Getting to Zero Update
25 September 2008
Please note, BASIC and Crisis Action have a bi-weekly update
devoted solely to diplomatic developments related to Iran's
nuclear program, which may be found at the following web address:
www.basicint.org/update/iran.htm.
Previous editions of BASIC's GTZ Update
are available here.
BASIC has released a new publication on China and submitted
a brief to the U.S. Strategic Posture Review Commission. See
the bottom section of this email for more information.
IN THIS ISSUE:
COMMITMENTS TO DISARMAMENT AND ARMS CONTROL
Iraq ratifies CTBT
On August 19, the Iraqi government ratified
the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The CTBT
has now been signed by 179 countries since its inception at
the U.N. General Assembly meeting in 1996, but cannot take
effect until ratified by the 44 nations which possessed nuclear
technology at the time of the conference. Thirty-five have
to date, but the key hold-outs - the United States, China,
India, Iran, Indonesia, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea -
leave its future uncertain. The CTBT Organization will hold
a meeting
of Foreign Ministers on September 24 in New York to discuss
promoting the Treaty's entry into force.
IAEA's ElBaradei will not seek fourth term
Mohamed ElBaradei, who has been the head of the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) since 1997, will
not seek another term as Director General of the organization.
Favorites to replace him include Yukiya Amano, Japan's IAEA
Ambassador, Abdul Minty, South Africa's long-serving IAEA
Ambassador, Rogelio Pfirter, head of the Organization for
the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), and Ollie Heinonen,
head of the Agency's global non-proliferation inspectorate.
ElBaradei brought the IAEA out of obscurity to become the
foremost international proliferation watchdog group, and he
and the organization were awarded a Nobel Peace Prize in 2005
for efforts to stop nuclear proliferation. He openly questioned
U.S. evidence of nuclear materials in Iraq before the American-led
invasion, and his suspicions have since been largely confirmed.
However, critics have questioned the IAEA's increasingly public
role, and Israel has strongly
criticized ElBaradei's reluctance to "isolate" Iran diplomatically,
or endorse military strikes against Iranian nuclear installations.
COUNTRY REPORTS
UNITED STATES
Tom D'Agostino on "Reducing the Global Nuclear Threat"
Thomas P. D'Agostino, the Administrator of the U.S. National
Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA),
addressed issues including his support for the Reliable Replacement
Warhead (RRW),
and the impact of animosity between the United States and
Russia on disarmament and non-proliferation programs, during
a public meeting on September 17 (more details on BASIC's
blog).
He stressed that the United States needed to disarm "in a
way that doesn't create imbalance," and implied that getting
to zero would be impossible, saying the nuclear deterrent
was "indispensible."
USAF officers disciplined for security breach
In late August, two officers of the missile control corps
were removed
from duty at Minot AFB for removing obsolete technology
used in detecting equipment tampering. The Air Force claimed
there is no risk of accidental launch as a result of this
security breach. Three other members of a ballistic missile
crew at Minot have been "decertified from missile operations"
for falling
asleep while in possession of launch code devices.
Presidential campaigns
The presidential race entered its last two months in turbulent
fashion, with Democratic Senator Barack Obama and Senator
John McCain fighting for the title of 'reform candidate'.
Although the two have traded
accusations with one another on a number of defense issues,
in particular the future of U.S. troop deployments in Iraq,
there appears to be a consensus
in favor of drawing down and moving toward elimination of
the U.S. nuclear arsenal. The first scheduled debate
on foreign policy issues between Obama and McCain will
be held this Friday, September 26 at the University of Mississippi.
U.S.-India deal controversy
After more than three years in the making, the divisive 'U.S.-India
civilian nuclear agreement' cleared its final major hurdle,
as India was given an exemption from international restrictions
on the sale and export of nuclear technology by the Nuclear
Suppliers Group (NSG). The NSG, a 45-nation body of countries
possessing nuclear technology, exists to prevent nuclear proliferation
by controlling the export and sale of nuclear technology.
Reports indicate that the Indian government has already begun
its efforts to purchase
uranium and nuclear technology from a number of sources including
companies in the United States, Russia and France. The deal
has been loudly criticized, in particular by former U.S. President
Jimmy
Carter, who cautioned that it would "put the world at
risk."
The deal had previously survived three separate votes in
the U.S. Congress, via the Hyde
Act in 2006, and the Indian Parliament and IAEA Board
of Governors earlier this year. Proponents have relied upon
two
key arguments:
1) Nuclear power is essential to meeting the energy needs
of India's large and expanding population with (claimed) fewer
environmental impacts and reduced reliance upon dwindling
fossil fuels.
2) India shares the international community's "commonly held
values" of democracy and freedom, and claims an "impeccable
track
record" of nuclear non-proliferation. The U.S. sees strengthened
relations with India as crucial to building an effective non-proliferation
regime, pointing to Indian opposition
to Iran at the IAEA as evidence. Mohamed ElBaradei, head
of the IAEA, claimed
that the deal will "bring India closer as an important partner
in the non-proliferation regime," since India would come under
IAEA safeguards and inspections.
Opponents worry
that imported uranium will free up domestic uranium supplies
for use in the weapons program. They also highlight the risks
of the nuclear option when compared to renewable energy alternatives.
But the strongest criticism has been reserved for the agreement's
failure
to stipulate the consequences should India perform a nuclear
weapon test after receiving imported nuclear materials and
technology, with fears of significant repercussions
for the non-proliferation regime as a whole. Many have warned
that the "exceptional" nature of India's deal will not prevent
other nuclear powers such as Israel
and Pakistan, or aspiring nuclear-weapon states, from seeking
similar waivers.
Furthermore, the IAEA, NSG and the United States have been
accused of undermining
their own authority when dealing
with "rogue" states like Iran and North Korea, from whom they
have denied access to nuclear technology. In particular, the
intense pressure exerted by the Bush Administration on NSG
holdouts, including Australia, Japan and Austria, has led
to skepticism about the NSG's independence from undue American
influence. The United States and other countries have also
been accused
of allowing economic motives to take priority over national
security.
BASIC's in-depth analysis of the U.S.-India civilian nuclear
agreement and its consequences for the nonproliferation regime
can be found here:
AUSTRALIA
Australia responds to India deal
Australia's Foreign Minister Stephen Smith reiterated his
promise not to sell uranium from Australia's massive reserves
to India: "Our policy has also been, and remains, not to supply
other items to non-[NPT] signatories for use in nuclear programs."
Australia was among several
nations to express concerns at the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers
Group (NSG) but allow the measure to pass through, and has
endured
criticism as a result. Smith clarified that Australia
would nevertheless "consider, on a case by case basis, applications
for the export of dual-use items." He emphasized the importance
of strengthening trade relations between the two nations,
and thanked India for supporting the Australian-led International
Commission
on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, remarking that,
"Australia's relationship with India goes far beyond the export
of minerals."
UNITED KINGDOM AND ITALY
United Kingdom to assist Italy with nuclear energy
On September 10, Italy and the United Kingdom committed to
a new nuclear
energy partnership. Italy's Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi,
has suggested that such a deal might lead to a single nuclear
policy throughout Europe. Italy, after a 1987 referendum (in
the wake of the Chernobyl disaster) is the only G-8 member
nation not to have developed nuclear power. Berlusconi indicated
that Italy would begin construction of new nuclear power plants
in the next five years as an alternative to costly energy
imports.
PAKISTAN
Zardari elected president
On September 6, Asif Ali Zardari, the leader of the Pakistan
People's Party (PPP) and widower of assassinated former Prime
Minister Benazir Bhutto, was elected
president of Pakistan. In an address that marked the official
end of Musharraf's 9-year reign, Zardari paid homage to his
wife and promised that during his time in office, the Pakistani
"parliament is sovereign; this president shall be subservient
to the parliament." It is unknown how Zardari's takeover will
affect Pakistan's nuclear ambitions. Fallout from the U.S.-India
nuclear deal remains unclear although some fear that the deal
may goad Pakistan into renewing the nuclear arms race between
the two neighboring nations. Whether Zardari will push for
an equivalent
deal between China and Pakistan, remains to be seen.
On a related note, former U.S. Secretary of the Air Force
and former nuclear lab scientist Thomas Reed, recounts in
a Physics Today article
how China supplied Pakistan with nuclear weapons blueprints
and materials during the 1980s, and eventually tested a Pakistani
nuclear bomb at Lop
Nor. Some of the claims have drawn
suspicion from leading experts, who challenged Reed's
knowledge of the described events, calling the claims "unlikely"
and doubting that the Chinese assisted Pakistan in testing.
RUSSIA
Georgia conflict
The war
of words between the Russian and U.S. governments in the
wake of Russia's invasion of Georgia continues to jeopardize
the future of multilateral non-proliferation efforts involving
the two countries. After what President Bush slammed
as a "dramatic and brutal escalation," Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev defied European and American expectations by recognizing
the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two break-away
regions of Georgia. Medvedev declared that Russia was "not
afraid of another Cold
War."
Rhetoric
aside, American authorities have indicated that relations
with Russia are no longer "business as usual," and that Secretary
of Defense Condoleezza Rice may end cooperative measures under
the U.S.-Russia Strategic Framework. Congressional sources
described the proposed U.S.-Russia civil nuclear agreement
as "dead." With renewal of the START
treaty scheduled for 2009, the SORT
treaty expiring in 2012, and Russia threatening to abandon
the Intermediate-Range
Nuclear Forces Treaty, continued diplomatic failures could
have severe consequences for non-proliferation efforts.
Venezuela combat exercises
In mid-September, several Russian
TU-160 Blackjack bombers, which are capable of deploying nuclear
weapons, staged "training flights" in Venezuela. Russia was
also planning to send warships to Venezuela's coast for naval
exercises. The countries have committed to increased defense
cooperation and will discuss
energy issues during Chavez's upcoming visit to Russia.
Russia has recently been increasing the profile of its relations
with countries that have been antagonistic to U.S. policies,
including Cuba, Iran and Venezuela, in a display of frustration
with U.S. diplomacy over the Georgian crisis and European
missile defense.
NORTH KOREA
Kim Jung Il's health becomes concern for future of negotiations
Rumors about the health of 66 year old North Korean leader
Kim Jung Il began after he failed to appear at a large military
parade marking the nation's 60th anniversary on September
9 in Pyongyang. The following day, after North Korean officials
had dismissed the speculation as "worthless," South Korean
authorities confirmed that Il was "recovering" from a stroke,
but was not thought to be in "serious condition." The incident
has highlighted a potential succession crisis in the country.
With the U.S. presidential elections around the corner, new
leadership in both the United States and North Korea could
spell a change in relations.
News of Il's condition comes at a tenuous time for the "six-party"
talks (North and South Korea, China, Japan, Russia and the
United States). The disagreement between the United States
and North Korea is focused on the process
of "verifying" information that Pyongyang provided, detailing
the dismantling of its nuclear facilities. The North Koreans
claim to have fulfilled their obligations and have demanded
that they be removed from the American list of "state sponsors
of terror," which would relax trade and financial aid restrictions
currently in place, before proceeding further. The North Koreans
announced that they would "halt
nuclear disablement" and could resume their weapons program
shortly. On September 22, the IAEA reported that it had received
requests from North Korea to remove
the seals and surveillance cameras that are intended to help
the IAEA monitor North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear reprocessing
facility. That same day, U.S. representative to negotiations
over the nuclear program, Christopher Hill, reacted to the
development, saying that he was not concerned about North
Korea "immediately" resuming reprocessing. He explained that
it could take months
to restart reprocessing, and that it could take a year to
reactivate the entire nuclear complex.
IRAN
IAEA questions Iran's missile developments
On September 15, the IAEA released
an updated report
on Iran's uranium enrichment program. Iran has continued its
enrichment activities over the summer, but the IAEA has not
detected any diversion of nuclear material. The report criticized
Iran for failing to clear up accusations that it had tried
to weaponize its nuclear program prior to 2003, and indicated
that Iran may have used unspecified "foreign
expertise" in its efforts.
The IAEA evidence suggested that Iran may have been researching
methods to incorporate a nuclear weapon into the cone of its
Shahab-3
missile system. The IAEA has requested materials to clarify
this possibility, but the Iranian government has refused,
claiming that missile information is a national security matter
and not germane to questions about its nuclear program.
Representatives of the P5+1 are planning to meet on September
25 to discuss another possible round of sanctions on Iran
in the aftermath of the IAEA report. A statement by Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claimed that further sanctions
would not impact Iran's decisions, asserting that "The era
of (uranium enrichment) suspension has ended… Iran's position
on the nuclear issue has not changed."
In Israel Tzipi Livni was elected
as the new leader of the ruling Kadima Party, and the process
of forming a new government has begun. It remains to be seen
whether a new Israeli leadership will adopt a different approach
to Iran's nuclear program.
For more information on Iran's nuclear program, see BASIC's
bi-weekly Iran Update.
MISSILE DEFENSE
U.S.-Czech Deal
While in London for NATO's informal meeting of Defense Ministers
on September 19, U.S. and Czech officials signed
a Status of Forces Agreement, which finalized a series of
administration-level agreements for the Czech Republic to
host an X-band radar as part of a U.S. missile defense system
in Europe. Russia has indicated that it views any such radar
installation as contrary to its security interests. Czech
Prime Minister Mirek
Topolanek called the radar "purely defensive" and commented
"it cannot be ... used against the state like the Russian
Federation with the arsenal of thousands of such missiles."
The Bush Administration is also developing plans to base
ten missile interceptors in Poland. According to Polish Foreign
Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, U.S. Senator and presidential
candidate Barack
Obama told him that he would support a missile defense
deal for Europe only if the system were clearly not aimed
at Russia. Agreements between the United States and the Czech
Republic and Poland still await ratification by the countries'
legislatures, where there is considerable opposition.
FURTHER READING
Series Overview: The Future of U.S. Missile Defense,
National Public Radio, September 22, 2008
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?
storyId=94900239&ft=1&f=1004
Brown goes nuclear, David Lowry, The Guardian,
September 20, 2008
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/
sep/20/nuclear.nuclearpower
Plan to Stop Buying Strategic Missile Motors is a Mistake,
Loren Thompson, Issue Brief, Lexington Institute, September
18, 2008
http://lexingtoninstitute.org/1322.shtml
Ask McCain and Obama about Missile defense, Philip
Coyle, Center for Defense Information, September 18, 2008
http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?
DocumentID=4371&from_page=../index.cfm
Testing the test-ban treaty: an inspection exercise in
Kazakhstan, Rebecca Johnson, Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists, September 15, 2008
http://thebulletin.org/web-edition/reports/testing-the-test-ban-treaty/
testing-the-test-ban-treaty-an-inspection-exercise-k
The U.S.-India Nuclear Deal: Six Reasons Why America Can
Wait, Frankie Sturm, Backgrounder, Truman National
Security Project, September 15, 2008
http://www.trumanproject.org/files/backgrounders/
backgrounder_9-5-08.pdf
Bush overstates threat posed by a nuclear Iran, Ward
Wilson, Chicago Tribune, September 14, 2008
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/
chi-iran-nuclear-war-thinksep14,0,5129442.story
Correcting the Record: Arms Experts Respond to Secretary
Rice's Claims about Bush Administration Nuclear Control Accomplishments,
Arms Control Association, September 10, 2008
http://www.armscontrol.org/node/3346
Seize chance to free world of nuclear weapons , Susan
Gordon and Martin Fleck, Des Moines Register, September
8, 2008
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?
AID=/20080908/OPINION01/809080310/-1/BUSINESS04
What about the nukes?, Portland Oregonian,
September 1, 2008
http://www.oregonlive.com/editorials/oregonian/index.ssf?
/base/editorial/1220054112280990.xml&coll=7
Deterring State Sponsorship of Nuclear Terrorism,
Michael A. Levi, Council on Foreign Relations, September 2008
http://www.cfr.org/publication/17171/deterring_state_sponsorship
_of_nuclear_terrorism.html?
breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2Fby_type%2Fspecial_report
Sea-based missile defense: Expanding the Options
A joint study by the Center for American Progress and the
Lexington Institute, August 28, 2008
http://lexingtoninstitute.org/docs/819.pdf
The nuclear deterrent that fails to deter, Daniel
Flitton, The Age, August 26, 2008
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/
the-nuclear-deterrent-that-fails-to-deter-20080825-422o.html?
page=-1
In Nuclear Net's Undoing, a Web of Shadowy Deals,
William J. Broad and David A. Sanger, The New York Times,
August 24, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/25/world/
25nuke.html?ref=todayspaper&pagewanted=all
Take Steps Toward a Nuclear-Free Future, San Francisco
Chronicle, August 24, 2008
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/08/24/
EDIQ12DQOJ.DTL&hw=nuclear+section%3Ded+in&sn=005&sc=1000
Abolishing Nuclear Weapons , George Perkovich and
James M. Acton, Adelphi Paper: Volume 48, Issue 396,
Institute for International and Strategic Studies
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/
content~content=a901428292~db=all~order=page
BASIC AND GETTING TO ZERO (GTZ)
BASIC has submitted a 10-page
brief (PDF) of recommendations for the U.S. Strategic
Posture Review Commission (SPRC), September 10, 2008
For summary and background information, see:
http://www.basicint.org/nuclear/SPRC.htm
The Dilemma between Deterrence and Disarmament: Moving
beyond the Perception of China as a Nuclear Threat (PDF),
Stephen Herzog, BASIC Paper, No. 57, August 2008
http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Papers/BP57.pdf
Visit the GTZ BLOG and post
a comment!
BASIC's work is made possible by the generous support of
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Fund, the Ford Foundation,
the Joseph Rowntree Charitable
Trust, Polden
Puckham Charitable Foundation, and Rockefeller Family
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