Getting to Zero
Working Towards a Nuclear Weapon-Free World
Also see:
BASIC Project Outline
"Nuclear weapons today present tremendous
dangers, but also an historic opportunity. U.S. leadership
will be required to take the world to the next stage -- to
a solid consensus for reversing reliance on nuclear weapons
globally as a vital contribution to preventing their proliferation
into potentially dangerous hands, and ultimately ending them
as a threat to the world."
George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, William Perry, Sam Nunn -
Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2007
"Over the past 15 years, the goal of the
elimination of nuclear weapons has been so much on the back
burner that it will take a true political breakthrough and
a major intellectual effort to achieve success in this endeavor.
It will be a challenge to the current generation of leaders,
a test of their maturity and ability to act that they must
not fail. It is our duty to help them to meet this challenge."
Mikhail Gorbachev - Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal, 31
January 2007
BASIC launched its "Getting to
Zero" project on its 20th anniversary on 6 November 2007.
This is an ambitious project which will require the organization
to grow and refocus its efforts. Our emphasis will be on cooperation
with others and on our transatlantic partnership, which has
served us well in the past.
The threat presented by nuclear weapons has never been greater.
Unlike conventional terrorism, the nuclear threat calls into
question our very existence. The "Grand Bargain" that has
been the heart of the non-proliferation regime for nearly
forty years is in danger of unraveling. In that bargain, embedded
in the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the non-nuclear
weapons states (NNWS) agreed to foreswear the development
of these weapons in exchange for the nuclear weapons states
(NWS) agreeing to negotiate in good faith to eliminate their
nuclear arsenals. But dissatisfaction with the lack of progress
by the NWS has led a number of NNWS to reconsider their options.
In an October 2006 address to a conference of the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Director General Mohamed ElBaradei,that,
should the non-proliferation regime fail, we could be living
in a future world of up to 30 nuclear powers.
It is this growing threat that has revived the idea of the
complete elimination of nuclear weapons. As President Gorbachev
said, this will require both a true political breakthrough
and a major intellectual effort. BASIC can contribute to both.
The next three years will be a crucial period. In the United
States, the Democratic-controlled House has scaled back, if
not completely eliminated, plans to rebuild the US nuclear
weapons complex and to develop a new generation of nuclear
warheads. A bipartisan group of distinguished national security
officials, including Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, William
Perry, and Sam Nunn, continue to actively promote their plan
to move towards a nuclear-free world. This Reykjavik group
or "Hoover Group" (named after the Hoover Institution at Stanford
which George Shultz heads) promotes the political breakthrough
required to breathe new life into the NPT. Non-proliferation
has figured prominently in the 2008 Presidential campaign,
with clear statements of support for greater disarmament from
both John McCain and Barack Obama.
The British government is committed to pursuing multilateral
negotiations to promote disarmament. This was the quid pro-quo
commitment made with the decision to replace Trident, reaffirmed
by the Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at the June 2007
Carnegie conference, and later by Prime Minister Gordon Brown
in a speech in India in January 2008, and by Defence Secretary
Des Browne in a landmark speech at the Conference on Disarmament
on5th February 2008. We will use a combination of insider
and outsider advocacy to encourage the government to pursue
concrete proposals with their governmental and non-governmental
partners. We will also bring internationally respected British
opinion-leaders to Washington to meet with their US counterparts.
Goals and objectives
BASIC embraces both the vision of eliminating nuclear weapons
and the practical steps necessary to get there.
Vision
We advocate cutting the Gordian Knot of the current non-proliferation
impasse by obtaining the endorsement of global leaders, in
particular the US and Russian Presidents, as well as the UK
Prime Minister, for renewing "the spirit of Reykjavik" and
the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons, and pledging
new realistic measures to move in that direction.
Milestones
In order for the vision of "Getting to Zero" to be credible,
concrete implementing steps should be proposed at an early
stage by US, Russian and UK leaders. In conjunction with our
partner organizations, we can also engage other nuclear weapons
states, such as China and France. The agenda must be flexible,
depending on both technical and political issues, including
especially verification. It must be rooted in the emerging
consensus as articulated by the Hoover Group and others, but
also highlight specific problems and propose practical solutions
to them. A preliminary list of suggested milestones includes:
- Progressive reduction of operationally deployed strategic
warheads, thus reducing the danger of "launch on warning"
where decisions must be made in minutes
- Freeze upgrading, modernization and replacement of nuclear
weapons. For the United States that would mean discontinuing
the "reliable replacement warhead" and the rebuilding of
the US nuclear weapons complex. For the United Kingdom,
that would mean deferring plans to replace Trident submarines
linked to diplomatic initiatives by the UK Government to
revive the non-proliferation and disarmament regime.
- US ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,
which the United Kingdom and Russia have done.
- The United States, with NATO agreement, should withdraw
the estimated 240 tactical nuclear weapons stationed in
Europe, and Russia should withdraw its tactical weapons
from operational deployment and place them in secure storage.
- The United States and Russia should extend the START
I Treaty for an additional 15 years, thus ensuring that
verification measures remain in force
- The United States and Russia should then agree on further
strategic arms reductions, to include reducing stockpiles
of stored warheads
- International differences over missile defense should
be resolved
- The United States should propose new research on ways
to verify a fissile materials cutoff treaty, thus opening
the way for renewed multilateral negotiations
- In preparation for the 2010 NPT Review Conference, the
United States, United Kingdom and Russia should begin discussing
steps towards nuclear disarmament which could be endorsed
multilaterally (no such steps were mentioned in 2005 due
to US opposition)
BASIC will report on progress regularly on this website and
through our Getting to Zero email
updates.
Latest News
Four prominent Italian political figures and one well-respected
physicist have come together to write an op-ed that endorses
the vision of a world without nuclear weapons. The article,
"For A World Free of Nuclear Weapons," was published
in Italy's leading newspaper, Il Corriere della Sera,
on 24 July. The authors include: Massimo D'Alema, former
Prime Minister and recent Minister of Foreign Affairs; Gianfranco
Fini, former Minister of Foreign Affairs and current Speaker
of the Chamber of Deputies; Giorgio La Malfa, former
Minister of European Affairs; Arturo Parisi, former
Minister of Defense and Francesco Calogero, Professor
of Physics, University of Rome and Secretary General of the
Pugwash Conference. For more information, see Laura Spagnuolo's
GTZ blogpost.
For more news, see BASIC's Getting
to Zero Update. The GTZ Update continues to follow developments
that are relevant to nuclear nonproliferation and the reduction
of existing nuclear stockpiles, as well as reporting on proposals
and political initiatives associated with this agenda. To
subscribe to BASIC Email Updates and receive GTZ Updates by
email, click here.
Latest Additions
-
India and the Nuclear Deal,
Siddharth Ramana, BASIC, Getting to Zero Paper, No. 7,
18 August 2008. Also available as a pdf
file.
-
The US-India Agreement and
its Impact on the Nonproliferation Regime, Philip
Maxon, BASIC, Getting to Zero Paper, No. 6, 18 August
2008. Also available as a pdf
file.
More on Getting to Zero
Working Towards a Nuclear Weapon-Free World
BASIC's work is made possible by the generous support
of our donors: the Ploughshares
Fund, the Ford Foundation,
the Joseph Rowntree Charitable
Trust, Polden
Puckham Charitable Foundation, Rockefeller Family &
Associates, and individual contributors to BASIC. We are grateful
to all of them for their support.
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