BASIC MEDIA ADVISORY
Wednesday 27 June 2007 - IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Gordon Brown PM:
A new dawn in U.K.-foreign policy or business as usual?
Dr Ian Davis, Co-Executive Director, BASIC
1. Introduction
Second only to a General Election, this week marks the biggest
political change in the U.K. in the past decade. After a decade
waiting in the wings, Gordon Brown formally became Labour leader
on June 24 and Prime Minister today. He secured the Labour leadership
unopposed (by gaining the support of 308 Labour MPs, and because
key challengers failed to get the 45 MP nominations required to
force a leadership contest). His legislative program will be announced
in a Queen's Speech in November.
2. Background
2.1 Character
Admirers describe him as intellectually awesome, physically impressive,
morally impeccable and seriously committed. Born in Glasgow in February
1951, the son of a Presbyterian minister, he describes his parents
as the "moral compass" in his life. He was academically rigorous
and entered Edinburgh University at 16 to study history, emerging
with a first class degree and later a doctorate. He went on to lecture
in Edinburgh and work as a journalist in Scottish television. He
became MP for Dunfermline East in Fife in 1983 and served there
until 2005 when he became MP for Kircaldy and Cowdenbeath (a new
seat after boundary changes).
In his youth he suffered a detached retina playing rugby, which
has left him partially blind in one eye. Gordon Brown is a family
man with two young children. He wed the public relations executive
Sarah Macaulay in Fife in 2000 after a four-year courtship. In January
2002, their 10-day-old daughter, Jennifer, died after being born
two months prematurely. They later had two sons; the second, born
in 2006, has been diagnosed with cystic fibrosis.
His Treasury website biography gives the impression of a man totally
committed to politics, with personal interests listed simply as
"football, tennis and film". The chancellor has written several
books, most recently one entitled "Courage", which examines several
characters who have inspired him, including Robert Kennedy, Martin
Luther King and Nelson Mandela. He is the first prime minister since
Clement Atlee, 60 years ago, not to drive a car.
Critics call him dour, and a "control freak" possessed of "Stalinist
ruthlessness". But as the longest-serving chancellor in modern British
history he is undeniably a political heavyweight. However, even
after more than a decade of scrutiny, his nature remains enigmatic
and his depths not fully fathomed: the "great puzzle" according
to the New York Times. Sir John Major recently said that he did
not really know Gordon Brown, adding: "I'm not one of the six people
who do."
2.2 The Blair-Brown rivalry
Tony Blair also entered parliament in 1983 and shared an office
with Gordon Brown. The pair became friends and rivals. When the
Labour leader John Smith died unexpectedly in May 1994, many believed
Brown was the most likely to succeed him, but Blair emerged from
the sidelines. Some commentators have described Gordon Brown as
a Shakespearean character; a brooding Hamlet, who has dithered in
his rivalry with Blair.
2.3 Five key challenges facing the new PM
-
Holding on to the Crown: In David Cameron, the
Conservatives have finally found a leader who appears at ease
with modern Britain, and have been rewarded until very recently
with poll leads even on traditional Labour issues, such as health.
But the new PM will fight back on two fronts: Cameron's assumed
lack of substance and on Labour's record of high levels of public
spending, especially on the NHS. However, the latter could come
under pressure with tough limits on public spending predicted
over the next few years. The next UK general election must be
held on or before 3 June 2010. It is possible that it may be
held in June 2009 to coincide with elections to the European
Parliament or even as early as Spring 2008, if a confident Gordon
Brown were to take a sustained lead in the opinion polls. (A
Mori poll on June 24 gave him an 18 point lead over David Cameron
on the question of who is best placed to be Prime Minister).
-
The economy: The golden decade of growth with
low inflation is nearing an end; interest rates are at a six-year
high of 5.5%. The Comprehensive Spending Review is due to be
published in October outlining government spending over the
next 3-5 years. It is predicted to show a significant tightening
of public spending, with real cuts in several departments, and
slowed growth in others.
-
Health: The Labour Government has presided over
huge increases in health spending, which will reach £92bn ($180bn)
this year. Yet the government is facing protests by junior doctors,
furious at changes to their training, and voters unhappy at
hospital closures.
-
The English/Scottish divide (The 'West Lothian Question'):
Since devolution, the Scottish Parliament has exclusive power
to legislate on most domestic issues. This means that Scottish
MPs in Westminster have a say over exclusively English laws,
while English MPs have no say over these issues in Scotland.
The Scottish National Party formed a minority government in
Scotland in May and has promised a referendum on independence
within the 4-year term of office, but they need allies to push
through the necessary law to hold it.
-
Foreign policy, the relationship with the U.S., and
Iraq - see below
3. UK foreign policy and defense - the most urgent challenges
facing Brown
Gordon Brown has been relatively silent on the subject of foreign
policy. Despite recent speeches on Britishness, national security,
climate change and terrorism, he has left few clues as to his likely
strategies for the wider global security agenda - with the exception
of a long-standing commitment to tackling poverty in Africa. But
even here Brown is more comfortable on aid, debt relief and trade
(soft security), rather than the role of Britain's armed forces
in conflicts such as Darfur and the DRC (hard security). Brown will
want to act in such cases but he is likely to be more cautious about
the costs and complexities of intervention than his predecessor.
Career civil servants from the Foreign Office (rather than political
appointees) will become Brown's principal advisers on international
relations in an attempt to show that he is moving away from Blair's
much-criticised style of "sofa government". Brown is also expected
to herald a return to cabinet government and to make cabinet-level
appointments from outside the Labour Party (to create a 'government
of all the talents'). Simon McDonald, a former UK ambassador to
Israel who heads Iraq policy at the Foreign Office will replace
Sir Nigel Sheinwald as chief foreign policy adviser (Sheinwald is
heading for Washington as the British Ambassador). Jon Cunliffe,
the second permanent secretary at the Treasury, is set to take over
from Kim Darroch as the Prime Minister's main adviser on European
policy. The PM and his foreign and defence team face seven key
challenges:
Iraq and Afghanistan: Public opinion, which was split
down the middle on the merits of the 2003 invasion, now believes
that Blair presided over a blunder. Brown knows that there are no
quick fixes. He will not announce an immediate withdrawal of British
troops (having been part of the government that sent them in), but
he knows he must act fast to draw a line under the Blair era. British
military commanders are reported to have drawn up plans to withdraw
the vast majority of British troops from Iraq within 12 months to
concentrate on the war in Afghanistan. They believe British troops
are achieving little in southern Iraq and that their presence is
escalating the violence. Troop numbers have already been reduced
from 7,000 to 5,500 in recent weeks (as tabled in February). It
has also been suggested that Brown will try to take the sting out
of Iraq by quickly announcing an inquiry, but again, this is unlikely
while British forces are still in a combat role. He will be hoping
that the cross-party independent Commission into the future of the
U.K,'s role in Iraq (a U.K.-equivalent of the U.S. Iraq Study Group),
chaired by Lord Ashdown and Baroness Jay, will help build a new
consensus.
Iran: Could be his first major foreign policy test:
the start of his premiership coincides with the fallout, whether
positive or negative, of the Solana/Larijani talks to end the deadlock.
Iraq will undoubtedly color his policy towards Iran. While Blair
has refused to rule out military action, it is almost inconceivable
that a Brown government would support such action. Expect him to
pursue a diplomatic path as a way of preventing Iran building a
nuclear bomb, perhaps drawing on his economic experience to make
the case for more carrot and less stick.
Terrorism: Immediately after 9/11 Brown talked about
the need to address the underlying causes of conflict and extremism.
But he said very little about these issues in his recent national
security speeches, and he appears to take an identical line to Blair
on the balance between human rights and anti-terrorism legislation.
Climate change: Will continue to be a priority. In
April 2006, the chancellor used a speech to the U.N. to stress the
need of "great statesmanship" in tackling climate change, claiming
that protecting the environment can boost rather than hinder economic
growth. Nicholas Stern, author of the Stern report, has close links
to his Treasury officials; the report has had significant impact
within the Brown camp.
Policy towards the U.S. and EU: Brown is an admirer
of many aspects of U.S. society and a regular visitor. There is
nothing in his history to suggest a radical shift in the terms of
the Anglo-American relationship. In September last year, for example,
he gave strong backing to the United States in an article in popular
tabloid the Sun, suggesting those hoping for a significant tilt
away from Washington will be disappointed. But at the margin, he
would probably want to distance himself from aspects of Bush's foreign
policy-Guantánamo, the practice of extraordinary rendition and U.S.
hostility towards the U.N. The relationship is likely to become
closer again if a Democrat becomes president in 2008. As chancellor,
he has been an outspoken critic of the EU, finding much of its institutional
bureaucracy ponderous and ineffective. But to push the cause of
effective multilateralism he will need European allies.
International governance: Brown has been active in
the debate on reforming global financial institutions, and he may
be tempted to address broader reforms to the structures of multilateral
governance, including the U.N. and the G8.
Non-proliferation: While Brown backed spending on
a replacement for the Trident nuclear deterrent ("I can't see a
situation where a unilateral gesture by Britain would make any difference
to what other countries do"), he has also said that global talks
could lead to a reduction in nuclear armaments ("if we act multilaterally...
then I think we can get results in the next couple of years"). He
has already indicated that he is determined to make this issue a
strong foreign policy priority, and at a speech in Washington on
June 25, Margaret Beckett, the U.K. foreign secretary, spelt out
details of how Britain wants to become a "disarmament laboratory"
and unveiled concrete steps to champion multilateral nuclear reductions.
For a copy of her speech, click here.
Domestically, Gordon Brown will be hoping that the parliamentary
vote in March 2007 that committed Britain to a new generation of
nuclear-armed submarines will have put the issue to bed. But the
final 'main gate' decision on signing the expensive construction
contracts could be revisited by parliament in 2012-2014 and the
renewal program could be cancelled "should there be a fundamental
change for the better in the strategic environment". Thus, the March
2007 vote is not the end of the matter. A future British parliament
will face the choice of whether to build and deploy the submarines.
And with projections for the MoD's next 10-year plan (2011-21) revealing
a serious, multi-billion pound gap between available funding and
anticipated program costs (large conventional naval, air and land
acquisitions are due to coincide with major investment in Trident
replacement), something has to give. (For more on the U.K. Trident
debate click here).
4. Conclusions
Brown's foreign policy will be similar to Blair's. But expect new
shades and tones. Brown's thinking on these issues is still evolving,
and will do so quickly in office. He will be measured by what he
does in power (rather than by any advance mood music), how strong
he is in the face of unexpected events and how deft he is in navigating
the complex maneuvering of other leaders and the British media.
But as a rough guide, a Brown foreign policy is likely to be a little
less pro-Bush, more cautious about the deployment of British troops
overseas, more explicitly multilateralist and more engaged with
the global justice agenda than that of Tony Blair.
For more information please contact:
Dr Ian Davis: 202 546 8055; mobile: +44 7887 782 389
idavis@basicint.org
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