December 2012
Tim Hare submitted evidence to the Trident Commission, entitled 'The US nuclear guarantee, and possible future threats', answering the following scenarios and questions:
1. Possible future credible threats (capability and intention) to UK and allies that would not sufficiently involve the US, and would not be deterrable by other means
2. Probability that a US nuclear guarantee can be relied upon into the foreseeable future
For those interested in understanding how we can seize opportunities to reduce the threat posed by nuclear weapons and enhance regional and global security, this week sees two significant anniversaries.
On December 3rd 1989, Mikhail Gorbachev and George Bush met in Malta to declare an end to the Cold War after two days of talks.
The International Security Network (ISN) published an article by BASIC's program support officer, Rachel Staley, on the possibility and desirability of nuclear abolition. The article concludes that while abolition may seem an arduous task, few governments would deny the link between non-proliferation and disarmament; if support for non-proliferation is there, there is an obligation to support global nuclear disarmament.
BASIC's executive director, Paul Ingram, was interviewd for 'nonproliferation.eu', the monthly newsletter from the EU Non-Proliferation Consortium. The interview focused on BASIC's work in support of the establishment of a WMD-free zone in the Middle East and how civil society can contribue to the debate. BASIC is hosting a track II meeting in coordination with the Finnish Ambassador, Jaakko Laajava and his team for the end of October in support of the Helsinki Conference to create a WMD-free zone in the Middle East, due to take place in the next few months.
Foreign Ministers from the five recognized nuclear weapons states (NWS) meet on Thursday with members of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). There had been an expectation that the NWS would at last endorse the Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (NWFZ) by signing up to its Protocol, but they are still expressing reservations over the scope of the Treaty and its restriction on the passage of NWS vessels through the surrounding seas. China also has particular concerns that the Treaty treads on its territorial sovereignty – it is already in dispute with ASEAN members over the South China Seas.
Pakistan's first nuclear weapon detonation took place in May 1998, just a few weeks after neighboring country India's first nuclear tests. Pakistan's nuclear weapons are seen as some of the world's most insecure, due to the instability in the region, the threat of terrorism, and the history of clandestine nuclear networks. For years, top Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q.
NATO completed its Deterrence and Defense Posture Review with mixed results. Diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear program picked up pace. A National Academies panel released its updated assessment on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty’s implications for U.S. security, with apparent positive conclusions for supporters.