Over 2024/2025, BASIC’s Nuclear Responsibilities Programme ran the project ‘Addressing Emerging Nuclear Risks to Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia Through a Responsibility-Based Approach’, generously funded by the UK Government’s Counter Proliferation and Arms Control Centre. This project has explored how emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) could impact India-Pakistan crisis prevention and management, with a focus on how a responsibility-based approach could help mitigate the risks posed by these technologies over the next 5 to 10 years.
The project produced three major outputs, each providing insights into security dynamics in South Asia:
1. A STREAM Survey:
BASIC conducted a STREAM survey aimed at understanding how EDTs are perceived in South Asia by identifying which technologies were seen to present the greatest challenges and opportunities for crisis prevention and management. The survey collected responses from experts across South Asia, as well as experts from outside of the region, who have expertise on EDTs and the regional security landscape.
Key findings include:
- AI for Information Warfare: AI was widely regarded as the most controversial EDT. Respondents expressed concerns about the maturity level and the potential destabilising effects on crisis prevention and management due to its application in information warfare.
- The Maturity-Perception Effect: A compelling observation emerged: the more mature a technology was perceived to be, the more disruptive it was seen in the context of crisis prevention and management. This “Maturity-Perception Effect” revealed a significant correlation between technological development and perceived risk.
- Strategic Bias: Another notable finding was strategic bias–respondents from countries that possessed and were developing certain EDTs often perceived them more positively than those from countries that lagged behind. This discrepancy reinforced existing national insecurities and perceptions of strategic competition.
- Quantum for C4ISR: Interestingly, quantum technologies, particularly for Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, and Surveillance (C4ISR), were seen as uniquely beneficial for crisis prevention and management. This perception was consistent across all surveyed groups, highlighting the potential for quantum technologies to bridge some gaps in regional security.
A detailed report of the survey findings, written by Eva-Nour Repussard, can be found here.
2. Dialogue I: Exploring Perceptions of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies in South Asia
Building on the insights from the STREAM survey, BASIC hosted a Track 1.5 dialogue in Manama, Bahrain, in November 2024. The event brought together Indian and Pakistani experts and current/former officials (acting in their personal capacity) to explore perceptions of EDTs in South Asia and unpack the drivers of these perceptions.
One of the key takeaways from the dialogue was the impact of long standing distrust between India and Pakistan, which shapes how each country perceives the other’s technological advancements. Decision-makers on both sides interpret EDTs through a lens of strategic insecurity, often assuming the worst about the other’s intentions. Cognitive biases–such as worst case scenario thinking–amplify these fears, making it difficult to see EDTs as stabilising, even when intended for defensive purposes.
Participants also highlighted how both Indian and Pakistani decision-makers frame their own advancements as necessary for national security, while perceiving the other’s developments as destabilising. This reinforces the security dilemma, as defensive measures are often perceived as having offensive purposes. For example, India sees its investments in missile defence technologies as necessary for deterrence, while Pakistan perceives them as a threat to its nuclear stability. Similarly, Pakistan’s advancements–such as Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs)–are viewed by India as escalatory. This cycle of mutual distrust complicates efforts to establish cooperative security mechanisms.
The dialogue explored the challenges EDTs pose to crisis management. Participants highlighted the dual-nature of EDTs which blur the line between defensive and offensive actions, complicating crisis management and prevention efforts. The rapid pace at which these technologies operate compresses decision-making timelines, increasing the risks of miscalculations and unintended escalation. A lack of regional governance mechanisms further exacerbates these risks.
Discussions also underscored how technology asymmetries and strategic partnerships deepen insecurity. India’s ties with the United States and its progress in quantum and missile defence technologies heighten Pakistan’s concerns, while Pakistan’s growing alignment with China raises alarm in India. Participants noted that these strategic partnerships contribute to widening technological gaps, reinforcing distrust, and increasing potential for instability.
The dialogue concluded with a broad agreement on the urgent need for regional mechanisms to manage the risks of EDTs. While perspectives on specific technologies differed, participants agreed on the importance of greater transparency, dialogue, and confidence-building measures to prevent further regional instability.
3. Dialogue II: Addressing Emerging Technology Risks: Strengthening Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia
Following the dialogue in Manama, BASIC convened a Track 1.5. dialogue in Istanbul, Türkiye, in February 2025. This dialogue also brought together Indian and Pakistani experts and current/former officials (acting in their personal capacity) to discuss how EDTs impact crisis prevention and management in South Asia and explore paths for mitigating these risks through responsible practices.
Discussions underscored the challenges of regulating EDTs. Given their dual-use nature–which blurs the line between civilian and military applications–it is challenging to establish clear regional regulatory frameworks. Additionally, concerns were raised over AI-driven military decision-making, which could accelerate crises by reducing human oversight and increasing the likelihood of miscalculations.
Looking at the Ukraine conflict, experts discussed the role of EDTs in international crises escalation. While Pakistani participants highlighted their significance, particularly in information warfare, cyber operations, and reduced decision-making timelines, Indian participants placed less emphasis on their impact. Despite these differing perspectives, the dialogue emphasised that similar risks could emerge in South Asia without clear norms and governance mechanisms on the development and use of EDTs in crisis settings.
To mitigate these risks, the dialogue explored several potential measures, including the establishment of regional risk reduction centers, public-private collaboration to manage technological developments responsibly. Bilateral agreements and enhanced crisis communications mechanisms, such as improved hotlines, were also highlighted as key tools for reducing tensions. Additionally, expanding Track 1.5 and Track 2 initiatives and structured dialogues to discuss shared risks were seen as essential steps towards strengthening crisis prevention and management in South Asia.
The project has highlighted the complex role of EDTs in South Asia’s security landscape. While these technologies pose significant risks to crisis prevention and management, they also present potential opportunities for India and Pakistan to collaborate on enhancing regional stability. A comprehensive BASIC report detailing the project’s findings and insights will be published in Spring 2025, offering a deeper analysis and recommendations on responsible practices for strengthening crisis prevention and management in South Asia.