The UK Government's Road to 2010 - much
to welcome, but still looking under-developed in key areas
BASIC Media Advisory
Thursday, 16 July 2009
The Prime Minister has today released his
Road
to 2010. In response, Paul Ingram, Executive Director
of BASIC, said: "We welcome this publication as an outline
of the urgent work needed to maximize the chances of success
at the NPT Review Conference next May. Britain has played
a positive role in persuading fellow nuclear weapon states
to commit to disarmament. The alternative to success is a
descent towards nuclear anarchy and unmanageable risk. Nevertheless,
the government's map published today appears in places under-developed,
and we look forward to seeing further statements and commitments
in the months to come prior to the NPT Review Conference in
May 2010."
In particular:
1) We approve of the concrete commitments
made in the paper, such as:
a. the establishment of a national centre of excellence
to develop proliferation-resistant technologies;
b. the proposal to host a funders meeting to discuss future
resourcing of the IAEA with a view to increasing significantly
its capabilities and powers, and press for a political commitment
in 2010 to expand involvement in relevant safeguards agreements;
as well as
c. the existing commitment to host a NWS conference in
early September in London to build confidence in steps towards
disarmament.
2) The list of multilateral disarmament initiatives,
however, contains no explicit reference to progress on some
of the most important steps to achieving a successful NPT
Review Conference, demanded by signatory partners:
a. measures to encourage the US and Russia to de-alert
arsenals, increase warning times, and take their systems
off hair-trigger alert. This ought to be a relatively simple
agreement in the first instance -all other states possessing
nuclear weapons, including the UK, have their forces off
hair-trigger status.
b. negative security assurances - non-nuclear weapon
states are demanding guarantees that they will not be the
victim of a nuclear attack - a key plank in assurance if
we are to prevent further proliferation. Obstacles to these
guarantees could be overcome relatively easily. Fears from
some nuclear weapon states that they could be attacked by
an alliance of non-nuclear weapon states are simply not
credible.
c. changes in doctrine to limit nuclear deterrence
only to prevent the threat of nuclear use, as currently
being considered by the Obama administration in its Nuclear
Posture Review due at the end of this year.
3) In this regard, we welcome in particular
the explicit government commitment in Road to 2010
to ensure that NATO's nuclear doctrines and capabilities are
appropriate to security challenges in the 21st century, and
believe that if this is genuine, Britain will be working with
its partners to build up the confidence to end the forward
deployment of NATO's tactical nuclear weapons in Europe at
an early date. [paragraph 5.42]
4) The Road to 2010 is, however, unduly
pessimistic about the prospects for disarmament, saying: "Ultimately,
states will only give up these weapons if they feel confident
and secure they are no longer required". [paragraph 5.44]
This sets the bar impossibly high. In contrast, one of the
fundamental shifts we are witnessing today is that many former
and serving officials, in calling for a world free of nuclear
weapons, point out that states are beginning to realize that
the dangers of retaining nuclear weapons outweigh the benefits
they believe they derive from possessing them.
5) There was never an expectation that the
road map would contain any breakthrough announcement on Trident;
nevertheless, in referencing the UK's own deterrent, the Road
to 2010 falls into several traps [paragraph 5.38]:
a. "The Road to Zero requires multilateral disarmament",
appears then to be phrased as if in opposition to unilateral
moves. The measures the UK itself has already undertaken,
as highlighted in box 5.2, p.32, have been unilateral in
nature, and have, as HMG suggests, assisted in the multilateral
process. It is deeply mistaken and possibly disingenuous
to over-simplify and separate out multilateralism and unilateralism
as if opposed, as a justification for replacing Trident.
b. It is disappointing that at the end of the same paragraph
the opportunity was lost to clarify that Britain's deterrent
is not only just for self-defence in extreme circumstances,
but that it is only appropriate to deter the threat of nuclear
use by other states.
Paul Ingram, BASIC's Executive Director,
said: "The government faces some important decisions in the
coming months around its own nuclear arsenal as the Trident
follow-on project passes through its initial gate stage. We
will be looking for some concrete decisions regarding this
project that recognize Britain's role in promoting reduced
readiness, such as reducing the frequency of patrols, a move
that has financial benefits for the taxpayer too."
6) We agree with Road to 2010 that
nuclear security is crucial, and welcome the renewed commitment
to strengthening security. [Chapter4] The Global Partnership
and Cooperative Threat Reduction programmes have unfortunately
been insufficiently funded by participating governments across
Europe in recent years when compared to the challenges, so
the greater focus on this by both HMG and the Obama administration
is positive. Nevertheless, to propose that this becomes a
fourth pillar of the NPT bargain, whilst clearly well intentioned,
could dangerously confuse and complicate the process, and
there is a danger that it becomes part of the complex bargaining
that already has held up progress in NPT negotiations in the
past. If anything, the NPT bargain needs to be simplified
- in that the security of all states would simply be strengthened
by tighter non-proliferation rules and by moves towards a
world free of nuclear weapons.
NOTES
The Road to 2010, Addressing the nuclear question in the
21st century, Cabinet Office, 16 July 2009, Cmd 7675.
(http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/media/224864/roadto2010.pdf)
This publication is the result of a process started by the
Prime Minister on 17th March.
Paul Ingram, Executive Director, can be reached
for interview on:
+44 (0)7908 708175
pingram at basicint.org
ENDS
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