Edited by Eva-Nour Repussard, Dr Nicholas J. Wheeler, and Dr Chiara Cervasio.
Emerging and Disruptive Technologies in South Asia: Perceptions of Risks and Responsibilities in Crisis Management and Prevention explores the impact of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDTs) on crisis management and prevention in South Asia. This report is a product of a STREAM survey and two dialogues conducted by BASIC in 2024 and 2025 with members of the Indian and Pakistan nuclear policy communities at the track 2/1.5 level.
The report examines how “near-term” EDTs–those currently in development or expected to emerge over the next 5-10 years–impact India and Pakistan’s capacities to manage and prevent crises. The key argument of the report is that technological asymmetries–exacerbated by strategic partnerships and technology transfers–and the perceptions around them will significantly shape how these technologies influence crisis behaviour. The findings highlight the tendency of both countries to assume the worst about each other’s technological advancements while underestimating their developments might be perceived as threatening. This dynamic, where offensive and defensive capabilities are often indistinguishable, underscores the urgent need for crisis prevention and management mechanisms.
The report is structured into three key part:
- Part A: Perceptions of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies on Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia, by Eva-Nour Repussard
Part A explores the findings from a STREAM survey that BASIC conducted with Indian, Pakistani, and international experts assessing the impact of EDTs on crisis prevention and management. Two key insights emerge: i) a ‘Maturity-Perception Effect’, where the more mature a technology is, the more disruptive its perceived impact; and ii) a bias where nationals from the country developing an EDT tend to view its impact more positively than those from a country that is technologically less advanced.
- Part B: Unpacking EDT Perceptions: Drivers and Implications for Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia, by Mhairi McClafferty
Part B offers insights from a BASIC track 2/1.5 dialogue held in Manama in November 2024. The dialogue sought to qualitatively test the survey findings and examined whether India and Pakistan share similar concerns regarding the risks posed by EDTs, potentially creating new opportunities for cooperation. Participants debated the extent to which EDTs could undermine the “culture of restraint” that has historically contributed to crisis management in South Asia.
- Part C: Addressing Emerging Technology Risks for Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia, by Dr Rabia Akhtar, Ruhee Neog, Hina Pandey, and Dr Adil Sultan
Part C presents policy proposals and responsible practices developed from a BASIC track 2/1.5 dialogue held in Istanbul in February 2025. This action adopts a solution-orientated pragmatic approach, aiming to mitigate the risks that EDTs pose to crisis stability by reducing anxieties around preemption and establishing a framework of cooperation to prevent future crises.
The report is part of BASIC’s project ‘Addressing Emerging Nuclear Risks to Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia Through a Responsibility-Based Approach’, generously funded by the UK Government’s Counter Proliferation and Arms Control Centre (CPACC). The report does not reflect the views of the UK Government.
Read the report below:
