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Brief: The False Binary: Consensus Versus Failure and the 2026 NPT Review Conference

The False Binary: Consensus Versus Failure and the 2026 NPT Review Conference critically examines the range of outcome options available at the 2026 NPT Review Conference. The brief argues that the value and durability of Review Conference outcomes depend more on substance than on form, and that States Parties possess meaningful agency in choosing the outcome format best suited to prevailing conditions.

The brief is organised into four sections:

  • The first section traces historical variation in NPT Review Conference outcome documents from 1975 to 2022.
  • The second section examines the extent to which consensus serves as a useful measure of progress in the NPT review process.
  • The third section assesses the strengths and challenges associated with a range of possible outcome formats for the 2026 Review Conference, including both consensus and non-consensus options.
  • The final section argues against framing the choice as one of “consensus or failure” and calls instead for greater willingness to consider the full spectrum of outcome options available at the 2026 NPT Review Conference.

The research is part of BASIC’s “NPT Support Project”, which is generously funded by the UK Government’s Counter Proliferation and Arms Control Centre (CPACC). The report does not reflect the views of the UK Government.

Read the report below:

msasbrief

 

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Baron Browne of Ladyton Vice Chairman, Nuclear Threat Initiative and former UK Secretary of State for Defence

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Andreas Persbo Director, Open Nuclear Network
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