Evidence submitted by Sir David Omand, GBC. Visiting Professor, Department of War Studies, King’s College London

MAY 2011

We benefit from the collective security arrangements of the North Atlantic Alliance including a framework of deterrence extended from the US to its European allies. As a result, the future risk of the UK becoming engaged in conflict remains very low. However, we know how unpredictable the international security environment can turn out to be. Looking ahead several decades we could be surprised by new and unforeseen threats; thus, we have no objective justification for seeking major changes today in the collective security that our NATO membership provides.

Evidence submitted by General Sir Hugh Beach, a former Master-General of the Ordnance

APRIL 2011

Advocates of Trident replacement argue that the core reason is to deter other states that possess nuclear weapons from engaging in nuclear blackmail. However this does not represent the whole picture as the historical record does not support this view.

Evidence submitted by Profs. Keith Barnham, David Caplin, Tom Kibble and Jenny Nelson, Imperial College London

MARCH 2011

British nuclear weapons have never had credible independent military value. They were acquired and have been maintained as an expensive exercise in political and diplomatic prestige; primarily to impress and influence allies rather than deter adversaries. Whether that approach was ever worthwhile is questionable, but it is certainly no longer valid.

Iran Update: Number 158

Verdict on first round of talks between P5+1 and Iran broadly positive; second round confirmed
Countries forced to ‘substantially’ cut down oil imports from Iran to avoid U.S. sanctions; Obama orders technology sanctions against Iran
Arrests made in connection to assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty meeting, elections in Iran and France

The first annual NPT Preparatory Committee in the 2015 round begins today. With a full work plan agreed in May 2010, delegates have a varied agenda, but it seems likely that Iran’s nuclear programme will form a shadow over discussions in Vienna.

Themes arising from the BASIC Workshop in Doha

About 50 participants – representatives of Gulf states and experts from the region, and U.S. and European experts and officials, exchanged views on Nuclear Non-Proliferation in the Gulf during a conference on March 21st and 22nd. The workshop highlighted a number of themes, including: justice and rights, disarmament, universality and the health of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and Iran.

Nuclear weapons budget battles

Knives are out in the initial skirmishes over the fiscal 2013 funding for the nuclear weapons complex in the U.S., as a key appropriations committee meets this week.

Norway’s Approach to NATO’s Deterrence and Defence Posture Review

NATO is currently debating its nuclear posture as part of the Deterrence and Defence Posture Review, for discussion at the May 2012 Chicago summit. This could have an important bearing on the future direction for NATO – an Alliance bent on maintaining superior and comprehensive capabilities, or one that plays a proactive role in multilateral disarmament.

Programmes