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Political developments around nuclear weapons and the “butterfly effect”

During the past month or two, getting to zero has seemed to resemble the early phase of the butterfly effect of Chaos Theory. The thinking goes as follows: the movement of air caused by a butterfly flapping his wings could contribute to the formation of a hurricane, or other major weather event. Without that one extra factor of the flapping of the butterfly's wings, the event may not have occurred. Of course, the flapping of a butterfly's wings alone cannot cause a weather event.

Iran update: number 134

Summary

  • Iran and US delegations clash again at the NPT PrepCom
  • Tehran further clarifies its priorities in the upcoming negotiations with the E3+3; won't suspend enrichment; EU endorses proposed meetings between E3+3 and Iran
  • US Senate Foreign Relations Committee releases report on Iran; Congress introduces more proposals for sanctions
  • Gates tours Middle East to discuss negotiations with Arab allies
  • Iranian court releases Iranian-American journalist convicted of spying
  • Israeli military leaders say they have continued preparati

Iran update: number 133

Summary

  • Iran looks ready to accept invitation from P5+1, remains adamant about its right to continue its nuclear program
  • US announces that it will participate fully in P5+1 nuclear talks with Iran
  • Presidential candidate in Iran suggests that he may support verification measures
  • Officials from Obama administration reveal latest developments in Iran policy deliberations
  • Iran plans to launch another, more sophisticated satellite
  • Iran proclaims progress in its nuclear production capabilities, but analysts express skepticism

Maintaining focus in negotiations for a START successor

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev's recent announcement that Russia will be upgrading its military forces in the face of Western encroachment (among other reasons) underscores the tenuousness of US-Russian relations. Despite enthusiasm shown by both sides for strengthening ties under President Obama, Washington and Moscow have very different, often conflicting, strategic interests.

Iran update: number 132

Summary

  • The IAEA releases its latest report on Iran
  • US intelligence officials indicate that Tehran is far off from producing a nuclear weapon
  • Iran launches its first satellite into orbit and plans to expand its launch capabilities
  • Testing phase at the Bushehr reactor site begins
  • President Obama addresses Iranian government, calling for improved relations while expanding sanctions
  • Tehran responds with cautious optimism, but also frustration
  • Iran invited to international security conference on Afghanistan
  • US

“BASIC’s depth of knowledge and administrative competence makes it an excellent partner in the field of military nuclear capability and arms control”

Sir Jeremy Greenstock, GCMG British diplomat

“At a time when transatlantic relationships are under tension, BASIC's role as a source of authoritative analysis is more important than ever.”

Baron Rees of Ludlow Astronomer Royal

“BASIC makes a vital contribution to sustaining recognition that nearly 35 years after the end of the Cold War nuclear weapons continue to put at risk the future of humankind. BASIC is especially to be commended for doing this by fostering dialogue and understanding.”

Peter Jenkins CMG UK Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency 2001-06

``For about 35 years, in the pursuit of nuclear disarmament, BASIC have championed the cause of mutuality of security. Their ability to engage diversity of views and opinion has attracted deserved admiration.``

Baron Browne of Ladyton Vice Chairman, Nuclear Threat Initiative and former UK Secretary of State for Defence

``For more than three decades, BASIC has challenged conventional thinking on national security matters, and inspired new ways of addressing and solving old problems. I expect it to continue to play this vital role for decades to come.``

Andreas Persbo Director, Open Nuclear Network
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