‘Applying a Systematic Approach to NATO-Russia Risk Reduction: NATO’s North-Eastern Flank Reacts to the War in Ukraine’ is the third in a series of four reports that address the current threat assessments and perceptions of nuclear and conventional escalation risks in Eastern Europe and Russia.
The report is part of the two-year project ‘Applying a Systematic Approach to NATO-Russia Risk Reduction’ that BASIC is undertaking in collaboration with the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The first Phase 2 report found that the historic experiences NATO’s north-eastern flank countries have had with Russia and the West continues to inform threat assessments as does the near proximity to Russia and Russian allies. This arguably manifests itself in a tension between risk and heightened fear which ultimately may feed into an insecurity spiral.
This report has been written following a workshop that took place in Vilnius, with participation of government officials and experts from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. The workshop was held over two days one month after the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine and the workshop agenda was adapted to reflect the current situation. BASIC asked speakers and participants to discuss NATO’s deterrence and defence, risk reduction, off-ramps and humanitarian issues in light of the conflict in Ukraine and the impact this conceivably will have on NATO-Russia relations in the future.
Read the report below: