 Getting
to Zero Update
9 February 2009
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IN THIS ISSUE:
BASIC and Getting to Zero (GTZ)
Wilton Park Conference
BASIC's Executive Director, Paul Ingram, facilitated one of
the workshops and presented its findings 'NPT - fit for purpose?',
at the Wilton Park 2008 NPT conference, 'Nuclear Non-proliferation
at the Crossroads?' December 15 to 19. Several conclusions
were reached, not least that a principal problem is the lack
of connectivity between all the global non-proliferation and
disarmament tools to ensure effectiveness and a greater effort
made to establish a spirit of cooperation and recognize the
common interests involved.
The conference, reflecting the recent election of U.S. President
Barack Obama and the building of momentum for breakthroughs
in arms control, as a whole was generally more positive about
the prospects for movement towards zero than previous years.
As an important pre-conference for diplomats and think-tankers
involved in the lead-up to the NPT Preparatory Committee in
New York in May, this was important.
Politics around U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in European
host states
Why the NATO summit this April may be the start of a roll
back for NATO's tactical nuclear weapons.
Claudine Lamond and Paul Ingram, BASIC Getting to Zero
Paper, No. 11, January 15, 2009.
http://www.basicint.org/gtz/gtz11.htm
Visit the GTZ BLOG and post
a comment!
Commitments to Disarmament and Arms Control
More calls for reductions in nuclear arsenals
On February 4, U.K. Foreign Secretary David Miliband laid
out a three-condition, six-step proposal
to achieve the long-term goal of abolishing nuclear weapons
worldwide. He called on NPT-member states to enhance nonproliferation
and security efforts, and for current nuclear-weapons states,
including the United Kingdom, to reduce the size of their
respective arsenals. Emphasizing the importance of dialogue
and confidence-building among these states, he further explained
that collective security regimes could enforce the global
ban and "maintain international security in a world without
[nuclear weapons]."
On January 16, three British Generals: Field Marshal Lord
Bramall, General Lord Ramsbotham, and General Sir Hugh Beach,
had written an article
in the Times calling for the United Kingdom to forego
its nuclear arsenal, explaining that "... major-player
status in the international military scene is more likely
to find expression through effective, strategically mobile
conventional forces, capable of taking out pinpoint targets..."
They conclude, "Rather than perpetuating Trident, the
case is much stronger for funding our Armed Forces with what
they need to meet the commitments actually laid upon them.
In the present economic climate it may well prove impossible
to afford both." In an interview
with the BBC, former NATO Commander, General Jack Sheehan
(U.S.-ret.) said that the United Kingdom could be close to
giving up Trident. BASIC issued a media
advisory and Paul Ingram a blog
posting on the General's statement.
Four German
statesmen: Helmut Schmidt (Social Democrat), Chancellor 1974-1982;
Richard von Weizsdcker (Christian Democrat), President 1984-1994;
Egon Bahr, Minister in Social Democratic governments and an
architect of "ostpolitik;" and Hans-Dietrich Genscher
(Free Democrats), Foreign Minister 1974-1992, published an
article in the International Herald Tribune in which they
put forth a plan for "drastically reducing the number
of nuclear warheads." German Foreign Minister Frank Walter
Steinmeier expressed
a similar attitude in his open letter to then President-Elect
Barack Obama on January 12, "Only when Russia and the
U.S. take the lead [in global disarmament] will we be able
to effectively counter the uncontrolled proliferation of nuclear
weapons."
On behalf of the European Union, French President Nicolas
Sarkozy called
for a revival of the nuclear weapons reduction movement in
a letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in early December.
President Sarkozy reaffirmed his proposal for an international
ban on nuclear weapons testing, a moratorium on the production
of all fissile materials, and a universal inspection regime.
He also urged Russia and the United States to make progress
in their efforts to negotiate a successor to START. France
concluded its six-month Presidency of the EU at the end of
December.
Such calls for global partnership and nuclear arms reduction
are reflected in the program put forward by a newly-created
organization: Global
Zero. Made up of 100 past and current world leaders, Global
Zero seeks to rid the world of nuclear weapons within the
next 25 years. This group convened for the first
time early in December in Paris.
Munich Security Conference
On February 7, top officials convened the prestigious security
conference
in Munich, Germany. U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden said
that elements of the START
treaty, including verification procedures, must continue to
steer global attempts to curtail nuclear proliferation, and
cited the United States' and Russia's "special obligation"
to pursue nonproliferation. Russian foreign minister Sergei
Ivanov praised the speech, calling it a "very
positive" development for U.S.-Russian relations.
Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger also spoke,
delivering a comprehensive speech on the state of the international
nonproliferation regime. He described Iran and North Korea
as the two most dangerous threats to nonproliferation. He
also called for disarmament using a gradual approach. "Affirming
the desirability of the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons,
we have concentrated on the steps that are achievable and
verifiable," he said.
START update
A U.S. delegation under the Bush Administration met
with Russian officials on December 17 to negotiate a controversial
extension or replacement of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty
(START), which will expire in December 2009. Moscow, concerned
in part with the Pentagon’s plan to place conventional warheads
on Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), wants a comprehensive
treaty that would impose limits on both
nuclear and conventional weapons. The Bush Administration
had been advocating a successor to START that would cover
only nuclear warheads. But officials from the Obama administration
have recently
stated that they will pursue a "more traditional, legally
binding" arms reduction process with Russia, adding that
a post-START treaty might commit both sides to a nuclear arsenal
as low as 1,000. On February 5, U.S. State Department spokesman
Robert Wood commented that the administration was "deeply
committed to reducing the numbers [of warheads]." Last
December, then President-Elect Obama sent
Henry Kissinger, who has good relations with the Kremlin,
to Moscow to discuss issues related to disarmament and missile
defense.
U.S. Ratifies IAEA Additional Protocol
After hanging in limbo since its approval by the U.S. Senate
in 2004, former President Bush formally approved
of an Additional Protocol to the U.S. inspections agreement
with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Protocol
allows IAEA inspectors greater freedom of action vis-à-vis
a nation's nuclear program, including short-notice inspections
and the monitoring of environmental conditions which may indicate
covert nuclear activity. The U.S. version, however, is much
different
than the 1997 Model, and serves a primarily educational function.
The United States is not required to submit to the more invasive
stipulations of the 1997 Model since it is officially recognized
under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a nuclear-weapons
state. But by agreeing to the Protocol, Washington hopes to
persuade other countries to agree to the terms of the 1997
Model. The Protocol officially took effect
on January 6.
Central Asian Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone
In December, Kazakhstan's upper house of parliament approved
the Central Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty. This treaty
prohibits the development, production, or acquisition of nuclear
weapons and other related materials in the zone. It must be
approved by Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev before
it takes effect. Kazakhstan was one of the original signers
to the treaty when it was drafted in 2006. The United States,
as well as French and British leaders, have not recognized
the treaty because of several problems
they perceive, including that the treaty could allow Russia
to transfer nuclear weapons to the treaty members under provisions
permitting military assistance.
Further Reading
- Taking Steps Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons
Panel discussion with Sam Nunn, George Shultz, Sidney Drell,
and David Sanger, hosted by Bob Schieffer at the Center
for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington,
DC, January 29, 2009
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/events/090130_schieffer.pdf
- Taming the Nuclear Dragon: A global nonproliferation
treaty is in serious
danger of falling apart
Stephen M. Younger (formerly led nuclear research and development
for
Los Alamos National Laboratory), Wall Street Journal essay,
January 10, 2009
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123154631955669739.html?mod
- Nuclear Arms Control: The Strategic Offensive Reductions
Treaty
Amy F. Woolf, Congressional Research Service report, updated
December 30, 2008
(Available via the Website of the Federation of American
Scientists)
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL31448.pdf
- Strategic Arms Control After START: Issues and Options
Amy Woolf, Congressional Research Service report, December
23, 2008
(Available via the Website of the Federation of American
Scientists)
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R40084.pdf
Country Reports
United States
Strategic Posture Review Commission
The Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the
United States released an interim report
in December. The panel has been led by former defense secretaries
William J. Perry and James R. Schlesinger. Citing the nuclear
programs of Iran and North Korea as well as nations that already
possess nuclear weapons, the commission reported that proliferation
has reached a "tipping
point" which could lead to a serious international
crisis within the first year of the Obama presidency. The
main danger, according to the panel, is that "as each
nuclear power is added, the probability of a terror group
getting a nuclear bomb increases." It advised the President
to make nonproliferation a top priority in his national security
strategy. They further suggested more dialogue with Russia
and ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
(CTBT). Regarding Washington's own nuclear arsenal, the panel
recognized eliminating global nuclear stockpiles as an important
priority while reaffirming the need for a credible deterrent
prior to global elimination.
Task Force Review of the DOD Nuclear Mission
James Schlesinger also headed a task force review of the nuclear
mission of the Defense Department, which concluded with the
release of a final Phase II report
in December. The Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, set up
the Task Force on Nuclear Weapons Management in June 2008,
after a series of systems failures resulted in the loss and
mishandling of nuclear warheads and related material. The
report found a "lack of interest in and attention to"
the nuclear mission throughout the Defense Department but
also recommended the United States maintain
its tactical nuclear weapons in Europe and modernize its nuclear
warheads on cruise missiles. Phase I focused specifically
on the Air Force’s management of nuclear weapons.
Strong commitments in the Obama-Biden Plan
On the Agenda
section of the White House website, President Obama and Vice
President Biden declare that they will pursue the "goal
of a world without nuclear weapons." In an effort to
work toward this goal, they pledge to "stop the development
of new nuclear weapons; work with Russia to take U.S. and
Russian ballistic missiles off hair trigger alert; seek dramatic
reductions in U.S. and Russian stockpiles of nuclear weapons
and material; and set a goal to expand the U.S.-Russian ban
on intermediate-range missiles so that the agreement is global."
The agenda also mentions President Obama's vow to secure all
loose nuclear material during his first term. The page also
says that the United States will maintain a "strong deterrent
as long as nuclear weapons exist."
Commitments made during cabinet confirmation hearings;
Senate Foreign Relations Chair on CTBT
In her confirmation hearing, then Secretary of State-designate
Hillary Rodham Clinton emphasized
the importance of global efforts to prevent proliferation,
saying that the Obama Administration "will place great
importance on strengthening the NPT and the nonproliferation
regime in general." Clinton called for an expansion of
the IAEA and its budget, broader jurisdiction and more stringent
verification procedures. She also voiced her support for an
international nuclear fuel bank. During his confirmation hearing
for Energy Secretary, Steven Chu remarked in his opening statement,
before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources,
that the work of the National Nuclear Security Administration
should in part be geared toward "a long-run vision of
a world without nuclear weapons." On a related note,
Senator John Kerry, the newly-appointed Chair of the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, also said
in an interview with Reuters on January 12 that he would seek
to revive the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) on nuclear
weapons.
Global Strike
On January 12, the U.S. Air Force launched
the provisional Global Strike Command (GSC) at Bolling Air
Force Base near Washington, DC. This provisional force, led
by Brigadier General James Kowalski, will be replaced by the
permanent command in September.
GAO finds NNSA to be a "high risk" area
On January 22, the Government Accountability Office (GAO)
submitted a report
to Congress which discussed the status of a number of government
agencies. The report found that the DOE's National Nuclear
Security Administration (NNSA) continues to have significant
problems with budget and project management, making it a "high
risk for fraud, abuse, waste, and mismanagement." The
report cited a number of major projects in which the NNSA
exceeded original costs by billions of dollars, urging the
DOE to comply with management requirements and to strengthen
accountability. Employing these measures becomes more important,
the GAO added, as the NNSA begins to modernize the nation's
nuclear weapons production facilities, a project costing "tens
of billions of dollars."
Further Reading
- Nuclear Weapons in U.S. National Security Policy:
Past, Present and Prospects
Amy F. Woolf, Congressional Research Service Report,
updated December 30, 2008
(Available via the Website of the Federation of American
Scientists)
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34226.pdf
United Kingdom
Nuclear weapons technology sharing with the United States
The Guardian reported
on February 9th that the United States may have been using
the UK Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE) for research into
the development of its own nuclear weapons. The U.K.-based
Chatham House and the U.S.-based Center
for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conducted
an interview last year with John Harvey, policy and planning
director at the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration,
who said that the United States was borrowing British technological
capabilities that have proven to be "very valuable"
for the U.S. nuclear weapons program. His remarks have raised
questions as to whether the United Kingdom has been assisting
the United States with the development of new nuclear weapons
and a possible variant of the Reliable Replacement Warhead
(RRW) program. Harvey said that the United States and Britain
recently amended the Mutual Defence Agreement, which could
allow for cooperation on an RRW program. (For background
information, see the following report on BASIC's Website:
1958
Mutual Defence Agreement, including information on a June
2004 amendment.)
Plans for new UK nuclear weapons plant
Earlier in January, the AWE submitted
plans to build a replacement nuclear warhead production and
dismantlement facility in Burghfield. The current plant at
this location is over 50-years-old. The plan, developed by
the Ministry of Defense, is known as Project Mensa. Like previous
facilities, the new one will fall under the jurisdiction of
the Health and Safety Executive's Nuclear Installations Inspectorate,
the Hazardous Installations Directorate, and the Ministry
of Defense. Project Mensa may break ground by next year, and
be commissioned by 2014-2015. The proposal for building a
new facility at the site has sparked controversy,
including questions over whether the area may be unsuitable
because of potential flooding.
Update on sale of stake in AWE
The AWE was the subject of intense controversy in December,
when the government sold
one-third of its stake in the organization to Jacobs, a U.S.-based
engineering company. The AWE, founded after World War II,
is responsible for the construction and maintenance of the
United Kingdom's nuclear warheads. The government's sale of
its stake puts two-thirds
of the AWE in the control of American companies. The U.S.-based
defense firm Lockheed Martin and the British firm Serco also
each own a one-third share of the organization. This move,
which the government failed to disclose to Parliament, drew
heavy criticism
from opposition politicians concerned that it further highlights
the dependence of Britain's deterrent upon the United States.
Gerald Howarth, the Conservative Party's shadow defense minister,
said,
"It is consistent with the government's unwillingness
to share matters nuclear with Parliament." Nick Harvey,
the Liberal Democrat's defense spokesman, argued that such
technology sharing was prohibited by the nonproliferation
treaty.
Further Reading
India and Pakistan
Pakistani Scientist Khan released from house arrest
After five years under house arrest in his home in Pakistan,
a national court ordered the release
of A.Q. Khan on February 6. (Pakistan-based DAWN recently
reported
that the decision could be repealed.) Khan had been confined
despite being pardoned by the Pakistani government in 2004
for allegedly selling nuclear technology to North Korea, Iran,
and Libya, a crime to which he initially confessed but later
recanted. The move to release Khan suggests the Pakistani
government has decided to prioritise its popularity at home
over its relationship with the United States and any concerns
over its reputation for proliferation. Both U.S. and U.N.
weapons inspectors have repeatedly attempted to question Khan
about his proliferation activities, but have been blocked
by Islamabad, a situation which is likely to continue. But
these inspectors warn that Khan risks arrest if he travels
abroad, which he is highly unlikely to do.
On a related note, the United States had announced
in January that it will be imposing sanctions on 13 people
and three companies accused of involvement in the nuclear
proliferation network of the Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan.
The list of thirteen suspects, who have long been under investigation
by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna,
include businessmen and engineers from Britain, Germany, Switzerland,
Sri Lanka, Turkey, and the Middle East. The sanctions include
the freezing of the suspects' U.S.-based assets as well as
a prohibition on Americans from engaging in business with
them. Urs
Tinner, a Swiss engineer investigated for his suspected
involvement with the Khan network, has been released after
four years in detention.
Nuclear facility information exchange
On January 1st, India and Pakistan exchanged
their list of nuclear facilities, a practice they have conducted
on every New Year's Day since 1992. The practice stems from
their agreement
not to attack each other's nuclear installations.
A large delegation of U.S. business executives met
with Indian officials in New Delhi to thoroughly examine the
text of the 123 Agreement, which was passed last year. This
agreement allows for India to participate in global civilian
nuclear trade and use U.S. nuclear technology. But its implementation
has been hampered by a sea of bureaucratic issues, the most
contentious being negotiating India's right to reprocess spent
fuel for its three-stage breeder reactors.
Indian missile test
On January 20, India tested
its BraMos supersonic cruise missile, which is capable of
carrying nuclear warheads. India's Defense Minister, A.K.
Antony, said that the tests were pre-planned and not directed
toward any nation. While India and Pakistan customarily warn
each other prior to conducting missile tests, it was not made
clear whether Islamabad knew about the exercises. The test
was conducted in Rajasthan, a province that borders Pakistan.
After initially declaring the tests a success, the Indian
Defense Ministry acknowledged on January 21 that the BrahMos
failed
to hit its intended target.
Further Reading
Iran
On February 2 Iran successfully launched
a domestically-built satellite into orbit. INRA described
the launch as part of a "data processing project,"
and proclaimed it to be "the first practical step towards
acquiring national space technology." This same technology
can also be used for launching weapons. Expressing "great
concern" about the launch, U.S. State Department spokesman
Robert Wood called
on the international community, particularly Russia and China,
to put pressure on Iran, citing common interests. Nevertheless,
although the satellite reached orbit, it was a great deal
smaller than any possible military payload would be.
The Wall Street Journal reported
on January 16 that it observed a number of documents from
the Iranian company ABAN Commercial & Industrial Ltd. These
records indicate that this company tried to acquire 30,000
kilograms of tungsten copper from a company in Beijing through
an intermediary. This type of copper can be used in the development
of missile guidance systems. The United Arab Emirates also
recently intercepted a shipment of titanium sheets from China
headed to Iran. Titanium may be used to develop long-range
missiles. Although these materials have civilian uses, Iran
is still prohibited by international sanctions from acquiring
them. Law enforcement officials in New York are also investigating
whether international banks have been laundering money for
the Islamic Republic.
American intelligence officials contend that Iran has somewhere
between 4,000 and 5,000 spinning centrifuges, (enough to produce
a weapon's worth of uranium roughly every eight months) which
is up from the IAEA's estimate last November of 3,800. But
Iran appears to be having problems with the natural resources
needed for its nuclear program. The London Times reports
that the Islamic Republic is running low on unrefined uranium.
In a press conference on January 12, Iranian Foreign Ministry
spokesman Hassan Qashavi explained
that the Islamic Republic is "adamant to pursue its nuclear
rights," although it denies trying to produce a nuclear
weapon. According to David Albright, the head of the Institute
for Science and International Security, Iran's yellowcake
may also run out by the end of 2009. Iran's supply of yellowcake
is reportedly much too small to fuel a civilian nuclear program,
which has further aroused international suspicions of its
claim that this program is strictly for peaceful purposes.
On several occasions recently, Obama has reaffirmed
his commitment to meeting with Iranian officials without preconditions.
But he has also accused Iran of 'pursuing a nuclear weapon
that could trigger an arms race." Tehran's response to
Obama's more moderate posture has been cautious, but open.
In an interview
on January 28, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad indicated
that "if there are real changes [from Washington], we
will welcome it." On February 6 Iranian parliamentary
speaker Ali Larijani warned
Washington that the relationship would be repaired only if
Washington "accepts its mistakes and changes its policies,"
placing the blame for hostilities squarely on the American
side.
A report released
by David Sanger in the January 10th edition of The New
York Times reveals information about President Bush's
strategy toward Iran. According to interviews Sanger conducted
with anonymous intelligence officials, starting in early 2008
Bush embraced a covert strategy to undermine the infrastructure
surrounding Iran's nuclear program. Reportedly, Bush embraced
this strategy due to frustration with the sanctions approach
and the recognition that an overt attack would destabilize
the region. Sanger also indicated that Bush rejected an air
strike proposal on Iran's nuclear facility at Natanz.
Further Reading
- The Gulf states must press the nuclear issue before
it's too late
Emile El-Hokayem, The National (newspaper - UAE),
via the Henry L. Stimson
Center Website, December 17, 2008
http://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?ID=731
North Korea
Between January 15 and 19, South Korean envoy Hwang Joon-kook
led a group of nuclear experts on a visit to North Korea to
examine
unused nuclear fuel rods at the communist state's main reprocessing
facility. The North agreed to this type of inspection in December
at the latest round of the Six-Party negotiations between
the United States, Russia, China, Japan, South Korea, and
North Korea. The negotiations failed,
however, to produce an agreement on procedures for the verification
of the dismantlement of North Korean nuclear facilities. The
inspections were conducted amid recent tensions between the
North and South as Pyongyang declared
an "all-out confrontational posture" against South
Korea on January 17, prompting Seoul to heighten its vigilance
along its northern border. But the South Korean delegation
reported that North Korea was continuing dismantlement at
the Yongbyong nuclear complex, even though Pyongyang had recently
threatened to continue its nuclear weapons program.
North Korean leader Kim-Jong
Il met with Wang Jiarui, a senior Chinese Communist official,
in Pyongyang on January 23. This was Kim's first known meeting
with a foreign emissary since he reportedly suffered a stroke
in August. South Korean analysts speculate that with this
move Kim is signaling to the world, particularly to the new
U.S. administration, that he is still in control of his country
and able to make decisions about its nuclear weapons program.
On February 3, a South Korean intelligence official told
the Associated Press that the North may be preparing to test
its Taepodong-2 missile, which is intended to have a range
of more than 4,000 miles and thus could conceivably hit the
western coast of the United States. According to a Japanese
government source, it may be at least a month before the missile
test.
Further Reading
Missile Defense
According to a January 28th article
in The New York Times, Russia has suspended (but not
cancelled) its plans to deploy its Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad,
leading to speculation that the Kremlin may be reaching out
to the Obama Administration. Officials in Moscow refused to
confirm or comment on the report, which came from an unidentified
Russian defense official. But at a Russian-NATO conference
in Munich on February 6, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei
Ivanov indicated
that Moscow is far from dead set on the Kaliningrad deployment.
"[Russian] President [Dmitri] Medvedev from the very
start said very clearly and unequivocally that if there are
no interceptors in Poland and the Czech Republic [referring
to the proposed U.S. ground-based midcourse defense system]
as was planned by the [Bush] Administration, clearly, there
will be no Iskanders in Kaliningrad," he explained.
Michelle Flournoy, Obama's undersecretary for policy at the
Pentagon, informed
the Senate Armed Services Committee that plans for missile
deployment in Poland and the Czech Republic should be evaluated
during the quadrennial defense review (QDR). She further said
that this evaluation would take U.S.-Russian relations into
consideration. Flournoy disclosed these intentions during
her Senate confirmation hearing on January 15. The QDR is
set to take place later this year.
On December 5, the U.S. Air Force conducted
a test of its anti-missile defense shield at Vandenberg Air
Force Base in California. It intercepted a dummy Intercontinental
Ballistic Missile (ICBM) launched from Kodiak, Alaska. However,
test decoys failed to deploy from the ICBM, continuing to
raise questions
about whether the system will be capable of coping with countermeasures.
Boeing
received a $397.9 million contract from the Missile Defense
Agency (MDA) in December to continue development of the GMD
program.
In early January, the Financial Times reported that
India and the United States had entered into discussions
about long-range missile defense systems for India. The U.S.
Defense Department claimed
that talks took place only on "a very rudimentary level."
Serious plans for a missile defense deal could anger Pakistan.
Recent India-U.S. military relations have intensified
and a controversial civilian nuclear cooperation agreement
had been approved in the latter half of 2008.
Further Reading
Other Publications
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