PRESS RELEASE

7 October 2002

Public Opinion in Europe on War with Iraq

Gauging public opinion in Europe on the vexed question of whether to wage war against Iraq is more an art form than a science, depending on how questions are posed and collated and what particular issue is in the headlines on the day of the poll.

Clearly, there is substantial agreement on the need to bring Iraq back into the United Nations fold and for Saddam Hussein to accept that his country must adhere to existing Security Council resolutions. There is also substantial agreement on the need to get weapons inspectors, under the auspices of UNMOVIC and the IAEA, into Iraq as soon as possible.

But there the consensus begins to break down. How to achieve these objectives?

Most European leaders have indicated that they prefer to give the diplomatic route a chance and to hold back on issuing ultimatums. It is indicative that in France, where President Chirac is judged to have played a judicious role, there have been no major demonstrations opposing war. Chancellor Schroder has been remarkably outspoken on the subject, a stance that seemed to ease him back into office while President Berlusconi’s vocal support for the U.S. Administration has been partly responsible for large turnouts of protesters in Italy. There have also been large demonstrations in Spain.

Prime Minister Blair has made it plain that he believes that Iraq has only responded because of external pressure but he has been more conciliatory on the need to go back and seek UN authorisation for intervention. This seems to have curbed growing unease in government ranks and, to an extent, in the wider governing party at its annual conference in Blackpool. A substantial proportion of the general public may be less convinced given the size of the anti-war demonstration in London last month.

Perhaps the prospect of a new UN resolution, or resolutions, would curry more favour internationally if the U.S. Administration was less dismissive of Iraq’s offer to readmit weapons inspectors, less prescriptive in issuing ultimatums which appear to be inviting rejection and less determined to prosecute a war with the stated objective of removing Saddam Hussein. What is clear from the various public opinion polls and political commentary in Europe is the dramatic fall in support for U.S. unilateral intervention in Iraq without Security Council authorisation based on Chapter VII of the Charter of the UN.

BASIC Director Ian Davis said:
“Not least of the concerns exercising public opinion in Europe, is the vital question of what form of governance would follow the collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime and how committed the United Nations, or the most powerful aggregate of its disparate parts, would be to building a stable successor acceptable to the majority of Iraqis?”    

Links to further reading:

Blair warned war to oust Saddam 'illegal’ by Jean Eaglesham, 
Financial Times, 7 October 2002.

‘France Downplays UN Sec Council Differences on Iraq’ by Reuters, 
7 October 2002.

‘Blair's picture burnt as protests sweep Italy’  by Richard Owen, The Times, 
7 October 2002. 

‘Help us to stop the war’ by Scott Ritter, Guardian, 7 October 2002.

‘France takes centre stage in Iraq crisis’ by Jon Henley, Guardian, 
7 October 2002.

‘Anti-War Voices Rise, But With Twist’ by Peter Ford, 
Christian Science Monitor, 2 October 2002.

‘Support fades for military action against Iraq’ by Alan Travis, Guardian, 
1 October 2002.

‘A French-US Divide Suddenly Grows Wider’ by Joseph Fitchett, 
International Herald Tribune, 30 September 2002.

For further comment please contact please contact:
BASIC Analyst/Press Officer Nigel Chamberlain
London Office: +44 (0)207-407-2977
.