 Getting to Zero Update
4 December 2008
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IN THIS ISSUE:
Commitments to Disarmament and Arms Control
U.S. and Russian negotiators met in Geneva on November 21
to discuss a replacement agreement for the 1991 Strategic
Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which expires at the end of
2009. A follow-up agreement would seek to retain the verification
procedures and look to further reduce the strategic nuclear
weapon stockpiles possessed by both countries. The talks concluded
without substantial agreement, but were said to lay the groundwork
for the resumption of negotiations after the Obama Administration
takes office. The US Representative gave a special statement
outlining the shared assumption that the meeting met the requirements
of the Treaty and that the parties now until the expiration
of the Treaty on December 5th, 2009 to agree a follow-on.
From November 10 to 14, managers of the International Monitoring
System (IMS)-the group that directly controls a network of
sites designed to remotely detect the signs of a nuclear detonation-met
in Vienna to discuss means of maintaining or improving the
robustness of their program. Forty seven member states contributed
inspectors to the conference, which will work on means of
enhancing the 300-plus global monitoring stations that are
used for verifying the enforcement of the Comprehensive Test
Ban Treaty (CTBT).
Further Reading
Five steps to a nuclear-free world, Ban Ki-moon, Guardian.co.uk,
November 23, 2008
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/nov/23/
nuclear-disarmament-united-nations/print
No nukes, Drake Bennett, Boston Globe, November
23, 2008
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/
ideas/articles/2008/11/23/no_nukes/
Monitoring Station Operators From All Over the World Gather
in Vienna, CTBTO Preparatory Commission, November 14,
2008
http://www.ctbto.org/press-centre/highlights/2008/
monitoring-station-operators-from-all-over-the-world-gather-in-vienna/
14-november-2008-page-1/?Fsize=a
Bush administration seeks breakthrough with Moscow,
Desmond Butler, USA Today, November 6, 2008
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/
2008-11-06-1610694587_x.htm
Canada Asks First Committee to Imagine 'Utopian' Picture
of Disarmament Machinery; Urges Alternative Solutions Where
Progress in Traditional Machinery has Stagnated, U.N.
General Assembly, October 29, 2008
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs//2008/gadis3376.doc.htm
Nuclear disarmament must shift from aspiration to reality,
Ban Says, U.N. News Centre, October 24, 2008
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?
NewsID=28703&Cr=nuclear&Cr1=
Country Reports
United States
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates spoke
on "Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence in the 21st Century" at
the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC at
the end of October. He lauded the possibility of deeper reductions
in the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia through
negotiating a follow-up agreement to START and for the United
States to ratify the CTBT on the condition that verification
measures meet the expectations of U.S. leaders. Secretary
Gates also issued his support for the Reliable Replacement
Warhead program.
In mid-November, U.S. Air Force officials announced
that a recent nuclear inspection the 341st Missile Wing at
Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana discovered faults in a
unit that oversees approximately 150 ICBMs, including failure
to provide sufficient protection of the nuclear weapon
storage area.
Barack Obama has chosen his senior foreign and security policy
team
to include Hilary Clinton as Secretary of State, to retain
Bob Gates as Defense Secretary, and Gen Jim Jones as National
Security Adviser. His transition website (current as of December
1st) posted brief summaries of his position on foreign
policy issues, including nuclear weapons. Subheadings
have included "Secure Loose Nuclear Weapons from Terrorists,"
"Strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty," and "Move
Toward a Nuclear Free World."
Further Reading
Gen. Kevin Chilton: Sounding the Nuclear Alarm, Melanie
Kirkpatrick, Wall Street Journal, November 19, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122731227702749413.html
Missile tour full of irony, Mark Johnson, The News
& Observer, November 16, 2008
http://www.newsobserver.com/105/story/1296591.html
Danger Room Debrief: Lead by Example on Nukes, Mr. President-Elect,
Noah Schatman with Joseph Cirincione, Wired, November 14,
2008
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/11/wars-in-iraq-an.html
Orienting the 2009 Nuclear Posture Review: A Roadmap,
Andrew Grotto and Joe Cirincione, Report from the Center for
American Progress, November 2008
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/11/
pdf/nuclear_posture.pdf
Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: Why the United States Should
Lead, George Perkovich, Foreign Policy for the Next President,
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 2008
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/
abolishing%5Fnuclear%5Fweapons%2Epdf
Russia
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has talked of plans to
"neutralize"
the proposed Eastern European-based U.S. missile shield. He
has announced Russian intentions to install short range ballistic
missiles in Russia's Baltic enclave. The Iskander missiles
would be stationed in Kaliningrad in response to the decision
to station interceptor missiles and the radar station in Poland
and the Czech Republic, respectively. President Medvedev stated
that these plans would not be carried out if President Obama
were to delay or cancel the missile defense plans. Following
talks with Moscow, the Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko,
has also pledged
his support for the placement of advanced Russian Iskander
missiles in his country, though this may be unlikely.
Russian plans to expand its tactical nuclear missile force
in western Russia have been strongly criticized by prominent
European and American officials. The President of the European
Commission, José Manuel Barroso, described the Kremlin's behavior
as an exercise in "cold war rhetoric." The U.S. Defense Secretary,
Robert Gates, also described
President Medvedev's actions as "misguided." The Russian President's
speech outlining these plans, delivered within hours of Senator
Obama's election, has been interpreted as an effort to intimidate
Mr. Obama into withdrawing plans for a European missile defense
system. The Russian Ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov,
confirmed
that Moscow's threats were in fact an attempt to make Obama
reconsider the project. Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov,
also stated
that there are unlikely to be any final decisions made until
after Obama's inauguration. Although it is unclear whether
the President-elect and President Medvedev discussed
missile defense during a recent telephone conversation, the
two leaders did express an intention to create a "constructive"
and "positive" relationship and agreed that they should arrange
to meet soon after Obama takes office.
Russia has also successfully tested its next generation Bulava
intercontinental submarine-launched ballistic missile last
week, which it intends to enter into full-scale production
in 2009. The Russian Strategic Missile Force
Chief, Col.-Gen Nikolai, has also stated that the country's
missile arsenal will be upgraded in order to counter
any future U.S. missile defense installations. The measures
will include the deployment of RS-24 intercontinental missiles.
Further Reading
NATO says still backs plan for U.S. missile shield,
David Brunnstrom, Reuters, November 17, 2008
http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed2/idUSLH643022
Sarkozy backs Russian calls for pan-European security
pact, Ian Traynor and Luke Harding, The Guardian,
November 15, 2008
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/15/
nicolas-sarkozy-russia-european-security
Belarus President Seeks to Deploy Russia Missiles,
Alan Cullison, Wall Street Journal World, November
14, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB122662176384426603.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
U.S., Russian diplomats seek to ease tensions, Matthew
Lee, Newsweek, November 9, 2008
http://www.newsweek.com/id/168194
President Dmitri Medvedev orders missiles deployed in
Europe as world hails Obama, Tony Halpin, TimesOnline,
November 6, 2008
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/
europe/article5090077.ece
Russian missiles near Poland to 'offset' U.S. shield -
NATO envoy, Novosti, November 5, 2008
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20081105/118146144.html
North Korea
Officials from South Korea, China and the US met to advance
progress in the Six Party Talks. President George Bush made
a special appeal
to President Hu Jintao during the meeting of the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC) on November 21 to help with
facilitating discussions on verifying North Korea's nuclear
dismantlement. Six Party Talks are scheduled
to resume in China on December 8, during which U.S. Secretary
of State Condoleeza Rice hopes that the protocol
for verifying disarmament will be signed.
According to South Korea's defense minister, Lee Sang-hee,
North Korea is constructing a new missile
base near its border with China, capable
of launching larger missiles than those positioned at the
older Taepodong facility.
Further Reading
China, DPRK meet over six-party nuclear talks, Xinhua.net,
November 14, 2008
http://en.ce.cn/National/Politics/
200811/14/t20081114_17378231.shtml
The North Korean Conundrum: Change you can Believe in
or Policy Status Quo? John Feffer, Tomdispatch.com, November
13, 2008
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175002/
john_feffer_can_washington_make_sense_of_north_korea_
North Korea 'building new missile base,' Haroon Siddique,
Guardian.co.uk, November 4, 2008
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/04/northkorea-missiles
Rice says verification key for North Korea nuclear disarmament,
Agence France Presse, November 26, 2008
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081127/wl_afp/
usnkoreanucleardisarmament_081127021927
Syria
Western and American diplomats have expressed their concern
over the International Atomic Energy Agency's offer to help
Syria
in assessing its ability to construct a civilian nuclear power
plant. The proposition came from the Agency at a time when
the country is being investigated for attempting to build
a reactor capable of producing fissile material for nuclear
weapons, subsequently destroyed in an Israeli
military operation. IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei
reiterated
on November 25 that an IAEA-supported reactor in Syria would
not create any additional danger of nuclear weapons proliferation,
if Syria agreed to "maximum
transparency". Although a senior Syrian official last
week declared that further IAEA visits were unthinkable due
to national security implications, ElBaradei has since said
that steps can be taken to ensure the protection of Syria's
interests.
Further Reading
IAEA Report to the Board of Governors: Implementation
of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Syrian Arab Republic,
available via the Institute for Science and International
Security, November 19, 2008
http://www.isis-online.org/publications/syria/
IAEA_Report_Syria_19Nov2008.pdf
In US defeat, UN agency approves Syria nuclear aid,
George Jahn, Associated Press Writer, November 26, 2008
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081126/
ap_on_bi_ge/eu_nuclear_syria_11
ElBaradei prods Syria to open up to nuclear probe,
Mark Heinrich, Reuters, November 27, 2008
http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKTRE4AQ5Q720081127
Iran
The International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA)
Director General, Mohamed ElBaradei, issued the latest report
on Iran's nuclear program on November 19. The Agency said
that no progress had been made in talks with Iran to establish
further details of their program. Iran is set to add an additional
3,000 centrifuges
to expand its uranium enrichment capability by early 2009,
and according to the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization,
Gholamreza Aghazadeh, is currently operating 5000 centrifuges.
Representatives from the P5+1 met in Paris earlier in November
to consider future
action on Iran, but continued to disagree on whether to levy
additional sanctions. In a speech
in Abu Dhabi on November 24, UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband
called the "prospect of a nuclear armed Iran" one of the greatest
challenges facing international security, but emphasized that
UK policy toward Iran is not an attempt at "regime
change." The Iranian Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki,
afterwards warned
Britain not to associate with President Bush's "failed" policy
towards Iran.
On November 12, the Iranian military announced
a successful test of what it describes a new generation of
solid-fuel surface-to-surface missile. With a range
of 1,900 km (approximately 1,200 miles), the new missile's
range is slightly shorter than Iran's Shahab-3 missile, but
still capable of reaching Israel and U.S. installations in
the Persian Gulf. Iran continued to flex its missile capabilities
by launching a Kavosh 2 rocket on November 26.
Iran has also pitched the idea of jointly
pursuing civilian nuclear power sources with neighboring Arab
countries. The proposition, voiced by the head of the Atomic
Energy Organization of Iran, has so far provoked little response.
Further Reading
IAEA Report on Iran: Enriched Uranium Output Steady, Centrifuge
Numbers Expected to Increase Dramatically; Arak Reactor Verification
Blocked, David Albright, Jacqueline Shire, and Paul Brannan,
ISIS Issue Brief, November 19, 2008
http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/
ISIS_analysis_Nov-IAEA-Report.pdf
Iran test-fires new missile, Israel within reach,
Zahra Hosseinian, Reuters, November 12, 2008
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081112/ts_nm/
us_iran_missiles_test_5
Iran warns U.S. not to violate Iranian airspace, Edmund
Blair, Iran Focus, November 5, 2008
http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/
iran-warns-u.s.-not-to-violate-iranian-airspace-16615.html
Iran signals nuclear work expansion, rules out halt,
Parisa Hafezi and Fredrik Dahl, Reuters, November 26,
2008
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081126/wl_nm/
us_iran_nuclear_5 Dahl
Iran proposes nuclear plants, Associated Press, November
30, 2008
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081127/wl_afp/
usnkoreanucleardisarmament_081127021927
Missile Defense
A spokesman for Barack Obama confirmed that the U.S. President-elect
recently held talks with the Polish President, Lech Kacyzynski,
in relation to a planned U.S. missile interceptor base in
the country. Mr. Obama made no
promise that the installation would ever be constructed,
emphasizing that the system for Eastern Europe should be proven
before it is deployed. The system is to include ten missile
interceptors in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic.
France has expressed its opposition to the proposed U.S.
missile shield for Eastern Europe and has backed
President Medvedev's plans for a new pan-European Security
Pact at the conclusion of a Russia-EU summit in the South
of France last week. President Sarkozy, the current chair
of the EU, described missile defense as a setback for European
security. However, elsewhere in Europe, Czech and Polish ministers
met in order to reaffirm their support for the missile project.
NATO
has responded to French criticisms by pledging its commitment
to the project.
Further Reading
Missile Defense Agency completes change of responsibility
ceremony, MDA News Release, November 21, 2008
http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/pdf/08news0088.pdf
Stakes Rising on Prez-elect's First Test, Peter Brookes,
The Heritage Foundation, November 19, 2008
http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed111908a.cfm
U.S. accuses Russia of Cold War intimidation over missile
threats, Bruno Waterfield, Telegraph.co.uk, November 14,
2008
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/
northamerica/usa/barackobama/3453783/
US-accuses-Russia-of-Cold-War-intimidation-over-missile-threats.html
Will Obama Alter Bush Administration's Stance on Missile
Defense? Fox News, November 14, 2008
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,452068,00.html
Inside the Ring: Missile Defense Working, Bill Gertz,
Washington Times, November 13, 2008
http://washingtontimes.com/news/2008/nov/13/
inside-the-ring-78143095/
Obama adviser: No commitment on defense shield, CNN.com,
November 8, 2008
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/11/08/
obama.us.poland.missile.shield/
Congress Chides U.S. Missile Defense Management, Elaine
M. Grossman, Global Security Newswire, November 3,
2008
http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/ts_20081103_2103.php
Pentagon Study Lambasts Missile Defense Agency, Victoria
Samson, October 21, 2008
http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?
DocumentID=4393&StartRow=1&ListRows=10&appendURL=&Orderby=
D.DateLastUpdated&ProgramID=6&from_page=index.cfm
Russia to Start Producing New Bulava Ballistic Missiles
in 2009, Sebastian Alison, Bloomberg.com, 1December
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=20601095&sid=aiO19AXblGL8
Report: Russia to upgrade missile, Vladimir Isachenkov,
Associated Press Writer, 1 December, 2008
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081201/
ap_on_re_eu/eu_russia_missiles_3
Russia to deploy new missile from 2009, Military
Staff writers, Moscow Staff Writers, Moscow (AFP), 28 November,
2008
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/
Russia_to_deploy_new_missile_from_2009_military_999.html
Other Publications
Understanding and Preventing Nuclear Terrorism, Travis
Sharp and Erica Poff, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation,
November 14, 2008
http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/policy/nonproliferation/
articles/111408_understanding_preventing_nuclear_terrorism/
Unprecedented Projected Nuclear Growth in the Middle East:
Now Is the Time to Create Effective Barriers to Proliferation,
David Albright and Andrea Scheel, ISIS Report, November
12, 2008
http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/
Unprecedented_Projected_Nuclear_Growth_
Middle_East_12Nov2008.pdf
A New Paradigm: Shattering Obsolete Thinking on Arms Control
and Nonproliferation, Christopher A. Ford, Arms Control
Association, November 2008
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_11/ford
Strategic Collapse: The Failure of the Bush Nuclear Doctrine,
Joseph Cirincione, Arms Control Association, November
2008
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_11/cirincione
Securing the Bomb 2008, Matthew Bunn, Belfer Center
for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University,
November 2008
http://www.nti.org/e_research/STB08_Executive_Summary.pdf
Nuclear Security in Pakistan after Musharraf, Kenneth
Luongo, Partnership for Global Security, October 29,
2008
http://www.partnershipforglobalsecurity.org/PDFFrameset.asp?
PDF=wmdinsights_pakistan_oct08.pdf
Are New Nuclear Bargains Attainable? Deepti Choubey,
Carnegie Report, October 2008
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?
fa=view&id=22229&prog=zgp&proj=znpp
BASIC and Getting to Zero (GTZ)
Improving
nuclear security in 2009 and beyond: Transatlantic options
for the new Administration. Event sponsored by BASIC and
Women in International Security. Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, Washington, DC, 6 November 2008.
Seizing
the Moment: Breakthrough Measures to Build a New East West
Consensus on Weapons of Mass Destruction and Disarmament,
The event was hosted by the EastWest Institute in cooperation
with BASIC and other NGOs. United Nations, New York, 24 October
2008.
Visit the GTZ BLOG and post
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