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Conflict Prevention and Crisis Management
Coverage of the Kosovo Crisis, 1999-2000
Kosovo: The Long Road to War
A Chronology 1992-1997
1992
11 January - The Arbitration Bodinter Commission issues several
separate opinions. In one decision with implications for Kosovo
Province, the Commission declares that external borders of
the SFRY would be recognized in all cases, and that former
Republican borders would assume the character of borders protected
by international law.
9 March - The 10th plenary session of the Conference
on Yugoslavia is held in Brussels, chaired by Lord Carrington
and attended by Cyrus Vance. Agreement is reached on continuous
work of three conference groups: institutional issues; rights
of minorities; and economic issues. The Conference proceeds
according to the assumptions of the Badinter Commission, thereby
leaving the question of human rights abuses in Kosovo out
of the negotiation process.
22 March - Slovenia and Croatia are admitted to full membership
of the CSCE at a session of the CSCE Ministerial Council.
6 April - The Ministerial Council of the EC adopts a Declaration
recognizing the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina within its
present borders.
7 April - US President George Bush signs a decree
on recognition of independence of Bosnia-Herzegovina (BH),
Croatia, and Slovenia within the present ("administrative")
boundaries of these former Yugoslav republics.
30 May - The UN Security Council adopts Resolution on Yugoslavia
757 imposing severe sanctions on the FR Yugoslavia (Montenegro
and Serbia, including its provinces of Kosovo and Vojvodina
and the region of Sandzak).
July-August - Milan Panic, a Serbian-American businessman
from California is appointed Yugoslavia's Prime Minister.
Milosevic thinks of him as the figurehead to deal with the
international community. Prime Minister Panic attempts to
convince Milosevic to resign as President of Serbia, offering
to help to set him up in California as the director of a new
American-Yugoslav bank. On the 10th, Prime Minister Panic
rushes to Helsinki to meet with the US Secretary of State
Baker, who is attending a ministerial conference of the CSCE,
to gain American support for his plan to remove Milosevic.
Secretary Baker rejects his plan as does the acting Secretary
of State, Eagleburger, who declines to meet with Panic in
a subsequent attempt by the Prime Minister to convince the
Americans. In the following weeks, without outside political
support from Washington but still determined to remove Milosevic,
Panic turns to President Dobrica Cosic and to General Zivota
Panic. Panic discusses with them the possibility of either
arresting Milosevic or defeating him in the upcoming elections.
Cosic and Zivota Panic do not rule out the first possibility
but they consider US help necessary. Unable to get the crucial
support of the US, Panic confronts Milosevic privately. During
the International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia held
in London on August 26/27, Panic openly condemns Serbia's
repression in Kosovo and does "not speak for Greater Serbia
but for greater peace." This move represents Panic's ultimate
effort to show to the Americans his intentions and therefore
to obtain their help. But it also marks the watershed for
Milosevic, who immediately upon his return to Belgrade decides
to block Panic.17
6 August - The United States establishes the first permanent
delegation to the CSCE in Vienna and requests that the CSCE
send its unarmed observer missions to Vojvodina, Sandzak and
Macedonia, given the CSCE's recent creation of a "conflict
prevention center" to support "preventive diplomacy." The
CSCE quickly sends fact-finding and rapporteur missions to
the region and supports the sanctions and humanitarian measures
taken by the UN and individual states. These "missions of
long duration" provide an early warning system for any spillover
of the hostilities into the regions of Serbia (Kosovo, Vojvodina,
and Sandzak), Montenegro, and Macedonia. A CSCE Mission office
is soon established in Pristina, with branch offices in the
cities of Pec and Prizren. Some thought is being given to
the deployment of United Nations Protection Forces (UNPROFOR),
now serving in Bosnia and Herzegovina to Kosovo as well, but
Serbian authorities had only grudgingly accepted the presence
of the relatively small CSCE mission in Pristina and expressed
no willingness to internationalize the Kosovo situation further.18
31 August-4 September - In the Assembly of the FRY a group
of deputies from the Serbian Radical Party and the Socialist
Party of Serbia initiate a debate on casting a vote of no
confidence in Federal Prime Minister Milan Panic and his government
(the successors to the Ante Markovic Federal government).
They claim that Prime Minister Panic exceeded his authority
at previous meetings of the London Conference, in which he
made clear to Lord Carrington and Cyrus Vance his willingness
to discuss issues involving Kosovo.
2 October - President George Bush submits a seven-item proposal
to the UN Security Council for the adoption of a new Resolution
banning all flights in BH airspace except for those to be
approved by the UN. The President also announces that the
USA will be more engaged, to include military involvement,
in all actions of offering assistance and protection of humanitarian
convoys for Bosnia and in protecting the presence of foreign
observers in Kosovo.
12 October - Peaceful demonstrations are held in almost all
towns in Kosovo-Metohija, at the invitation of the Organizing
Committee for Protests, which is backed by all Albanian political
parties. The protesters present six demands: immediate reopening
of schools for Albanian pupils, students and teachers; abolishment
of emergency and forced measures in student hostels; recovery
of financial resources; cessation of repression; and accountability
for all who participated in the destruction of the educational
system in Kosovo. The next day strong police forces in Pristina
prevent a new attempt of Albanians to gather in large numbers.
14 October - Two-day talks on the problems of education in
the Albanian language end in Pristina, the first attempt by
the Panic government to redress the abuses of Milosevic and
Serbia. Participating in the talks are representatives of
the Government of the FRY, representatives of Albanians, and
representatives of the special group for Kosovo of the Geneva
Conference, led by Ambassador Gerd Arens. Representatives
of the CSCE Monitoring Mission attend the meeting. The basis
for the talks is the paper "Proposed Measures for Solution
of the Problems in Education and Culture of the Albanian Minority"
in 14 points, prepared by the FRY Ministry for Education and
Culture, under the leadership of Milan Panic. The proposals,
among other things, include: 1) conditions for regular start
of instruction in the Albanian language in primary schools
in Kosovo; 2) preparation of specific segments of curricula
referring to the national culture and history of Albanians
and the Albanian minority in Kosovo; and 3) investigation
of the possibility to allow the students to finish their studies
in accordance with the law that was in force when they originally
enrolled at the universities two years earlier. Participants
agree to hold the next meeting in Belgrade.
15 October - Federal Prime Minister Milan Panic visits Kosovo.
After talks with representatives of Serbs and Montenegrins,
he meets with Albanian leader Ibrahim Rugova. They agree on
the establishment of joint task forces that would deal with
legislation, education, and provision of information in the
Albanian language. There is no discussion about the status
of Kosovo because Rugova's pro-independence stance remains
a point of contention.
29 October - Co-Chairmen of the Conference on Yugoslavia
David Owen and Cyrus Vance visit Pristina together with Prime
Minister Panic. They discuss outstanding issues concerning
the recent loss of Kosovo autonomy. However, at the press
conference, Lord Owen states that "Kosovo should have a special
status or autonomy, but only within Serbia."
26 November - A US State Department representative states
US policy in regard to Kosovo's status within the FRY. The
US strongly believes that the only way to resolve the crisis
situation in Kosovo is to grant the people of Kosovo all the
rights and full autonomy in the framework of the present borders.
He declares, "We recognize the autonomy, but not the independence
of Kosovo."
17 December - Secretary of State Eagleburger meets in Brussels
with Dr. Ibrahim Rugova. Eagleburger expresses general US
support for the nonviolent tactics of the LDK in Kosovo, and
pledges some humanitarian aid.19
19 December - Early elections are held in the Republic of
Serbia for 250 deputies of the Assembly of Serbia. Kosovar
Albanians abstain. The Socialist Party of Serbia wins the
greatest number of votes and seats, supporting continuing
rule by Milosevic. The opposition remains fractured between
a plethora of disunited, non-nationalist parties and the ultra-nationalist
Serbian Radical Party, which itself draws 14.4% of the vote
and 39 seats.
20 December - Federal, Republican and Provincial parliamentary
and local elections are held in the FRY. Slobodan Milosevic
receives 56 % of the vote for Serbian Republican President,
while the second-ranked candidate Milan Panic wins roughly
32%. Panic's ploy to unseat Milosevic and undo his Serbian
powerbase is thwarted, in part because Kosovar Albanians boycott
the election, depriving Panic of support from roughly 25%
of the electorate.
29 December - Partially in response to intelligence
information that Milosevic is planning to escalate the conflict
in Kosovo, the Bush Administration warns Milosevic that the
United States is now prepared to take unilateral military
action, without European cooperation, if the Serbs spark a
conflict in Kosovo or Macedonia, or if they use the
JNA to escalate and extend the Bosnian conflict into neighboring
areas. Believing after the events of 1991-1992 that Milosevic
has the desire and capabilities to expand the war, this sudden
deterrent threat is meant to contain the conflict within existing
lines. The deterrence threat, known as the "Christmas warning"
is given in the form of a brief message conveyed through the
US Embassy in Belgrade.
29 December - Deputies of both chambers of the Federal Assembly
of the FRY cast a vote of no confidence against Federal Prime
Minister Milan Panic, thereby ending strong Federal opposition
to Milosevic's Republican-based Kosovo policies.
1993
Early January - After the New York Times acquired and published
the text of the Christmas Warning of 29 December, which was
meant to be a secret message only for Milosevic, the Bush
administration worried that Rugova or more extreme Kosovar
Albanian leaders would take the warning as permission to escalate
and break away from the FRY. The Christmas Warning was therefore
soon followed by another separate diplomatic communication
to Rugova and the LDK, stating that the US did not support
secession from the FRY and would not use NATO or US forces
to come to their aid in the event of secession.
February - The Clinton Administration reiterates the Christmas
Warning to Milosevic a few weeks after President Clinton's
inauguration. This Warning stands in the background as implicit
US policy until escalation by Milosevic in the Drenica region
of Kosovo in February 1998, at which time the US fails to
act on its longstanding deterrence threat (see entries below).
18 April - The US Commission on Security and Cooperation
in Europe sends a high-level delegation to the former Yugoslavia.
As summarized by the Final Report of the United States CSCE
Mission,20
[T]he delegation heard that the situation in Kosovo was
getting worse, and that there was a need to establish Kosovo
as a UN protectorate and to deploy peacekeeping troops.
. . . The delegation responded by stressing that its primary
concern is the poor human rights situation, noting the limited
international support for Kosovo's independence. Asked whether
the restoration of autonomy and a dramatic improvement in
the human rights would be sufficient, at least in the short
term, the Albanian leadership acknowledged that it would
be a positive step since Kosovo is at the edge of war.
20 May - US President Bill Clinton states that the US is
not ready to send troops to Bosnia-Herzegovina "to fight on
one side in the civil war." The main aims of the US are to
prevent the spread of conflict and to protect innocent populations
from ethnic cleansing. Furthermore, all actions will be undertaken
through, and in agreement with, the United Nations.
22 May - After several days of negotiations, the ministers
of foreign affairs of the US, United Kingdom, Russia, France
and Spain adopt the "Action Program" for peace in Bosnia.
In addition to humanitarian and sanctions policies concerning
the war in Bosnia-Herzegovenia, the 13-point Program mandates
an increase in the number of international monitors in Kosovo
and the deployment of UNPROFOR in Macedonia to check the spread
of war.
Early July - The CSCE missions in the FRY are expelled by
Belgrade authorities, ending formal international observation
of Kosovo Province.21
7-9 July - At an economic summit of the G-7 countries, the
participants state: "Deeply concerned about the situation
in Kosovo, we call on the Serbian Government to reverse its
decision to expel the CSCE monitors from Kosovo and elsewhere
in Serbia and to agree to a significant increase in their
numbers."22
1994
During the heating up of the civil war in Bosnia-Herzegovina
and the frantic international attempt to prevent the spread
of the conflict two significant events occurred to undermine
stability in the Kosovo region of Serbia:
- In June, during the elections to the LDK executive board,
for the first time Rugova begins to face opposition. The LDK
leader is criticized for his non-violent strategy by a radical
group composed primarily of people who had been arrested after
the 1981 demonstrations. Among them, Hyadet Hyseni, who had
served 10 years of a 15 year sentence after 1981 and who later
became a KLA leader, advocates greater reliance on confrontational
tactics such as strikes. Although the radical faction takes
control of the 55 member executive board, Rugova is overwhelmingly
reelected president.
- At a meeting in Bonn, the Kosovo Albanian Prime Minister
Bukoshi breaks with LDK leader Rugova. The split results in
a major reduction of the LDK's ability to support their activities
in favor of a "parallel State" in Kosovo since Bukoshi controls
the money collected from the Albanian diaspora.
1995
4 August - The Croatian armed forces launch operation
"Storm" against the Republic of Srpska Krajina, using artillery,
air force and infantry units. All major towns and villages
in Krajina territory are under artillery and missile fire.
5 August - The Krajina Serb Army, the political leadership
of the Republic of Srpska Krajina, and most of the population
leave Knin, while the Army command retreats to its "reserve
position." Croatian forces seize Knin without any considerable
resistance by Serb forces.
30 August - NATO planes, supported by the UN Rapid Reaction
Force's artillery, attack Bosnian Serb emplacements around
Sarajevo.
1 September - Commander of UNPROFOR General Bernard Janvier
demands that the Bosnian Serbs pull back their heavy weapons
to a distance of at least 20 km around Sarajevo as a condition
for the suspension of NATO air strikes.
5 September - NATO planes resume air strikes on the positions
of Bosnian Serbs around Sarajevo.
1 November - At a State Department "Town Meeting,"
Secretary Christopher delivers a speech on US national interests
and the future challenges facing US foreign policy. He mentions
Kosovo only once in the entire text-in the context of the
strategic danger of "conflict spillover:" However, the importance
of Kosovo is recognized. Part of these remarks would prove
to be ironically prescient:
[In the event of conflict spillover], Albania could intervene
to protect the ethnic Albanians who live in the southern
Serbian province of Kosovo. Warfare there could unleash
a massive flow of refugees into Macedonia, destabilizing
that fragile country and, potentially, drawing in, on opposite
sides, Greece and Turkey-two NATO allies that are also regional
rivals. . . . If the fighting in Yugoslavia resumes-and
if it escalates and spreads-it would put increasing strain
on relations between the United States and Russia. A continuation
of the war also would threaten the viability, even the survival,
of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.23
1 November - The peace negotiations on Bosnia commence in
Dayton, Ohio, USA. The participants in the Bosnia Proximity
Peace Talks are delegations of the FRY, the Republic of Croatia,
and the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
20 November - After twenty days of talks in Dayton, the peace
negotiations are completed by initialing the General Framework
Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina and 12 Annexes
to the Agreement. The international status of Kosovo is not
a bargaining issue in the talks, although the chief US negotiator
Ambassador Richard Holbrooke tells Milosevic that the US will
maintain an "outer wall of sanctions" until the humanitarian
and political issues of Kosovo and other Provinces of the
FRY are addressed by Milosevic.
22 November - The UN Security Council adopts Resolution 1022
on the suspension of sanctions against the FR Yugoslavia.
The Security Council decides that "the measures which were
introduced or re-affirmed by Resolutions [passed and implemented
between 1992-1995] should be indefinitely suspended and this
immediately becomes effective." The UN Security Council also
adopts Resolution 1021 on gradual lifting of the embargo on
arms delivery to the states which had been created in the
territory of the former Yugoslavia. Kosovo is not mentioned
in these resolutions.
4 December - The EU suspends the sanctions against the FRY
under the same conditions as prescribed by UN Security Council
Resolution 1022. Another decision on suspension of the embargo
on trade and other relations with the FRY is made in Brussels
at the meeting of ministers of foreign affairs of the EU member
states. Issues concerning Kosovo are not part of this decision
process.
8-9 December - The third International Conference on the
Former Yugoslavia (ICFY), the Peace Implementation Conference,
is held in London. The Conference is attended by the ministers
of foreign affairs of 43 countries and representatives of
12 international organizations, including neighbors of the
former Yugoslavia, the European Union, the Organization of
Islamic Conference, Japan and China, the World Bank, the International
Monetary Fund, envoys of the United Nations, and member states
of NATO. The Conference concludes that "a new structure is
required to manage peace implementation." A Peace Implementation
Council (PIC), composed of all those groups and states parties
attending the Conference, would subsume ICFY. It is also decided
that a Steering Board of the PIC would give "political guidance
on peace implementation," and would be composed of representatives
of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom,
United States, the Presidency of the European Union, the European
Commission and the Organization of Islamic Conference. The
Conference approved the designation of Carl Bildt as High
Representative, who would continue in his role as EU Mediator
for the Former Yugoslavia.
15 December - The UN Security Council adopts Resolution 1033
giving IFOR-the new international force under the aegis of
NATO-a one-year mandate to implement the General Framework
Agreement.
16 December - The North Atlantic Council of NATO adopts the
guidelines for operation "Joint Endeavour in Bosnia." At the
EU's annual summit, leaders of 15 member countries of the
European Union adopt a separate declaration on the former
Yugoslavia. The European Union agrees to contribute to the
implementation of the civil part of the peace agreement, and
also announces its decision to immediately normalize EU relations
with the FRY and exchange ambassadors. The problems in Kosovo
are not a significant part of these NATO and EU decisions.
1996
4 February - In a Belgrade press conference Secretary of
State Warren Christopher announces the establishment of a
United States Information Service (USIS) office in Pristina.
The office is established with the permission of Milosevic,
and is based on the recommendations of a group of independent
Balkan experts who toured the region under the US Council
on Foreign Relations in 1995.24
1 September - Previous mediation efforts of the Rome-based
Catholic NGO Comunita' di Sant'Egidio results in a
Memorandum of Understanding between LDK leader Ibrahim Rugova
and Slobodan Milosevic on educational reform in Kosovo Province.
It provides for "the return of the Albanian students and teachers
back to schools" in Kosovo. Signed in Belgrade, it includes
an unpublished annex called "First Measures of Normalisation
of the Education System in Kosovo" or "Rome Document," which
provides "a list of school facilities to which Albanian students
are to be given access." The Memorandum itself calls for the
establishment of a "33" mixed mediation group to agree on
the technical details of implementation, thereby creating
a potential brokering role for other NGOs or even representatives
of State governments. Details such as financing, the actual
timetable of implementation, and even definitions of key terms
are left open for agreement at later implementation talks.25
3 and 17 November - Federal, national, and local municipal
(city) elections are carried out in Serbia. Milosevic resorts
to fraud and manipulation of the process to undermine the
results of the national elections, but he does not succeed
in manipulating the results of the relatively free municipal
elections. Almost every major city in rump-Yugoslavia overthrows
the representatives of Milosevic's socialist party machine,
symbolizing revolt by the citizenry against the prevailing
status quo. Milosevic refuses to acknowledge the results in
these localities, prompting an immediate and massive anti-Milosevic
campaign of demonstrations and riots that involve hundreds
of thousands of Serbs in almost every major urban area. In
response, Milosevic resorts to police repression and also
shuts down most non-state media outlets. The protests involve
extreme nationalists in the Serbian Radical Party (which champions
a greater Serbia), moderate opposition parties, and college
and high school students.26 However, the opposition forces are seriously divided, owing
in part to personal differences between long-time opposition
leader Vuk Draskovic and leader of the centrist Zajedno coalition
Zoran Djindjic.
12 December - The US Commission on Security and Cooperation
in Europe (often referred to as the "Helsinki Commission")
holds a Congressional hearing entitled "Political Turmoil
in Serbia." It is significant because it represents a coalescing
of opinion within the internationalist-minded circles of the
US Congress on the issue of Serbian democratization. By inviting
Serbs or US citizens of Serbian origin to speak against Milosevic,
it is an attempt by the Commission and Congress to signal
to the Clinton Administration that internal Serbian politics
are an important aspect of the problems in the region. Commission
Chairman Christopher Smith asserts in his opening remarks,
"If force and increasing repression is used against those
struggling to bring change to Serbia . . . .Congress should
do more than merely condemn it. . . .the United States needs
to build policies that will encourage democratic development
in Serbia." However, he also offers a cautionary note about
the ultimate effectiveness of the Serbian opposition: "The
opposition's unity . . . is fragile. The unity has been forged
by necessity between genuine democrats on the one hand and
nationalists on the other."27
1997
7-9 April - A Serb-Albanian Roundtable titled "Toward Peaceful
Accommodation in Kosovo" is held in New York under the auspices
of the Princeton-based Project on Ethnic Relations (PER).
The PER roundtable is backed by the US Department of State
both financially and diplomatically. Participants from Kosovo
are senior officials of the Democratic League of Kosova (LDK)
and other mainstream parties, although Ibrahim Rugova refuses
to attend. Prominent Serb opposition leaders, including representatives
from Zajedno Coalition, attend the talks as well, but Belgrade
refuses to send any government officials. The US State Department
sends its own observers. Due to continuing disagreements over
"final status" questions, the only product is an extremely
short declaration of "Jointly-Agreed Positions" which includes
most notably the assertion that "An interim solution requires
a democratic Kosovo and a democratic Serbia."28
Summer - The Rome-based Catholic NGO Comunita di Sant'Egidio
renews its mediation efforts in response to Belgrade's failure
to initiate implementation negotiations for the 1 September
1996 Education Agreement.29
9-10 October - A 33 mixed mediation group (representatives
from Sant'Egidio, the Belgrade regime, and the international
community-Ambassador Gerd Ahrens-and the three communities
in Kosovo) meets first in Pristina and then in Belgrade to
discuss the Education Agreement. The second Belgrade meeting
collapses, largely because of continuing disagreements over
the status and rights of the Albanian University-level students,
as well as disputes over who would control both the school
buildings and the content of class materials.
January-December - Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) attacks on
police stations, police patrols, and political figures in
Serb-dominated Kosovo gradually increase throughout the year.
In all, Serbian authorities recorded 49 KLA attacks with bombs
or light weapons during 1997, a substantial year-long increase
from the 18 recorded incidents of 1996. Towards the end of
the year, the KLA start to harass and attack Serbian refugees
and Serbian residents as well as policemen.
Go to Kosovo Chronology, 1998
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