The May 2025 India-Pakistan crisis marked the most severe military confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours since the 1971 India-Pakistan War. The crisis began following a terrorist attack on 22 April in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), which killed 26 people. India accused Pakistan of orchestrating the attack and responded on 7 May by launching punitive precision strikes across the international border aimed at suspected terrorist infrastructures in Pakistan. Over the following days, both sides engaged in intense military exchanges involving missiles and drone strikes, artillery fire, and cross-border shelling. The confrontation concluded on the evening of 10 May, when a ceasefire was announced after an agreement between the two states was reached through the hotline between the Director-General’s Military Operations (DGMO) of both countries and diplomatic engagement, facilitated primarily by the United States.
This report examines how escalation and de-escalation unfolded during the crisis, with a particular focus on how practitioners and expert communities in India and Pakistan perceived these dynamics. Drawing on 30 semi-structured interviews with experts, former diplomats, and military personnel from both countries and triangulating these insights with other sources of data (e.g., speeches, statements by political and military leaders and officials, print and online media reporting and commentary, and publications that have come out on both sides since the end of the crisis), the report provides a fascinating, hitherto unexplored window into how the two nuclear policy communities understood the crisis starting point, the management of escalation, and the mechanisms that enabled de-escalation.
The report also examines how the crisis ultimately de-escalated, emphasising the role of confidence-building measures, face-saving narratives, and the role of third parties. Overall, it highlights the central role of perceptions in shaping both escalation and de-escalation during the May 2025 crisis and underscores the enduring challenges of crisis prevention and management in South Asia.
Read the report below:
