Iran Update
News and comment on the diplomatic movements
over Iran's nuclear programme
No. 123 - 7 August 2008
This update is sent out every two weeks. If
you don't want to receive it, please send an email to request
removal from the list. Feedback on format and content is also
gladly received. In particular we are keen to hear feedback
of how useful you find this update. Please e-mail comments
by reply to pingram at basicint.org.
An archive of previous Iran Updates is available
at: http://www.basicint.org/updates/iran.htm.
Summary
- Iran misses supposed imposed deadline to respond to P5+1
updated incentives package
- Solana receives letter from Tehran, P5+1 reported to have
deemed it an "unacceptable" response
- Israeli officials visit Washington, urge harsh stance
on Iranian nuclear program
- Iran announces test of new anti-ship missile
- Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) supports Iran's right to peaceful
atomic power (but not to call for lifting of sanctions)
- Ahmadinejad claims Iran has 6,000 centrifuges
- Questions regarding Azeri customs and Russian shipments
to Bushehr facility
Iran missed the claimed informal deadline of August 2 to
respond to the updated incentives package
presented in June to the country's top nuclear negotiator
Saeed Jalili by European Union Common Foreign and Security
Policy (CFSP) High Representative Javier Solana. The move
follows a statement
by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on July 30
that Iran will continue to pursue its enrichment of uranium
for "peaceful nuclear energy." While Western officials criticized
the lack of response from Iran and spoke of new sanctions,
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki denied
that any such deadline had been set. "The language of deadline-setting
is not understandable to us. We gave them our response within
a month as we said we would, now they have to reply to us,"
said Mottaki. Vitaly Churkin, Russia's ambassador to the United
Nations, also said
that no deadline was agreed upon.
Jalili and Solana spoke
by telephone on August 4, with no clear results apparent from
their conversation. The next day, a letter
from Tehran was delivered to Solana's office. The P5+1 countries
met on August 6 to discuss the letter. The United States and
France quickly rejected
the Iranian letter (reported to have been two paragraphs long),
with officials stating that it does not provide "a clear response"
to the freeze-for-freeze option and contained no new information
on the Iranian position. As a result the P5+1 countries were
reported by a U.S. official to have discussed
the possibility of levying additional sanctions on Iran.
Senior Israeli officials visited
Washington on July 28 for high-level talks on security issues,
including the Iranian nuclear program. The trip follows July
visits by Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi, Chief of the
IDF's General Staff, to the United States and Admiral Michael
Mullen, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, to Israel.
The visiting Israeli officials were Defense Minister Ehud
Barak, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Transportation Minister
Shaul Mofaz (who recently spoke of the inevitability of an
Israeli strike against Iran).
In a meeting with U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates,
Barak urged
his American counterpart to "keep all options on the table"
with Iran and pushed for the strengthening of sanctions against
Tehran. Barak also received
a commitment from the United States to connect Israel into
the planned U.S. global BMD system and a pledge of logistical
support to help the Israelis improve their own missile defenses.
Speaking on CNN's Late Edition on Sunday, August 3-after the
passing of the supposed Saturday deadline set by the P5+1-Livni
said, "It is clear that Iran does not pay attention to talks.
And this is a clear message to the international community
to continue with real and effective sanctions." With the announcement
of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's resignation, Livni, Mofaz,
and Barak are all expected to be candidates for the prime
ministership. Hardline opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu
is another possible candidate for the position.
General Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of Iran's Revolutionary
Guards, announced
on August 4 that Iran had tested a new anti-ship missile.
Jafari said that the missile had a range of up to 300 km (186
miles) from Iran's coast and was developed with homegrown
technology. "Given the equipment our armed forces have, an
indefinite blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be very
easy," Jafari contended.
In recent weeks, Iranian military commanders and politicians
have made threats to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, triggering
reactions from the West. For more information on the threats
over the Strait, see BASIC's July 11 Iran Update.
The Tehran Times reports
that American political analyst George Friedman believes that
global crude oil prices could exceed $300 a barrel in the
event of a confrontation between the United States and/or
Israel and Iran, which would be "cataclysmic to the global
economy and stock markets." Meanwhile, Sheikh Mohammed Sabah
al-Salem al-Sabah, the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister, spoke
out against Iranian threats to blockade the Strait, arguing
that this would be a "punishment" for the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) states. Sheikh Mohammed also discouraged military
action against Iran.
On July 30, the 115 states present at a Tehran-based Ministerial
Conference of the 118-member Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) endorsed
Iran's right to peaceful atomic energy. Iranian officials
asserted that the meeting disproved claims by Western nations
that the international community disapproved of the country's
nuclear program. At the beginning of the conference, Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told
the attending delegates that "[t]he major powers are on a
descending course. The extent of their influence drops day
by day. They are approaching the end of their era." The statement
of the NAM is a bittersweet victory for Iran, however, as
Tehran had wanted
the group to demand an end to United Nations sanctions against
Iran, and the NAM's support was for an Iranian nuclear program,
not explicitly a full domestic nuclear fuel cycle. Only Cuba,
Venezuela, and Belarus expressed support for the proposal
to end sanctions.
Ahmadinejad announced
on July 26 that "Islamic Iran today possesses 6,000 centrifuges."
This is twice the number of operational centrifuges that Iran
claimed it had in November 2007. Ahmadinejad also said that
the P5+1 countries had instructed Iran not to add centrifuges
beyond the 6,000 in their freeze-for-freeze offer, rather
than to suspend uranium enrichment altogether. Iran is reported
to have begun the development of the IR-3
in April. The IR-3 is a more advanced subcritical centrifuge,
designed to increase the efficiency of Iran's uranium enrichment
program. In the past, Iranian officials have stated that the
Islamic Republic intends to have a peaceful uranium enrichment
program with over 50,000 operational centrifuges.
In related news, Majid Faizullai, the spokesman for the Iranian
Embassy in Azerbaijan, rejected
allegations that in April Azeri authorities had delayed the
shipment of Russian heat insulators bound for Iran's Bushehr
facility. Customs authorities claim to have confiscated the
materials for a month because they did not receive information
on the cargo from Russia in a "timely and appropriate manner."
Recently, there have been reports of another such incident
in which Azeri authorities seized Russian cargo destined for
Bushehr, but Azerbaijan's State Customs Committee was quick
to deny
the charges.
Stephen Herzog, BASIC
Stories and Links
U.S., China, Russia Agree to Seek More Iran Sanctions,
by Patrick Donahue and Janine Zacharia, Bloomberg, 06/08
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=
a78FGb.ZhbuQ&refer=home
'Freeze-for-freeze' package ignored as Iran stalls for
time on nuclear demands, by Andrew Black, The Guardian,
06/08 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/06/iran.nuclear
EU exports to Iran rising despite sanctions, Reuters
UK, 06/08 http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL645094520080806
Mofaz: Iran is the root of all evil, threat to world peace,
by Mazal Mualem, Haaretz, 06/08
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1009083.html
Iran heartened by India's nuclear vote, by Kaveh Afrasiabi,
Asia Times, 05/08 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JH05Ak01.html
Iran wants diplomacy to resolve nuclear stand-off,
The Scotsman, 03/08
http://news.scotsman.com/world/Iran-wants-diplomacy-to-resolve.4353071.jp
Oil prices spike as Iran N-row returns to haunt market,
Daily Times, 03/08 http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C08%5C03%5C
story
_3-8-2008_pg5_23
Syria committed to helping settle Iran's nuclear issue,
Xinhua, 03/08 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-08/03/content_8934332.htm
Bahrain to G5+1: Cooperate with Iran, Press TV, 02/08
http://www.presstv.ir/Detail.aspx?id=65415§ionid=351020104
MFA expresses disappointment on the signing of German-Iranian
gas production contract, Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
31/07 http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/About+the+Ministry/MFA+Spokesman/
2008/MFA+expresses+disappointment+at+the+signing+of+a+gas+
production+contract+between+Germany+and+Iran+31.htm
Iran says nonproliferation system unfairly favors nuclear
powers, RIA Novosti, 29/07
http://en.rian.ru/world/20080729/115158979.html
Iranian Hackers Attempt to Silence Peace Message from
American Jews, by Martin Barillas, The Cutting Edge,
28/07 http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=666&pageid=
17&pagename=News
Iran's S-300 Delivery Debated as Israel Delays Pre-emptive
Strike Allowing Diplomatic Progress a Chance, by Edwin
Black, The Cutting Edge, 28/07 http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=673&pageid=
20&pagename=Security
FM asks NAM to back Iran's bid for Security Council seat,
Mehr News Agency, 27/07
http://www.mehrnews.com/en/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=723249
Mystery explosions point to Iran's secret arms shipments
to terrorists, by Con Coughlin, Telegraph, 25/07
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/07/
25/do2503.xml
US Warns Iran Time Running Out for Nuclear Deal, by
Sonja Pace, Voice of America News, 25/07
http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-07-25-voa33.cfm
Iran Hopeful for Substantial Negotiations on N. Issue,
FARS News Agency, 25/07 http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8705040651
European Union says it won't support military action against
Iran, The Canadian Press, 22/07
http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5h0Dq8w_
ZN5JpCcFUP8oO-6wbVUxg
Comments, Editorial and Analysis
The Iranian Chess Game Continues, by William Beeman,
Foreign Policy in Focus, 06/08
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5445
While Diplomats Dither, Iran Builds Nukes, by John
Bolton, The Wall Street Journal via AEI, 05/08
http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.28426/pub_detail.asp
How to deal with Iran's nuclear programme, by Andrew
Grotto, The Guardian, 04/08
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/04/usforeignpolicy.iran
In Sight: an Amicable Endgame in Iran, Jonathan Laing,
Barron's, 04/08 http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121764266163806675.html?mod=
googlenews_barrons
It is time for U.S.-Iran détente, by Muqtedar
Khan, Aljazeera Magazine, 03/08 http://aljazeera.com/news/newsfull.php?newid=145700
U.S.-Israel Talks on Iran 'Legitimize War', CBN News,
28/07 http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/417562.aspx
U.S. Reaching Out To Iranians, Voice of America News,
26/07 http://www.voanews.com/uspolicy/2008-07-25-voa6.cfm
Iran's possible bargain hunt, by Kamal Nazer Yasin,
ISN Security Watch, 25/07 http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=19236
|
