Applying a Systematic Approach to NATO-Russia Risk Reduction: Perspectives from the North-Eastern Flank addresses the current threat assessments and perceptions of nuclear and conventional escalation risks in Eastern Europe and Russia.
The report is part of the two-year project ‘Applying a Systematic Approach to NATO-Russia Risk Reduction’ that BASIC is undertaking in collaboration with the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The report finds that the historic experiences NATO’s north-eastern flank countries have had with Russia and the West continues to inform current threat and risk assessments as does the near proximity to Russia and Russian allies. This arguably manifests itself in a tension between risk and heightened fear which ultimately may feed into an insecurity spiral.
With the current situation in Europe the risk of escalation of conflict between Russia and NATO is real. It is paramount that diplomacy and the risk reduction agenda between NATO and Russia is revitalised. The report has unearthed at least two perspectives that are important to the revitalisation of this risk reduction agenda. First, risk reduction between NATO and Russia is also about disentangling actual risk from fear – on both sides. Second, understanding and conclusions about Russian intentionality cannot rest on overstretched concepts and assumptions.
Read the report below: