The British American Security Information Council (BASIC) plays the role of an independent advisor to decision-makers and state officials, providing research-based policy analysis and advice, and spaces for dialogue on pressing international security matters. The following statement responds to the recent exchange of strikes between Israel, the United States, and Iran starting in June 2025.
BASIC is gravely concerned by recent military actions involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, which risk triggering a volatile regional conflict in the Middle East, as well as the potential for global economic upheaval through oil market and trade disruption.
Reports of a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran are welcome, but cannot be taken for granted. All parties must now adhere to and build upon this fragile agreement to achieve a more sustainable set of regional security arrangements. A narrow window now exists for all parties to recalibrate their relationships without losing face, but this opportunity will rapidly disappear in the event of further military escalation.
Washington should continue to reaffirm President Trump’s initial contention that the American bombings on the Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan nuclear facilities were a “one-off” strike, and make a public commitment not to further escalate the conflict or support regime change operations in Iran. How the US acts now will have long lasting ramifications for its credibility as a negotiating partner in the coming months and years.
Having itself accepted that Israel’s stated objectives of disrupting Iran’s nuclear development have been achieved, Israeli leadership should accept that continued escalation risks drawing the country into a protracted conflict without a clear endgame in sight, and should consequently adhere to the US-brokered ceasefire in good faith and seek to expand it to include other regional neighbours. Israel can also take this opportunity to declare its possession of nuclear weapons, and commit itself to the goals of a Weapons of Mass Destruction-free Zone in the Middle East and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty membership.
Tehran, which now has limited escalation options at its disposal, should resist domestic pressures to perpetuate the crisis through military counterstrikes or by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which could trigger a self-defeating global economic shock. Iranian leadership should instead adhere to the ceasefire with Israel, and work towards sanctions relief and regional security guarantees, and IAEA verification of compliance with its non-proliferation obligations.
The effects of these attacks have implications that extend beyond the immediate term. The recent strikes have involved the use of force against the territorial integrity of a sovereign nation without sanction by the UN Security Council, while certain other attacks have involved breaches of the law of armed conflict by hitting hospitals and other civilian targets, all of which challenge the international legal framework developed since World War II.
The attacks also reinforce a dangerous logic that military power, rather than international law and norms, ensures state survival – a line of reasoning that incentivises states to develop their own nuclear weapons. The importance of reasserting the centrality of international law by the international community and throughout the region cannot be overstated.
There remains time for the concerned parties to implement the ceasefire in the interests of sustainable regional and international security – followed by comprehensive negotiations that address political relations, and regional arms control and disarmament, supported by international organisations, civil society, and states from both inside and outside the Middle East. BASIC remains ready and willing to support states in their dialogue to this end.
Photograph/RawPixel (Creative Commons)
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