Future arms control measures between the major powers are likely to be multilateral and asymmetric and cut across weapon systems and strategic domains. Yet, the growing complexity of the international system – in terms of the sheer number of actors, security interests and perceptions, weapon systems, and the feedback loops between them – makes it difficult for policymakers to identify workable multilateral agreements. Couple this complexity with emerging technologies (or novel use cases for existing ones), and the picture muddies further.
In this report, BASIC mapped 22 technological trends that may influence one of three areas of arms control in the future: a) the form and function of the nuclear weapons themselves, b) the monitoring and verification of arms control agreements, and, c) the conditions in which any new agreement must be negotiated. Each technological trend was assessed for the mechanism by which it influences arms control in future should it develop to its potential, the level of influence it would exert on arms control at its potential peak, the outlook for that trend given the current state of play and future challenges; and the indicators or issues to monitor that might indicate rapid progression of that trend.
The result was clear: emerging technologies will drastically change the world in which nuclear weapons exist, but not the weapons themselves.
Read the full report below.
