2015

1

Trident: the need for a comprehensive risk assessment

The Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR), planned for publication on 23 November 2015, is expected to include an update on the Trident renewal project and financial estimates. Main Gate decision is likely to be put to Parliament early 2016. Like every major government project, MoD procurement officials will have conducted a detailed confidential risk analysis for the construction, but this project requires a far broader, comprehensive risk analysis over a set of areas, as listed in this briefing.

Tactical Nuclear Weapons, NATO and Deterrence

Nuclear sharing arrangements and the active deployment of US theatre nuclear weapons (TNW) in Europe under the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are viewed as critical components of its deterrence posture. Previously, this nuclear posture was aimed at the former Soviet Union (USSR) and Warsaw Pact alliance during the Cold War. Since the end of the Cold War and the absorption of former Warsaw Pact states into NATOthe official justification for those systems remaining is not connected to any specified enemy.

B-61 bomb

Hair Trigger Alert

 Russian aircraft make intrusions into the air space of the Baltic states and skirt the air space of Britain. Russian bombers attack targets in Syria, and America is advised to keep its aircraft out of the way. Russia may have designs on the Baltic States, and is certainly playing a role in Syria. Possibilities arise of a clash that could lead to escalation.

Surviving nuclear zero: A fresh perspective on disarmament in the 21st century

Working with the British American Security Information Council (BASIC), UNA-UK hosted a thought experiment event entitled ‘Surviving Nuclear Zero’ to encourage nuclear experts and students to consider the value states attach to nuclear weapons from a new perspective. The project challenged participants to identify how a post-nuclear UK could protect itself and engage effectively in a world where others still possessed nuclear weapons and where grave threats remained.

We now need an informed Trident debate

 Rising above petty politics

The nature and quality of the media storm since Jeremy Corbyn’s election as leader of the Labour Party, when criticising his open-ended position over the EU, his wearing a peace poppy when remembering past conflicts, or his position on Trident, betrays a group-think pack mentality that is out of touch with the disillusionment of many people with anodyne mainstream positional politics.