This report is written based on a workshop with participation of Russian experts prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While the subsequent events following the Russian invasion have been factored into some of the analysis in the later sections of the report, it does not provide commentary on the war in Ukraine.
This report is the second in a series of four reports that address the current threat assessments and perceptions of nuclear and conventional escalation risks in Eastern Europe and Russia. The report is part of the two-year project ‘Phase 2: Applying a Systematic Approach to NATO-Russia Risk Reduction’ that BASIC is undertaking in collaboration with the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Phase two complements and builds upon the lessons of Phase one (2019-2020) that explored risk and threat assessments in relation to the potential nuclear and conventional escalation primarily among Western NATO member-states. The main finding in Phase one was that the political tensions between Russia and NATO members were at the core of the current and near-future nuclear risks in Europe.
In Phase two BASIC have published three reports covering the deliberations at pre-conflict workshop with NATO’s north-eastern flank countries held online, and two reports during the current conflict. One report based on the deliberations at workshop with government officials and experts from NATO’s north eastern flank countries held in Vilnius in March 2022 and one based on a roundtable held with Russian experts online in June 2022.
This report specifically looks at the current threat and risk assessments in Russia. The report is based on the deliberations of a full day workshop held in December 2021 with the participation of experts from Russia. The workshop was held under the Chatham House Rule.