During the past month or two, getting to zero has seemed to resemble the early phase of the butterfly effect of Chaos Theory. The thinking goes as follows: the movement of air caused by a butterfly flapping his wings could contribute to the formation of a hurricane, or other major weather event. Without that one extra factor of the flapping of the butterfly's wings, the event may not have occurred. Of course, the flapping of a butterfly's wings alone cannot cause a weather event.
Programmes
Iran update: number 134
Summary
- Iran and US delegations clash again at the NPT PrepCom
- Tehran further clarifies its priorities in the upcoming negotiations with the E3+3; won't suspend enrichment; EU endorses proposed meetings between E3+3 and Iran
- US Senate Foreign Relations Committee releases report on Iran; Congress introduces more proposals for sanctions
- Gates tours Middle East to discuss negotiations with Arab allies
- Iranian court releases Iranian-American journalist convicted of spying
- Israeli military leaders say they have continued preparati
NATO nuclear burden sharing and NPT obligations
NATO's major review of its Strategic Concept will cover all aspects of its strategic policy, including its nuclear posture, including the issue of US warheads in European non-nuclear states, which threatens the cohesion of the NPT.
Obama’s nuclear diplomacy
Barack Obama has called for a world free of nuclear weapons and has committed to reducing their number and salience during his administration. His continuing engagement with allies and Russia on nuclear arms control, and the results of posture reviews back home, could result in significant progress.
Iran update: number 133
Summary
- Iran looks ready to accept invitation from P5+1, remains adamant about its right to continue its nuclear program
- US announces that it will participate fully in P5+1 nuclear talks with Iran
- Presidential candidate in Iran suggests that he may support verification measures
- Officials from Obama administration reveal latest developments in Iran policy deliberations
- Iran plans to launch another, more sophisticated satellite
- Iran proclaims progress in its nuclear production capabilities, but analysts express skepticism
Maintaining focus in negotiations for a START successor
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev's recent announcement that Russia will be upgrading its military forces in the face of Western encroachment (among other reasons) underscores the tenuousness of US-Russian relations. Despite enthusiasm shown by both sides for strengthening ties under President Obama, Washington and Moscow have very different, often conflicting, strategic interests.
NATO’s nuclear posture in the context of the Strategic Concept review
In partnership with the New America Foundation (NAF), BASIC hosted a breakfast discussion on NATO\’s nuclear posture within the context of the Strategic Concept review.
The meeting was held at the Cosmos Club in Washington, DC with around 30 participants – including representatives from NATO-member embassies and U.S. government offices.
Iran update: number 132
Summary
- The IAEA releases its latest report on Iran
- US intelligence officials indicate that Tehran is far off from producing a nuclear weapon
- Iran launches its first satellite into orbit and plans to expand its launch capabilities
- Testing phase at the Bushehr reactor site begins
- President Obama addresses Iranian government, calling for improved relations while expanding sanctions
- Tehran responds with cautious optimism, but also frustration
- Iran invited to international security conference on Afghanistan
- US