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Applying a Systematic Approach to NATO-Russia Risk Reduction: Announcing Phase 2 of the BASIC-Netherlands Collaboration

BASIC is delighted to announce that we are continuing our cooperation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands on nuclear risk reduction in Europe in 2021 and 2022. Risk reduction remains an integral priority for European diplomacy as political tensions and distrust among states may increase the likelihood of nuclear and conventional escalation. Reducing the risk of tensions escalating to nuclear war is therefore crucial to ensure a viable and stable relationship between NATO and Russia. 

In Phase 2 of our collaboration with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, BASIC will produce a systematic assessment of risk reduction options in Europe. We will explore risk assessments and risk reduction policies in a total of four track 1.5 dialogues over 18 months with participants from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland in one track, and with Russian participants in a concurrent parallel track. These workshops aim to clarify the current national risk perceptions and assessments, how each of the countries prioritise these risks, and which potential solutions there may be to address some of the risks. 

Phase 1 of the project clearly identified that the political tensions and distrust between Russia and NATO member-states is the most volatile current and near-future nuclear risk in Europe. One of the clear outcomes from Phase 1 was that officials and experts from Russia and Eastern European NATO member-states were important stakeholders for risk reduction in Europe. Phase 2 broadens the scope of participating states to include NATO member-states from Eastern Europe and Russia in order to gain a systematic understanding of risk perceptions, their impact on policies and ways to reduce risks in the relationship between NATO and Russia.

In 2022 we will bring participants from Phase 1 and Phase 2 together in a Strategic Dialogue at the end of the project to lay the groundwork for a common path forward based on our comprehensive findings from both phases of the project. Our aim is to promote mutual reassurance between NATO member-states and Russia as a suitable first step towards de-escalating tensions in the 2025 Review Cycle.

BASIC will provide updates on our findings throughout 2021 and 2022. 

“BASIC’s depth of knowledge and administrative competence makes it an excellent partner in the field of military nuclear capability and arms control”

Sir Jeremy Greenstock, GCMG British diplomat

“At a time when transatlantic relationships are under tension, BASIC's role as a source of authoritative analysis is more important than ever.”

Baron Rees of Ludlow Astronomer Royal

“BASIC makes a vital contribution to sustaining recognition that nearly 35 years after the end of the Cold War nuclear weapons continue to put at risk the future of humankind. BASIC is especially to be commended for doing this by fostering dialogue and understanding.”

Peter Jenkins CMG UK Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency 2001-06

``For about 35 years, in the pursuit of nuclear disarmament, BASIC have championed the cause of mutuality of security. Their ability to engage diversity of views and opinion has attracted deserved admiration.``

Baron Browne of Ladyton Vice Chairman, Nuclear Threat Initiative and former UK Secretary of State for Defence

``For more than three decades, BASIC has challenged conventional thinking on national security matters, and inspired new ways of addressing and solving old problems. I expect it to continue to play this vital role for decades to come.``

Andreas Persbo Director, Open Nuclear Network
Contact

If you would like to contact individual members of our team, you can find our email addresses on the staff page.

+44 20 3488 6974

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