In a comprehensive report ‘Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia: Mutual Confidence, Risk, and Responsibility‘, BASIC assessed the effectiveness of crisis management mechanisms in de-escalating India-Pakistan crises. A key finding was that mutual confidence in each side’s restraint has prevented crises from escalating to the nuclear level.
The rise of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) globally and in South Asia however, raises concerns about maintaining restraint in this new strategic environment. To address this, BASIC launched the 2024–2025 project, ‘Addressing Emerging Nuclear Risks to Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia through a Responsibility-Based Approach‘ that aims to strengthen restraint and responsibility by examining how India and Pakistan can mitigate nuclear risks posed by EDTs over the next 5–10 years, and as part of this effort, BASIC conducted a survey to assess perceptions of EDT threats in South Asia.
Based on the survey data, several observations can be drawn:
- AI for information warfare appears as the most controversial EDT with regard to its maturity level;
- There is a ‘Maturity-Perception Effect’, in which overall, the more mature a technology is, the more disruptive it is perceived with regard to crisis prevention and management; and
- There is a potential bias in which nationals of the country which possesses and is developing the EDT perceives it more positively than participants from the country that does not have the technology developed to the same degree.
- Quantum for C4ISR is uniquely regarded as beneficial for crisis prevention and management across all surveyed groups.
Read it here:
This report will be part of a larger BASIC publication which will be out in March 2025.