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Analysis

Evidence Submitted by Ward Wilson

JUNE 2012

Ward Wilson uses historical accounts to present the argument that nuclear deterrence does not work. In fact, Wilson argues that it has failed a number of times, and some of those failures have come close to war. Wilson writes, “Nuclear weapons are niether as capable of influencing military conflicts nor as effective at political persuasion as was once though. Nuclear deterrence appears to be seriously flawed: it is far more prone to failure than proponents of nuclear weapons would have us believe.”

Click the link below to read the full document.

Iran Nuclear Deal Prospects Dim Amid Embargo

Paul Ingram, executive director of BASIC, was quoted in an article by Jonathan Tirone, Ilya Arkhipov and Henry Meyer on Bloomberg Businessweek about the E3+3 (P5+1) talks with Iran in Moscow this week. Political tensions are high as there has been much preparation for this meeting on Iran's nuclear program.

Getting to Zero Update

NATO completed its Deterrence and Defense Posture Review with mixed results. Diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear program picked up pace. A National Academies panel released its updated assessment on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty’s implications for U.S. security, with apparent positive conclusions for supporters.

Country Report: India

India is a nuclear weapon state, but since it is not party to the NPT, its nuclear weapons program is not under the same regulations nor does the country have the same obligations as the NPT nuclear weapon states. This, coupled with India's relationship with the U.S. and volatile history with neighboring country, Pakistan, which also possesses nuclear weapons, makes India an important country to watch. BASIC monitors India's nuclear weapons program in its Getting to Zero Updates.

BASIC News: May – June 2012

NATO leaders met at their summit in Chicago on May 20-21 to agree on, amongst other things, the text arising from the Deterrence and Defence Posture Review that had been 18 months in process. BASIC has been organizing roundtables around Europe, Moscow and Washington alongside the Arms Control Association, IFSH (Hamburg), and local partners to discuss nuclear-related issues with officials and others to influence the discussion. The DDPR does not close this debate, but rather opens it up over the next few years.

“BASIC’s depth of knowledge and administrative competence makes it an excellent partner in the field of military nuclear capability and arms control”

Sir Jeremy Greenstock, GCMG British diplomat

“At a time when transatlantic relationships are under tension, BASIC's role as a source of authoritative analysis is more important than ever.”

Baron Rees of Ludlow Astronomer Royal

“BASIC makes a vital contribution to sustaining recognition that nearly 35 years after the end of the Cold War nuclear weapons continue to put at risk the future of humankind. BASIC is especially to be commended for doing this by fostering dialogue and understanding.”

Peter Jenkins CMG UK Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency 2001-06

``For about 35 years, in the pursuit of nuclear disarmament, BASIC have championed the cause of mutuality of security. Their ability to engage diversity of views and opinion has attracted deserved admiration.``

Baron Browne of Ladyton Vice Chairman, Nuclear Threat Initiative and former UK Secretary of State for Defence

``For more than three decades, BASIC has challenged conventional thinking on national security matters, and inspired new ways of addressing and solving old problems. I expect it to continue to play this vital role for decades to come.``

Andreas Persbo Director, Open Nuclear Network
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