Read below to get the most up to date Getting to Zero country reports or click the links below for a chronological history of the following countries:
The recent cost escalation of the B61 Life Extension Program (LEP) was cited as a growing concern during a Senate Appropriations Subcommitteehearing on the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile. The National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) cost estimate for the B61 Life Extension Program (LEP) has doubled, now reaching a total of $8 billion. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (Democrat-California) who was presiding over the hearing, disclosed that the Department of Defense’s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) office has produced an even higher estimate, at $10 billion. After adding the expense of a new guided tail kit, each bomb may cost upwards of $28 million each, according to an estimate by Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. The B61 serves both strategic and tactical aircraft. About 200 of the 400 estimated B61 bombs are based in Europe as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements.
Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said on August 1 during a House Armed Services Committee hearing that sequestration would negatively affect the research and development work for the Ohio-class submarine replacement program (SSBN-X), with the potential for eventually slowing down the overall program.
The Obama administration has reportedly completed the Presidential Nuclear Guidance, a process which includes determining the future size of the United States’ launch-ready nuclear weapons forces. The Associated Press was reporting that the process may lead to a new number for the deployed nuclear arsenal between 1,000 and 1,100 weapons. Although the guidance has been anticipated for months, the administration might wait for an official announcement until after the November presidential election.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) released an unclassified report on changes in nuclear weapons targeting since 1991. The report concludes that:
“The fundamental objectives of U.S. nuclear deterrence policy have remained largely consistent since 1991, even as the threat environment and the size of the nuclear weapons stockpile have changed. The current process for developing nuclear targeting and employment guidance has remained consistent. However, the structure of the nuclear war plan, and the categories and number of targets in the plan, have changed.”
An 82-year-old nun and two other peace activists breached security at the Y-12 nuclear weapons plant in Oakridge, Tennessee on July 28. The protesters reportedly broke through three security fences and reached a storage warehouse for bomb-grade uranium. The breach has led to security reviews and the temporary shut-down of operations at the plant.
Michael Krepon, Arms Control Wonk, August 12, 2012
- New charge has anti-war protesters facing up to 10 years for breaching nuclear weapons plant
AP via The Washington Post, August 9, 2012
- U.S. Strategic Command 2012 Deterrence Symposium
Remarks of Rose Gottemoeller, Acting Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security, in Omaha, Nebraska, August 9, 2012
- U.S. general asks cut in nuclear stockpile
Bryan Bender, Boston Globe, August 6, 2012
- Hearing on Sequestration Implementation Options and the Effects on National Defense: Administration Perspectives
House Armed Services Committee, August 1, 2012
- Extended Nuclear Deterrence in Northeast Asia
Jeffrey Lewis, Nautilus Institute Special Report, August 1, 2012
- Nonproliferation and Disarmament: What’s the Connection and What Does that Mean for U.S. Security and Obama Administration Policy?
House Subcommittee on Strategic Forces hearing, August 1, 2012
- Strategic Weapons: Changes in the Nuclear Weapons Targeting Process Since 1991
United States Government Accountability Office, July 21, 2012
- B61-12: NNSA’s Gold-Plated Nuclear Bomb Project
Hans Kristensen, FAS Strategic Security Blog, July 26, 2012
- Do We Need ICBMs?
Jeffrey Lewis, Arms Control Wonk, July 19, 2012
- 13 minutes to doomsday
Editorial Board, The Washington Post, July 8, 2012
- AP sources: US moving on nuke arms cuts decision
Robert Burns, AP via Yahoo! News, July 3, 2012
- Obama Close to Deciding on Size of Launch-Ready Nuke Arsenal
Global Security Newswire, July 3, 2012
- U.S. Releases Updated Plutonium Inventory Report
NNSA Press Release, June 29, 2012
- House Passes Key Anti-Nuclear Terrorism Legislation; Senate Up Next
Kingston Reif, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Nukes of Hazard blog, June 28, 2012
- Tracking Pit Production
Stephen Young, All Things Nuclear (Union of Concerned Scientists blog), June 25, 2012
- The Incredible Shrinking SSBN(X)
Commander Michael J. Dobbs, ISN (Ret.), Proceedings Magazine, June 2012, Vol. 138/6/1,312
The Scottish National Party (SNP) is considering dropping its opposition to joining NATO, should Scotland eventually become independent, citing Denmark and Norway as possible role models for an independent Scotland that would be part of the Alliance without hosting nuclear weapons. The SNPstrongly opposes nuclear weapons while Scotland currently bases UKTrident nuclear forces, which are also considered linked to NATO’s overall strategic deterrent forces. However, the SNP was facing challenges bySNP Scottish Members of Parliament who are opposed to changing the 30-year policy against NATO membership. The SNP plans to choose its formal position on NATO membership in October during its party conference, with a referendum on Scottish independence scheduled for 2014.
The Ministry of Defence has released data indicating that the United Kingdom’s nuclear-armed submarine fleet suffered 74 fires over the past 25 years, with one taking place on a docked vessel. The government contends that none of the blazes ever had an impact on nuclear safety or the ability to operate the submarines.
The Ministry of Defence signed a 15-year contract with ABL Alliance for support of the Trident strategic weapon system at the Clyde naval base in Scotland. The ABL Alliance consists of AWE, Babcock, and Lockheed Martin UK Strategic Systems, and will provide support at Faslane and Coulport, the two primary sites at the Clyde base, where the submarines are kept and the warheads are stored, respectively.
- NATO rebels don’t go far enough, says MSP as rifts deepen within SNP
Andrew Whitaker, The Scotsman, August 10, 2012
- Nuclear weapons role in Scotland for private firms
Press Association, The Guardian, July 27, 2012
- MOD signs Trident support contract
UK Ministry of Defence, Defence Policy and Business News, July 27, 2012
- Alarm about lack of a plan for Trident if UK breaks up
Michael Settle, The Herald (Scotland), July 24, 2012
- Why nuclear weapons and NATO membership are not separate issues
Lord Robertson, letter to The Herald (Scotland), July 21, 2012 (Response to The Herald View from July 17, 2012)
- British Ballistic Missile Subs Endure 74 Blazes over Quarter Century
Global Security Newswire, July 9, 2012
- Minister defends £1.1bn nuclear submarine deal
BBC News, June 18, 2012
- SNP set to drop opposition to NATO
Carola Hoyos, Financial Times, June 17, 2012
The new Borey-class ballistic missile submarines are beginning to enter service. Russia plans to have two operational boats by the end of 2012, and at least ten of these boats operating by 2020. The Russian navy will initially operate the two Borey-class submarines as part of the Northern fleet, and then move the boats to the Pacific. Each submarine may carry up to 16 new Bulava missiles with a range of about 8,000km/5,000 miles; with each missile capable of holding 6-10 warheads. Additionally, top military officials are predicting the planned long-range “PAK DA” strategic bomber may be ready by 2020, five years earlier than originally projected. During a meeting on national defense at the end of July, President Vladimir Putin said, “By 2020 the share of up-to-date arms in the strategic nuclear weapons [arsenal] should reach 75-85 percent, in the aerospace defense system – at least 70 percent.”
- Putin pushes nuclear, space defense reform
RT News, July 26, 2012
- New Russian Bomber Could Enter Service in 2020
Global Security Newswire, July 2, 2012
- Russian Missile, Sub to Join Active Force
Global Security Newswire, June 29, 2012
- Prospective Air Complex for Long Range Aviation (PAK DA)
Global Security.org (page last updated March 7, 2012)
No further progress was reported over the North Korea nuclear stand-off, although North Korean and U.S. officials met unofficially during the first half of July to discuss the possibility of reviving the February 29th food aid deal. The deal was cancelled in April after North Korea attempted to launch a satellite, which violated Pyongyang’s promise to halt work on its nuclear and missile programs as part of the arrangement.
Speculation rose again over a possible imminent third North Korean nuclear test, based on several indicators including satellite images and seismic data. Other developments pointed to Pyongyang’s intentions to move ahead with development of a nuclear weapons program. Pyongyang has reportedly been procuring materials from several sources, allegedly including China. Recent reports citing a North Korean Worker’s Party document indicated that before he died Kim Jong Il authorized the large scale production of nuclear weapons using uranium.
- Update on North Korean Light Water Reactor Construction Project
David Albright and Robert Avagyan, ISIS Reports, August 14, 2012
- North Korea capable of new nuclear test ‘within two weeks’
Julian Borger, The Guardian Global Security blog, August 9, 2012
- Contemplating a third nuclear test in North Korea
Frank V. Pabian and Siegfried Hecker, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, August 6, 2012
- Ex-North Korean Leader Authorized Mass Assembly of HEUWarheads: Report
Global Security Newswire, July 2, 2012
- China and DPRK Sanctions-Busting
Mark Hibbs, Arms Control Wonk, June 24, 2012
India & Pakistan
India continued a series of nuclear-capable missile tests, including the land-based Agni 1 with a range of 700km/435 miles and the K-15, India’s firstsubmarine-fired high-altitude missile with a range of 750km/466 miles. India also announced plans to work with Russia to test experimentalhypersonic cruise missiles within five years. India’s first nuclear-powered submarine, the INS Arihant, eventually to be armed with nuclear weapons, was set for its first sea trials. However, completion of the vesselis reportedly months behind schedule.
According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ most recent assessment on India’s nuclear arsenal, released in July, India has enough weapons-grade plutonium for about 100-130 nuclear warheads. However, available information pertinent to nuclear-capable delivery vehicles leads to a lower estimate of about 80-100 nuclear warheads in India’s arsenal.
A Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report from the end of June indicates that Pakistan is elevating its nuclear posture, in particular by continuing with the production of plutonium for atomic warheads as well as increasing the deployment of delivery vehicles.
Western states are pressuring China to address concerns about its plans to help Pakistan expand a nuclear power plant. China has longstanding nuclear ties to Pakistan and is planning to provide two more reactors to the Chashma nuclear power complex.
- India tests nuclear-ready missile
UPI, August 9, 2012
- Pakistan Might Lower Threshold for Nuke Use Against India, Report Says
Global Security Newswire, August 9, 2012
- Work on Indian Ballistic Missile Sub Running Behind Schedule
Global Security Newswire, August 8, 2012
- India’s First Nuclear Submarine
AFP via Defense News, August 7, 2012
- Indian nuclear forces, 2012
Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2012, Vol. 68, No. 4, p. 96-101
- Indian Agni 1 Missile Flies in Trial
Global Security Newswire, July 13, 2012
- Testing of India-Russia Hypersonic Cruise Missile May Come in 2017
Global Security Newswire, June 29, 2012
- West worried by China-Pakistan atomic ties: sources
Fredrik Dahl, Reuters, June 27, 2012
- Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons: Proliferation and Security Issues
Paul K. Kerr, and Mary Beth Nikitin, Congressional Research Service Report available on the website of the Federation of American Scientists, June 26, 2012
- India to Protect Major Cities From Ballistic Missiles
Global Security Newswire, June 25, 2012
IAEA reports that Iran has added more centrifuges at underground enrichment facility, but additional centrifuges not operating
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released its latest report on November 16th, detailing Iran’s nuclear activities. Since the IAEA’s previous report, Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 20% U235 has grown by 43kg. This takes the total amount of 20% enriched uranium to around 130kg (Iran has fabricated almost 100kg into fuel destined for the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR), and so is not available for further enrichment). It would require an estimated 250kg of 20% U235 for a bomb – IF this amount were further enriched to weapons-grade (90% enrichment level).
The report also found that while no additional centrifuges have been made operational at either the Fordow or Natanz enrichment plants, the Fordow plant has now been fitted with the maximum capacity of centrifuges it can hold while the number at Natanz has also increased. It is thought that Iran now has the capacity to enrich about 25kg of 20% uranium 235 a month as opposed to its current rate of 15kg, if these centrifuges were all operating. At this pace Iran would reach the threshold of Israel’s stated red line (250kg of 20% U235) in an estimated seven months.
Iranian authorities have so far refused access to the Parchin military site for IAEA inspectors. Suspicion remains that Iran has been sanitizing the site, and the IAEA has again concluded that it cannot say with any level of confidence that Iranian nuclear facilities are being used for purely peaceful activities. To the contrary, Iranian ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, claimed that the report had once again confirmed the peaceful aims of Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran and IAEA to resume talks on December 13th
In another attempt to break the impasse between the IAEA and Iran, officials announced that representatives will meet in Tehran starting December 13th. In particular, the meeting is expected to provide another chance for an agreement on how to address Iran’s suspected clean-up of evidence at Parchin. IAEA Director-General Yukiya Amano remained optimistic that next month’s projected talks with Iran could yield results: “It is in the interests of Iran, and for the international community, and that is why I believe that there is some good reason that Iran will get cooperative for us. At the same time, the situation is very difficult and worrying. I do not want to speculate.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi sounded confident about the talks, saying that a framework of action on addressing suspected military activities related to the nuclear program could still be reached. However, Salehi denied that there has been a removal of evidence from Parchin, saying, “It is not possible to clean up signs of nuclear pollution.”
On November 21st, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton will host the E3+3/P5+1 (US, UK, China, Russia, France, and Germany) to plan the next steps the group will take with Iran. Within a week after U.S. President Barack Obama’s re-election, he pledged to renew efforts to break the impasse, but denied reports that the United States would talk directly on a higher, bi-lateral level with Iran.
Iran says willing to attend conference for Middle East zone free of weapons of mass destruction
On November 6th, Iran announced its intention to attend the intergovernmental conference in Helsinki next month on a nuclear and WMD free zone in the Middle East. Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA, made the announcement at a Track II conference sponsored by the EU Non-proliferation Consortium in Brussels, on confidence-building measures in support of establishing the zone. Soltanieh stated: “The Islamic Republic of Iran now finally has decided to participate at the conference… on a Middle East (nuclear) Free Zone” and is “determined to participate actively”.
There are many who remain doubtful that the 2012 Conference, as it has been coined, will actually take place this year. Prospects for this conference to convene were never certain, and there is speculation circulating that the conference has been cancelled. Indeed, many political factors stand in the way, but the official facilitator, Finnish diplomat Jaakko Laajava, has not yet made an announcement either way. Laajava recently said: “Many issues regarding the meeting remain open. One essential target is to get every country in the region to participate in the conference.” This will remain a struggle due to prolonged tension between states in the region, Syria’s ongoing civil war, the resurgence of fighting between Israel and Hamas, Israel’s assumed possession of nuclear weapons and the fact that Israel is not a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
On the same day that Iran confirmed its attendance at the Helsinki Conference, the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence published an analysis assessing the possible threat of nuclear confrontation. The report is entitled “Reasons and Obstacles of a Military Attack by the Zionist Regime Against Iran” and emphasizes that diplomatic channels should be pursued, stipulating that “one of the options is to take diplomatic and political measures and use the potentials [sic] of international bodies, which is a necessary and less costly option”.[For more background on a Middle East zone free of WMD, see the recent report on a Track II meeting that BASIC held in Istanbul at the end of October.]
Close calls regarding Israeli attacks on Iran come to light
In a recent visit to London, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak described in an interview with the Daily Telegraph how Iran narrowly avoided an imminent attack in August when it removed over a third of its stockpile of enriched uranium to 20% U235 for the TRR. Barak explained that Iran delayed Israeli action for a period of “eight to ten months” but was also sure to take note of his administration’s enduring belief that sanctions and diplomacy were no solution.
A November 6th televised Israeli report suggested that in 2010, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Barak asked the Israeli military to prepare for an imminent strike against elements of Iran’s nuclear fuel cycle. However, these orders were blocked due to concerns over whether the military possessed sufficient capabilities for such a strike and whether the Prime Minister and Defence Minister alone had the authority to give such an order.
Britain may not cooperate in any military attack by the United States and Israel
While the United States has yet to make a formal request of Britain, the possibility that it could ask permission for use of British bases (in particular Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean) may have led to internal advice within the British government against giving any green light for legal reasons. London is reported to have indicated that it does not currently support a preventive strike upon Iran. Prime Minister David Cameron sent a strong message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently when he said sanctions needed more time. However, Cameron’s spokeswomen also explained that “no option is off the table” when it comes to the Iranian situation.
EU reinforcing sanctions against Iran
The Council of the European Union broadened EU restrictive measures against Iran on October 15th, including “…the financial, trade, energy and transport sectors, as well as additional designations, notably of entities active in the oil and gas industry”. All transactions between European and Iranian banks are prohibited under the new measures, “unless authorised in advance under strict conditions with exemptions for humanitarian needs”, and included an intensification of sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran. While reiterating concerns over the Iranian nuclear program, the Council again underlined its hope that diplomatic channels may remain the priority in efforts to establish a solution to the problem.
In addition to the Council’s statement, French President Francois Hollande made a further call for stringent sanctions against Iran during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Paris on October 31st. Speaking about Iran’s nuclear program, Hollande said “it’s a threat that cannot be accepted by France” and that “we must make sure that through pressure, sanctions and later through negotiations, Iran renounces its intentions to have access to nuclear weapons”. Iran has already renounced its path to nuclear weapons. Hollande did, however, make sure to explicitly distance himself from Netanyahu’s apparent intentions to pursue military action.
In Iran, senior legislator Kazzem Jalali called the sanctions “illegal and inhumane”, saying that it was the Iranian people who were bearing the brunt of them and making explicit mention of the fact that medical imports are also being impacted upon.
Iran fires upon U.S. drone
In early-November, Iranian fighter planes fired upon a U.S. Predator drone. A Pentagon spokesperson said that the drone had been fired upon even though it was flying in international waters during a “routine exercise”. U.S. officials said that the drone was flying 16 nautical miles off the coast of Iran. (Iranian territory starts at 12 nautical miles).
The Iranian Defense Minister has since confirmed that warplanes did, in fact, fire upon the drones and then followed it for a while until it was further from Iranian airspace. It remains unclear, however, as to whether the Iranian intention was to shoot down the drone or simply if shots were fired as a warning to leave the vicinity. The United States issued a diplomatic protest to the Iranian authorities through the Swiss Embassy. Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi announced that Iran would be carrying out large scale air defense manoeuvres starting around November 17th, and are expected to last a week.
Iran’s nuclear power plant likely experiencing more problems
Amidst signs of continuing troubles for the Bushehr nuclear reactor, Tehran has announced that it will now take over operation of the facility from Russian engineers early next year, rather than in 2012. The Bushehr plant is not seen as a proliferation threat but is inspected by the IAEA, and the older design of the plant has raised safety concerns. The IAEA’s most recent report on Iran’s nuclear activities mentions that the facility’s nuclear rods were removed, suggesting that the scale of Bushehr’s technical problems has been much larger than the Iranian authorities had previously admitted. After the release of the report, Iran’s representative to the IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh, contended that the procedure was a normal technical manoeuvre related to the handover of the plant from Russian engineers.
Stories and Links
- World powers to mull improving Iran offer: diplomats
AFP via Yahoo! News, November 20, 2012
- Iran defends “normal procedures” at Bushehr nuclear plant
Reuters, November 18, 2012
- IAEA report confirms Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful: Soltanieh
Tehran Times, November 18, 2012
- IAEA: Iran ready to boost uranium enrichment
Al Jazeera, November 17, 2012
- Iran ready to double uranium enrichment at Fordo – IAEABBC, November 16, 2012
- Iran steps up pace and capacity of uranium enrichment, says IAEA report
Julian Borger, The Guardian, November 16, 2012
- Senior MP: Western Sanctions Designed to Harm Iranian People
Fars News Agency, November 13, 2012
- IAEA: Iran cleanup of Parchin site ‘ongoing’
Arab News, November 12, 2012
- Iran preparing to take control of Bushehr nuclear plant
Tehran Times, November 12, 2012
- Iran expresses hope of deal on nuclear watchdog visit to Parchin
Reuters, November 12, 2012
- IAEA chief: Iran continuing nuclear cleanup at Parchin
Haaretz, November 11, 2012
- Diplomats: Mideast nuke talks called off
Associated Press, November 11, 2012
- Iran says repelled unidentified plane from its airspace
Reuters, November 9, 2012
- Iran, U.N. nuclear agency to resume talks in December
Reuters, November 9, 2012
- Iran says it will hold ‘massive’ week-long air defense drill as tensions with West escalate
Associated Press, November 8, 2012
- Iran Fired on Military Drone in First Such Attack, U.S. Says
Thom Shanker and Rick Gladestone, The New York Times, November 8, 2012
- Iran hints at possible new delay in atom power plant’s operation
Reuters, November 8, 2012
- Iranian ministry suggests openness to talks
Jason Rezaian, The Washington Post, November 7, 2012
- Obama victory opens negotiating window with Iran
Marcus George, Reuters, November 7, 2012
- Britain could build up its military presence in the Gulf to counter Iran threat
Christopher Hope, The Telegraph, November 6, 2012
- Iran to take part in talks on nuclear-free Middle East
Adrian Croft, Reuters, November 6, 2012
- Israel and Iran hold ‘positive’ nuclear talks in Brussels
Julian Borger, The Guardian, November 5, 2012
- Iran Sanctions Take Unexpected Toll on Medical Imports Thomas Erdbrink
Thomas Erdbrink, The New York Times, November 2, 2012
- Sudan: the new battlefield in Iran and Israel’s covert conflict
David Howden, The Independent, October 31, 2012
- Iran warships leave Sudan after four-day stay
Reuters, October 31, 2012
- Netanyahu Visits France to Press for More Iran Sanctions
Jonathan Ferziger and Helene Fouquet, Bloomberg Businessweek, October 31, 2012
- Israel’s Netanyahu , France’s Hollande push for tougher Iran sanctions
The Washington Post, October 31 2012
- Iran temporarily put nuclear bomb ambitions on hold: Barak
Agence France Presse, Oct 30, 2012
- Israel says Iran has pulled back from the brink of nuclear weapon – for now
David Blair, The Telegraph, October 30, 2012
- Clinton renews call to Iran for ‘serious’ nuclear talks
Daily Star, October 30, 2012
- Sudan denies Iranian Links to bombed factory,
Al Jazeera , October 30, 2012
- Iran aims to defy sanctions through domestic production
Jason Rezaian, The Washington Post, October 28, 2012
- EU MEPs cancel Iran visit over rights activists contact
BBC, October 27, 2012
- Britain says opposed to strike on Iran “at this moment”
Reuters, October 26, 2012
- Senior Iranian figures push for compromise over nuclear issue
David Blair, The Telegraph, October 26, 2012
- Iran’s currency traders forced underground
Najmeh Bozorgmehr, Financial Times, October 26, 2012
- Iran military action not ‘right course at this time’, Downing Street says
Patrick Wintour and Nick Hopkins, The Guardian, October 26, 2012
- Now is not the time to strike Iran, David Cameron urges Israel
Robert Winnett, The Telegraph, October 16, 2012