
A Glance at the Ukraine Crisis’s Impact on Nuclear Weapons Considerations
This week, eyes are on Ukraine to see whether the presidential election held on Sunday will soon lead to more stability; while many Ukrainians look ahead to the challenge of grappling with the problems that led to the crisis – both internal and external. The crisis intensified dynamics of a deteriorating relationship between NATO and Russia, where prospects had already been bleak for nuclear arms control. The crisis has even led some to call for re-emphasizing the role of nuclear weapons in transatlantic security.
How Do We Change the Global Nuclear Order?
Whenever diplomats get together to address the really big global issues of our time, the already daunting challenges of co-ordination are made more complex by their governments’ competing policy commitments—to economic growth (simplistically conceived), special-interest groups, “national security” and prestige.
Iran nuclear talks and the shadow of the Ukraine crisis
On Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, representatives from Iran and the P5+1: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, plus Germany, will meet in Vienna to continue working toward a comprehensive agreement around Iran’s nuclear program. The last such meeting was held in mid-March – not long after the Russian invasion of Crimea, and some worried that the crisis would set back the talks.
Nuclear Security and the Nuclear Security Summits
Resources from BASIC about Nuclear Security.