 Getting to Zero Update
23 October 2008
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IN THIS ISSUE:
Commitments to Disarmament and Arms Control
Australia
has held its first meeting of a new international nuclear
non-proliferation body. The International Commission on Nuclear
Non-Proliferation and Disarmament aims to ensure the success
of the 2010 Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty (NPT) conference,
promote discussion on the need for disarmament and help to
prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Its members include
former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry and Norway's
former Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland.
Norway, the United States and the Nuclear Threat Initiative
are funding the establishment of the World
Institute for Nuclear Security (WINS) with the aim
of improving security at nuclear sites worldwide. Between
five to ten experts will collect the world's best security
practices for dealing with nuclear facilities and materials
in order to share that information with peers.
Russian and U.S. officials will meet
in Geneva in mid-November to discuss a follow up arrangement
to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which will
expire at the end of 2009.
Further Reading
The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: Effectively Verifiable
David Hafemeister, Arms Control Today, October 2008
www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_10/Hafemeister
Parliamentarians for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament
(PNND) Update 20
October 2008
www.gsinstitute.org/pnnd/updates/20.html
Avoiding a Perfect Storm: Recharting the NPT Review Process
Jean du Preez, Arms Control Today, October 2008
www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_10/duPreez
The fragility of the global nuclear order
Graham Allison and Ernesto Zedillo, The Boston Herald, September
30, 2008
www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/
2008/09/30/the_fragility_of_the_global_nuclear_order/
The 2008 CTBT Ministerial Meeting - A Message of Hope
and Peace
CTBTO, September 26, 2008
www.ctbto.org/index.php?id=1527
Country Reports
United States
The report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Nuclear
Deterrence Skills has become public. Inside Defense
posted the 148-page document
online on October 16. The Task Force made 23 recommendations
within the categories of leadership, organization, strategic
planning, capabilities, and competencies and concluded that
the reduced attention to the nuclear enterprise could harm
U.S. deterrence capabilities, which it says remain crucial
to U.S. national security.
The Departments of Energy and Defense released a joint report
on September 23: National Security and Nuclear Weapons
in the 21st Century. The Departments advocate a continuing
reliance on nuclear deterrence and moving forward with the
Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) program. The report
is available via the Federation of American Scientists' website.
The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) announced
on October 9 that it has approved the final analysis of the
Supplemental Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (SPEIS).
The NNSA press
release summarized several of these recommendations, including
"consolidation of high-security special nuclear material"
... from seven sites down to five, and for "Los Alamos National
Laboratory to provide consolidated plutonium research, development,
and manufacturing capability."
The U.S. Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs,
Richard Boucher, has emphasized what U.S. officials see as
the unique nature of the India-U.S. nuclear agreement. He
also said that nuclear cooperation with Pakistan is out of
the question because of its history with leaking
nuclear weapons information. In response, Pakistan has announced
that China will strengthen its relations with Islamabad by
helping its counterparts to build two more nuclear
power plants.
Further Reading
B61 Mod 12 LEP
Jeffrey Lewis, Arms Control Wonk, October 13, 2008
www.armscontrolwonk.com/2060/b61-mod-12-lep
Next U.S. Administration should review U.S. nonproliferation
policy
The Stanley Foundation, October 13, 2008
www.stanleyfoundation.org/press.cfm?ID=28
Nuclear Watch New Mexico Comments on Plutonium Pit Production
at Los Alamos National Lab
Alliance for Nuclear Accountability, October 10, 2008
www.ananuclear.org/Issues/GlobalNuclearEnergyPartnership/
Library/tabid/56/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/129/Default.aspx
Fact-Check This: The Real Test-Ban Story (on Vice Presidential
candidate debate)
Martin Fleck, Campaign for a Nuclear Weapons Free World Blog,
October 3, 2008
blog.nuclearweaponsfree.org/index.cfm/2008/10/3/
Factcheck-THIS-the-real-test-ban-story
Nuclear Policy Paper embraces Clinton Era "Lead and Hedge"
Strategy
Hans Kristensen, FAS Strategic Security Blog, September 26,
2008
www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/09/policypaper.php
2008 Presidential Q&A: Democratic Nominee Barack Obama
Arms Control Today, September 24, 2008
www.armscontrol.org/system/files/20080924_
ACT_PresidentialQA_Obama_Sept08.pdf
United Kingdom
Following a series of local by-elections, questions regarding
the security implications of Scotland's bid for independence
are more prominent than ever. As Britain's nuclear deterrent
is not supported by either the Scottish people or the Scottish
Parliament, the Scottish National Party has the intention
of declaring itself a non-nuclear weapon state under the NPT
and removing the Trident fleet and nuclear warheads from Scottish
soil should the country become independent. Such a move would
have significant logistical and financial
implications for England, Wales and Northern Ireland (EWNI).
However, the U.K. Defense Secretary John
Hutton has confirmed his commitment to keeping nuclear
weapons in Scotland, underlining that defense is not a devolved
matter.
India
On October 1, the U.S. Congress passed
the necessary legislation to open up nuclear trade with India.
The deal will enable the United States to supply nuclear fuel,
technology and reactors to India, a country which has never
signed the NPT and has engaged in atomic tests as recently
as 1998. Despite improving relations and business
prospects, this landmark agreement has been heavily criticized
on a number of fronts, most notably for its potential to facilitate
the spread of nuclear weapons materials and technology, and
its potential to undermine
the NPT. New Delhi sees this as a "vindication"
for India.
The deal may also be seen in the context of U.S. efforts
to build a close relationship with India to balance rising
Chinese influence. The substantial pressure put on the Nuclear
Suppliers Group (NSG) by the U.S. government in order to verify
this agreement suggests that much is at stake, particularly
when considering prior U.S. policy toward India during the
last three decades.
The agreement has strengthened India's diplomatic ties and
expanded its business prospects. Contracts are already nearing
completion on undertakings
with France's Areva group, Russia's Rosatom State Nuclear
Energy Corp and the American company General Electric.
India has also asked the U.N. General Assembly to help establish
a consensus
on moving toward non-discriminatory nuclear disarmament. India
confirmed its commitment by re-introducing three U.N. resolutions
which members of the Committee and then the General Assembly
will discuss.
Further Reading
Bush signs U.S.-India nuclear pact into law
Tabassum Zakaria and Andy Sullivan, Reuters, October
8, 2008
uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20081008/
tpl-uk-nuclear-india-usa-bush-81f3b62_1.html
The U.S.-India Nuclear Deal
Esther Pan and Jayshree Bajoria, Council on Foreign Relations,
October 2, 2008
www.cfr.org/publication/9663/
India open for U.S. $80 billion in nuclear business
The Star Online, September 26, 2008
biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/9/26/
business/20080926122925&sec=business
Iran
Condoleezza Rice has reaffirmed that the 'six
powers' leading the opposition against Iran's nuclear
ambitions (Britain, China, North and South Korea, France,
Germany and the United States) will persist
in adopting a tough stance against Tehran. This commitment
follows the recent Security Council resolution, which renewed
demands for Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program,
but contained no additional sanctions. Tehran
insists that its nuclear goals are peaceful and constructive.
Early in October, Iran countered
suggestions that it might
trade its own program of uranium enrichment for explicit guarantees
of a supply of nuclear fuel. Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, Iran's
delegate to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),
explained Iran's position, saying, "We are going to continue
as long as there is no legally binding… instrument for assurance
of supply." Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki stated
Iran seeks to be self-sufficient in fuel production, and that
the assurances of other world powers are insufficiently strong
to guarantee the vitality of Iran's nuclear program, given
Iran's previous experience with them. Specifically, he noted
the failure of the United States to honor its nuclear contracts
with Iran made prior to the 1979 Islamic revolution. Iran
has cited the U.S.-India nuclear deal as part of a double
standard which has helped to legitimize the nuclear interests
of some, while demonizing Iran's own goals.
On October 14, Iran announced
its willingness to move forward with negotiations on its nuclear
programs if Western interlocutors will return to the table.
Iran's parliamentary speaker, Ali Larijani announced his country's
willingness to negotiate, provided the "P5+1" states did not
demand the same set of "impossible to achieve" conditions.
Decrying the United Nations' incentive-threat tactics as outdated,
Larijani claimed Iran had never left the negotiating table.
Several hundred Russian-trained engineers are set to begin
working again at the Bushehr nuclear plant, expected to be
fully operational sometime before March 2009.
Further Reading
NATO doubts the world will stop Iran getting bomb
Crispian Balmer, Reuters UK, October 6, 2008
uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKTRE4952T820081006
Iran: Is Productive Engagement Possible?
Karim Sadjadpour, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Policy Brief No. 65, October 2008
carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?
fa=view&id=22281&prog=zgp&proj=zme
Iran lowers level of participation in IAEA meeting
Associated Press, September 28, 2008
news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080929/ap_on_re_mi_ea/
ml_iran_nuclear;_ylt=AmtRmiIR.BScTiDlqtIeHpYLewgF
North Korea
The United States withdrew
North Korea from its terrorism blacklist on October 11, following
an agreement on inspections and verification. North Korea
will now be freed from certain sanctions and eligible for
World Bank aid and assistance from other multilateral bodies,
and will receive oil aid for its energy-strapped economy.
North Korea responded to the United States' action by announcing
its recommitment
to dismantling its nuclear facilities. A foreign ministry
statement welcomed "the U.S.'s decision to honor its commitment
to remove us from the list of state sponsors of terrorism."
U.S. and IAEA
monitors will be allowed
access to Yongbyon and
other nuclear facilities, re-install security features,
and investigate the supply of nuclear material and technology
to other countries. Monitors
have re-sealed nuclear equipment and reactivated cameras.
International reactions were
mixed. South Korea, keen to establish a normalized relationship
with North Korea, welcomed the news. Japan, which considers
itself a probable target for North Korea and which has an
outstanding dispute
over the abduction of its citizens, proved more hostile.
U.S. officials reported on October 17 that North Korea had
increased its efforts to decommission a nuclear reactor which
it had previously threatened to reactivate. U.S. diplomat
Christopher
Hill stated that the disablement of North Korea's nuclear
facilities should be completed soon, although 'logistical
and scheduling' difficulties have prevented further disarmament
talks from taking place this month
Further Reading
North Korea to resume disablement after nuclear deal
Jon Herskovitz, Reuters, October 12, 2008
www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE49B13F20081012
Will Ill Kim Jong-Il Derail Disarmament?
Leonor Tomero and Adam Ptacin, Center for Arms Control and
Non-Proliferation, October 6, 2008
www.armscontrolcenter.org/policy/northkorea/articles/
061008_ill_jong-il_derail_disarmament/
Syria
Early in October, Syria withdrew
its bid for a seat on the board of the IAEA, after it became
apparent that there would likely be no consensus on the nomination.
Syria had been competing
with U.S.-allied Afghanistan for the seat, guaranteed to a
Middle East and South Asian (MESA) nation, after Pakistan's
term on the board expired earlier this year. According
to the current chair of the MESA section within the IAEA (the
Indian delegate), a compromise was reached on the matter after
unspecified negotiations took place.
Syria's bid ran into intense
opposition from the United States, which has asserted
that Syria attempted to build a secret nuclear facility at
Al-Kibar until it was destroyed in an Israeli strike in late
2007 and was under investigation by the IAEA for its covert
nuclear activities. Syria has denied accusations, but has
also refused
to open up three military sites to investigation by the IAEA
during the inquiry.
Further Reading
Syria drops bid for IAEA governors' seat
Reuters, October 3, 2008
www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE4924PH20081003
Missile Defense
U.S. plans for missile defense in Europe may have been dealt
a blow following regional elections in the Czech
Republic on October 18. The leftist Social Democrats have
won all 13 regions contested in the country with a campaign
which heavily criticized the U.S. missile defense deal. Problems
are set to continue for the project as the Social Democrats
are likely to regain a majority in the Senate
following a runoff vote later this week. Should this be the
case, it would significantly limit the chances of the U.S.
missile defense bill being approved by the Czech Senate.
Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported that Russian
officials would withdraw their objections to the U.S. anti-missile
radar in the Czech Republic if Russian observers were permanently
allowed to be stationed at the outpost. The Russian-U.S. working
group for anti-missile defense issues might
meet by the end of October.
On October 14, U.S. President Bush signed the National Defense
Authorization Act, which included a series of restrictions
and conditions on deploying the proposed missile defense sites
in Europe. The Act also orders a study on space-based missile
defense. An unnamed defense official told
the Washington Times that spaced-based missile defense
is necessary for worldwide coverage of U.S. and allied interests.
Skeptics have warned that space-based missile defense would
be too technologically difficult and expensive.
The Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), a U.S. government-funded
research organization, has recommended
that the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) focus its resources
on improving the quality of missile interceptors through research
and development and leave their active deployment to the armed
forces.
Further Reading
New Pentagon Report Slams Missile Defense Agency
Joe Cirincione and Victoria Samson, The Huffington Post,
October 20, 2008
www.huffingtonpost.com/joe-cirincione/
new-pentagon-report-slams_b_136388.html
Insider's Projects Drained Missile Defense Millions
Eric Lipton, The New York Times, October 11, 2008
www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/washington/12missile.html
Missile Defense in Poland a Frivolous Move
Victoria Samson, Center for Defense Information, October 8,
2008
www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?
DocumentID=4387&from_page=../index.cfm
Other Publications
With North Korea, Iran talks faltering, Bush is poised
to leave behind two nuclear challenges
Thomas Omestad, U.S. News & World Report, October 16,
2008
www.usnews.com/articles/news/2008/10/02/
with-north-korea-iran-talks-faltering-bush-is-poised
-to-leave-behind-two-nuclear-challenges.html
Nuclear Proliferation: Avoiding a Pandemic
Barry Blechman, Stimson Center Analysis and Commentary, September
29, 2008
www.stimson.org/newpubs.cfm?PT=0&SB=D&P=0
BASIC and Getting to Zero (GTZ)
Events
Seizing the Moment:
Breakthrough Measures to Build a New East West Consensus on
Weapons of Mass Destruction and Disarmament
The East-West Institute, in cooperation with BASIC, CNS,
and NGOCDPS, the Global Security Institute and other organizations,
will host a conference that will include U.N. Secretary-General
Ban Ki-moon, Henry Kissinger, Hans Blix and other international
experts on October 24 at the United Nations in New York. We
hope to broadcast the morning proceedings on the United Nations
webcast system and will podcast the recordings after the event.
For more information, visit the following page:
www.ewi.info/announcements/events/index.cfm?
title=Events&view=detail&nid=328&aid=6158
Improving Nuclear Security in 2009 and Beyond: Transatlantic
Options for the New Administration
BASIC and Women in International Security (WIIS) will hold
a post-election panel discussion on November 6 at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. More
information will follow soon, and is available from Chris
Lindborg in BASIC's Washington office (clindborg at basicint.org)
Publications
Nuclear Iran: India has made its
choice, Siddharth Ramana, Getting to Zero Paper, No. 10,
October 13, 2008. Also available as a pdf.
NATO Nuclear Sharing: Opportunity
for Change? Jeff King, Chris Lindborg, Philip Maxon,
Getting to Zero Paper, No. 9, October 1, 2008. Also available
as a pdf.
The Nuclear Suppliers Group Waiver,
Siddharth Ramana, BASIC, Getting to Zero Paper, No. 8, September
30, 2008. Also available as a pdf.
GTZ Blog
U.S. India-Nuclear Cooperation
Agreement: What Next? , Philip Maxon, October 8, 2008
Russian resurgence and diplomacy,
Paul Ingram, October 6, 2008
Two missed opportunities for
GTZ during the Presidential debate, Chris Lindborg, September
29, 2008
Visit the GTZ BLOG and post
a comment!
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