Iran Update
News and comment on the diplomatic movements
over Iran's nuclear programme
No. 120 - 23 June 2008
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Summary
- Solana delivers revised P5+1 incentives package to Tehran
- Iran will consider it
- Bush pushes European allies for further sanctions
- Obama offers security guarantee to Israel vis-à-vis Iran
- Growing segments of Israeli political class support Iran
strike
Prior to the media announcement from Gordon Brown of deeper
sanctions, Javier Solana, High Representative for the EU's
Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), traveled
to Tehran on June 13th for talks with Iran's top nuclear negotiator,
Saeed Jalili. Solana presented
Jalili with a revised version of the incentives package he
proposed to Iran on behalf of the P5+1 nations in June 2006.
The updated
incentives package is said to offer a path to the normalization
of trade and diplomatic relations between Iran and the West-including
potential WTO membership in the future, assistance in the
development of a civilian nuclear program under the guidelines
of the NPT, and technological assistance to modernize Iran's
economy and educational system. Negotiation around the package,
however, depends upon Iran's prior cessation of its uranium
enrichment, a condition which Iran's Ambassador to the IAEA,
Ali-Asghar Soltaniyeh, referred
to as "illegal" and out of the question. Given such rhetoric
it may not have been a surprise that President Bush was premature
in condemning Iran's rejection of the offer, though there
are also strong suggestions from some
commentators that he and other leaders were not being
wholly honest in the offer.
Nevertheless, Foreign Minister Mottaki and Saeed Jalili gave
a much more
positive response to the package than European diplomats
were expecting. They did, though, also request a response
from the Europeans to their own offer made on 13 May and reported
in the
last BASIC update, which called for a broader negotiation
and proposed an international enrichment consortium within
Iran. The Europeans also delivered a 'freeze-for-freeze' offer
over the weekend as a first step - no more centrifuges for
no more sanctions. Iran will have one month to decide whether
it will accept or decline the revised package.
US President Bush made his final trip to Europe from June
10th to 16th, visiting Slovenia, Germany, Italy, France and
the United Kingdom. One of the primary objectives of Bush's
"farewell tour" was to gain support for the administration's
hard line on Iran from America's European allies. During his
visit, Bush argued
for additional sanctions to isolate Iran from the international
community and emphasized the need for multilateral
opposition to Iran's nuclear program. Bush secured
support from the key premiers he visited. French President
Sarkozy made
a curious comment of the Iranians that was perhaps more revealing
than he meant: "If they have nothing to hide, they should
show it." UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, standing alongside
President Bush on June 16th, announced new British sanctions
targeting Bank Melli, Iran's largest bank, and the Iranian
gas and oil sectors, and hinted that the rest of Europe planned
to follow suit. Later that day in Luxembourg, the leaders
of the nations of the European Union agreed
on the need for further sanctions against Iran, including
the freezing of Bank Melli's assets in Europe, but delayed
the decision to implement the new sanctions until Iran responds
to the revised P5+1 incentives package. Despite pressure from
Britain, there are signs
of resistance within Europe to stronger sanctions at a
time when oil prices are rising and consumers hostile to political
moves that have a significant economic cost. As a result of
the threat, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was reported
to have ordered the wiring
of $75 billion of Iran's assets in Europe back to Tehran
for investment in Asian financial institutions, though this
was denied
by the head of Bank Mellat.
In a June
4th speech before an audience at the American Israeli
Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), presumptive US Democratic
Party nominee Barrack Obama offered strong guarantees to Israel's
security in the context of Iran's nuclear program. Obama stated
that "[t]here is no greater threat to Israel-or to the peace
and stability of the [Middle East]-than Iran." While Obama
stressed the need to engage Iran in aggressive diplomacy-without
preconditions to negotiations-he refused to take the option
of a military intervention off the table. Obama asserted that
"[he] will do everything in [his] power to prevent Iran from
obtaining a nuclear weapon". While the speech drew praise
from Israeli politicians and the American Jewish community,
it provoked harsh
criticism from the Iranian government and media, and disappointment
from many who were hoping for a shift away from military threats.
A Senate Finance Committee voted
on June 18 to impose stronger unilateral trade and financial
sanctions against Iran.
Iran's refusal to cease uranium enrichment, in light of international
pressure, has provoked
reactions across the parties in the Knesset, Israel's parliament.
Some moderates are starting to suggest that a military strike
against Iran may be a strategically viable option. Former
Defense Minister, and current Transportation Minister, Shaul
Mofaz recently referred to military operation against Iran
as "unavoidable". There is widespread concern among Israeli
politicians that the window of opportunity to gain American
support for such an option is quickly closing as the Bush
administration's term expires. While Bush has repeatedly said
that "all options are on the table," the hawks perceive Barrack
Obama as "soft" on Iran and do not believe that John McCain
would launch a military operation during his first year in
office. Noting past Israeli strikes against Iraqi and Syrian
reactors, most military analysts speculate
that an operation against Iran may occur through similar means.
Israel has attempted
to purchase the cutting-edge, 5th generation American F-22
Raptor stealth fighters for just such purposes, and Iran
has acquired S-300
air defense missile systems from Russia to repel such
attacks. US officials sought
to highlight a recent Israeli military exercise involving
more than 100 F15-I and F16-I fighter-bombers as a challenge
to Iran, and this led to warnings
from Russia to Israel and the US to stick to international
law.
Stephen Herzog, with additions from Paul Ingram, BASIC
Stories and Links
Iran pledges to continue enrichment, but stay in nuclear
treaty, Ria Novosti, June 18
http://en.rian.ru/world/20080618/111105022.html
Europeans Impose New Sanctions on Iran, NTI Newswire,
June 16
http://www.nti.org/d_newswire/issues/2008_6_16.html#B9584F57
Japan calls for strong G8 message against nuclear programs
of Iran, Nkorea, Forbes, June 16
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/06/16/afx5118939.html
Iran Rejects Six-Nation Proposal, by Thomas Erdbrink
and Robin Wright, Washington Post, June 15
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
yn/content/article/2008/06/14/AR2008061400831.html
Berlusconi offers Bush help with Iran nuclear issue,
Tehran Times, June 14
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=170636
EU's Solana delivers incentive package to Iran, Lebanon
Wire, June 14
http://www.lebanonwire.com/0806MLN/08061413DP.asp
Former U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix rips U.S. approach
on Iran's nuclear program, International Herald Tribune,
June 12
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/06/12/
europe/EU-GEN-Italy-Iran-Nuclear.php
Push for Berlin to cut Iran ties, The Age,
June 12
http://www.theage.com.au/world/
push-for-berlin-to-cut-iran-ties-20080611-2p1y.html
Bush warns 'all options' open on Iran, AFP, June 11
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryId=121453
Bush, E.U. Threaten New Sanctions Against Iran, by
Dan Eggen, Washington Post, June 10
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-yn/content/
article/2008/06/10/AR2008061000184.html?nav=rss_world
U.S. open to more talks with Iran on Iraq, by Adrian
Croft, Reuters, June 10
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1037250220080610?
feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews
Senate: Iranian intel concealed from CIA, DIA, by
Pamela Hess, AP, June 5
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jTtPj7wRc_KyOh7m89q1DrCQmkNgD913VMS88
Rice Calls Dialogue With Iran Pointless, by Helene
Cooper and Isabel Kershner, New York Times, June 4
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/04/washington/04diplo.html?ref=world
Top US senator stresses "no alternative" to Iran diplomacy,
Islamic Republic News Agency, June 4
http://www2.irna.com/en/news/view/line-20/0806048238210031.htm
McCain Unaware of Obama's Iran Divestment Bill, by
Chris Good, The Hill, June 4
http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008/06/04/
mccain-unaware-of-obamas-iran-divestment-bill/
McCain Urges Broader Iran Sanctions, Criticizes Obama,
by Hans Nichols, Bloomberg, June 2
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aBige8kEt9bs&refer=us
Comments, Editorial and Analysis
Attacking Iran: The last resort, by David Isenberg,
Asia Times, June 19
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JF19Ak02.html
NYT Exposes Fraud of "Generous Offer" to Iran, by
Robert Naiman, Huffington Post, June 17
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/
nyt-exposes-fraud-of-gene_b_107569.html
To war or not to war with Iran: that is the temptation,
by Ismail Salami, Press TV, June 9
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=59310§ionid=3510303
Will Congress Heed McClellan's Iran Warning?, by Robert
Naiman, Huffington Post, June 6
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/
will-congress-heed-mcclel_b_105738.html
Soft on Iran?, by Joe Miller, Newsweek, June
5
http://www.newsweek.com/id/140174
A New Tack Toward Tehran, by Andrew Grotto, Center
for American Progress, May 28
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/05/new_tack.html
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