This op-ed is jointly authored by BASIC Policy Fellows, Mhairi McClafferty and Eva-Nour Repussard
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In early October 2024, we travelled to Islamabad as part of BASIC’s Programme on Nuclear Responsibilities, alongside our colleagues Dr Chiara Cervasio, Alice Spilman, and Dr Nicholas J. Wheeler.
Throughout the visit, we had the privilege of engaging with several esteemed institutions, including the Institute for Strategic Studies, Research and Analysis (ISSRA) at the National Defence University (NDU), as well as stimulating discussions with the School of Politics and International Relations (SPIR) at Quaid-i-Azam University (QAU), the Faculty of Aerospace and Strategic Studies (FASS) at Air University, and the Arms Control & Disarmament Centre (ACDC) at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI).
Our discussions with scholars and experts were profoundly productive, centering on the pressing topics of India-Pakistan crisis management dynamics and the influence of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDTs) on both European and South Asian security landscapes. These exchanges provided a vital platform to present insights from our most recent report, Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia: Mutual Confidence, Risk, and Responsibility.
ISSRA-BASIC Dialogue on European and Pakistani Perspectives on Emerging and Disruptive Technologies
On Tuesday 8th October, the Institute for Strategic Studies, Research and Analysis (ISSRA) at the National Defence University hosted BASIC for a roundtable on European and Pakistani perspectives on EDTs and their implications for strategic stability. The discussion highlighted the disruptive potential of technologies like artificial intelligence and cyber operations, which pose new risks to crisis stability by exacerbating misperceptions and intensifying decision-making under pressure. As we explored these challenges, it became evident that responsible governance and international cooperation are essential to mitigating the destabilising effects of EDTs. Beyond the technological impacts, the roundtable delved into how perspectives of security–especially in tense and rapidly evolving geopolitical contexts like South Asia–can shape crisis dynamics.
A Warm Welcome from Pakistan’s Leading Institutions
Equally enriching were our discussions on crisis prevention and management in South Asia at prestigious universities and think tanks in Islamabad, including QAU, FASS, and ACDC. The BASIC Team was honoured to be hosted at these institutions to engage with the faculty and students and discuss our latest report, Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia: Mutual Confidence, Risk, and Responsibility, which served as the focal point for many conversations.
The report emphasises the delicate yet crucial role of mutual confidence between India and Pakistan in preventing nuclear escalation. Both countries’ confidence in each other’s restraint during crises has been a key factor in maintaining strategic stability. However, this restraint is not without its vulnerabilities, and the risks of miscalculations and misperceptions remain high, especially given the growing influence of EDTs, erosion of reliable crisis management mechanisms, and the diminishing role of trusted third-party mediators.
We also reviewed a range of policy recommendations outlined in our report. These recommendations were developed from Track 2/1.5 dialogues hosted by BASIC in 2023 and 2024, which involved Indian and Pakistani experts. These recommendations, aimed to enhance crisis prevention and management, include initiatives like establishing a South Asian Standing Communications Secretariat (SASCS) to foster expert dialogue, creating a leader-to-leader hotline to avoid miscommunication, developing a CBM Monitor to ensure the effectiveness of confidence-building measures, and fostering mutual understanding and cooperation among next generation scholars and experts in India and Pakistan.
The discussions spurred thoughtful reflections on how EDTs might exacerbate or alleviate future crises, aligning with BASIC’s current project, Addressing Emerging Nuclear Risks to Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia through a Responsibility-Based Approach. The project seeks to strengthen the regime of restraint and responsibility within South Asia by exploring how a responsibility-based approach can mitigate nuclear risks stemming from EDTs. Through these exchanges, it became clear that sustained dialogue and collaboration between South Asian states and global stakeholders are crucial to managing emerging risks, particularly as geopolitical shifts and technological advances reshape the security environment. Trust-building between India and Pakistan, however fragile, remains central to ensuring that tensions are managed effectively, especially in a nuclear context.
Final Thoughts and Thanks
Our trip concluded with a strong sense of optimism and we left Pakistan with a deep sense of gratitude. We were struck not only by the depth and richness of the discussions but also the warm hospitality we received from our Pakistani colleagues. Their openness and willingness to engage on these complex issues made us feel not just welcome but optimistic about the potential for future collaboration on issues of mutual concern.
As we look ahead, we remain committed to fostering dialogue and understanding in South Asia. This trip was not just a milestone in our ongoing work on crisis management and emerging technologies, but also the beginning of what we hope will be deeper collaborative relations with Pakistan’s academic and policy communities.